Canada: Total Oils

2014/2015(f)

Canola (Rapeseed)

Soybean

Total

Crush

7,600

1,600

9,200

Production

3,335

290

3,625

Imports

80

35

115

Exports

2,600

110

2,710

2013/2014(e)

Canola (Rapeseed)

Soybean

Total

Crush

7,100

1,600

8,700

Production

3,120

290

3,410

Imports

80

35

115

Exports

2,550

110

2,660

2012/2013

Canola (Rapeseed)

Soybean

Total

Crush

6,979

1,539

8,518

Production

3,041

278

3,319

Imports

83

31

114

Exports

2,348

92

2,440

All data in 1,000 metric tons.Marketing years: Aug/July.

Increased domestic crush in canola is expected to lift total oils production in 2015/2016 to 3.625 MMT from estimated 2014/2015 levels of 3.41 MMT. This is nearly a 6% increase over 2014/2015 levels and is reflective of the trend toward increased crush capacity that has been built up in Canada over the last 5 years. High production and supplies will keep imports relatively flat in 2015/2016. Increased production and a depreciated Canadian dollar will help support exports in 2015/2016. Exports in 2015/2016 are forecast to reach 2.70 MMT, a two percent increase over anticipated 2014/2015 levels of 2.660 MMT.

CANOLA (RAPESEED) OIL

Production, Supply and Distribution Estimates:

Oil, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Aug 2013

Aug 2014

Aug 2015

Canada

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

6,979

6,979

7,200

7,100

0

7,600

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.4382

0.4357

0.4389

0.4394

0

0.4388

Beginning Stocks

71

71

211

164

0

54

Production

3,050

3,041

3,160

3,120

0

3,335

MY Imports

83

83

80

80

0

80

MY Imp. from U.S.

78

78

80

80

0

80

MY Imp. from EU

0

4

0

3

0

3

Total Supply

3,204

3,195

3,451

3,364

0

3,469

MY Exports

2,348

2,348

2,650

2,550

0

2,600

MY Exp. to EU

0

17

0

20

0

20

Industrial Dom. Cons.

85

123

90

200

0

240

Food Use Dom. Cons.

560

560

570

560

0

560

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

645

683

660

760

0

800

Ending Stocks

211

164

141

54

0

69

Total Distribution

3,204

3,195

3,451

3,364

0

3,469

1000 MT, PERCENT

An increase in domestic crush capacity and therefore domestic canola oil supplies is expected to result in exports of 2.60 MMT in 2015/2016. Year to date export data suggest that canola oil exports will reach 2.55 MMT in marketing year 2014/2015. The top 5 markets for canola oil in 2015/2016 were the United States, China, Chile, South Korea, and Mexico.

The increase in domestic industrial usage of canola oil in marketing year 2014/2015 and again in 2015/2016 is due to new, canola-based Canadian biodiesel production coming on-line in 2014. Canada's biodiesel production is estimated to reach 300 million liters in 2014 (calendar year) and forecast to reach 395 million liters in 2015 (calendar year), but will remain below the level needed to meet the federal mandate. Canola oil as a feedstock for biodiesel is estimated to account for nearly 56 percent of Canadian biodiesel production in 2014 and 66 percent by 2015.

Marketing Efforts: The Canola Council of Canada has been putting significant marketing efforts into educating the public on how canola oil can be healthy oil. A growing middle class is looking for healthy oil that is low in saturated fat. The Canola Council is working on educating consumers in Asian markets on how canola differs from other rapeseed oils. The indication from the U.S. FDA that intends to work to remove all transfats from the American diet may mean that demand for high oleic canola oil will grow significantly as the food service industry will have to move to adjust. The high oleic canola oil offers the benefits of high stability and a long shelf life. High oleic canola oil is also popular in Japan due to the fact that it is odorless. Anticipated increases in demand for high oleic canola oil has prompted the Canola Council to set aggressive targets to increase production of high oleic canola oil. The Canola Council has set a target that 33% of the target 22 million canola acres in 2025 be seeded to high oleic or specialty oils canola varieties.

EU Trade Deal: The Canadian canola industry is looking forward to the implementation of the Canada-Europe Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement which is expected to be implemented by 2016. The industry sees two main benefits from the agreement – the elimination of oil tariffs and provision to reduce biotechnology related non-tariff barriers. Tariffs on canola oil will be eliminated immediately upon implementation and the industry estimates that this could provide exporters the opportunity to increase sales by up to 90 million dollars.

SOYBEAN OIL

Production, Supply and Distribution Estimates:

Oil, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Aug 2013

Aug 2014

Aug 2015

Canada

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Crush

1,537

1,539

1,675

1,600

0

1,600

Beginning Stocks

5

5

7

7

0

8

Production

278

278

303

290

0

290

MY Imports

31

31

33

35

0

35

MY Imp. from U.S.

31

31

33

35

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

314

314

343

332

0

333

MY Exports

92

92

110

110

0

110

MY Exp. to EU

0

10

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

215

215

223

214

0

215

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

215

215

223

214

0

215

Ending Stocks

7

7

10

8

0

8

Total Distribution

314

314

343

332

0

333

1000 MT, PERCENT

Demand for soybean oil from export markets is expected to remain relatively stable in 2015/2016, and is forecast to remain close to 2014/2015 export levels of 110 TMT. The biodiesel market is reaching maturity in the United States, Canada's number one export market in 2013/2014 with nearly an 80% share of total soybean oil exports