Beef and Veal:

  • Exports by major traders are revised nearly 3 percent higher from the October forecast to a record 10.2 million tons. Larger shipments from India and to a lesser extent the EU and Paraguay more than offset declines by Brazil, Uruguay, and the United States. Imports by a number of oil-reliant countries including Russia are reduced significantly on economic challenges such as declining oil revenues and weaker currencies.
  • U.S. production is revised up 2 percent to 11.1 million tons on higher cattle weights. Exports are revised 4 percent lower to 1.1 million tons due to a stronger dollar.

Pork:

  • Exports by major traders are revised 5 percent lower to 6.8 million tons as a reduction in shipments by China, the United States and Brazil are not expected to offset gains by the EU. Aggregate import demand is negatively impacted by lower Russian imports due to its economic woes as well as the ban on shipments from key suppliers and disease-based restrictions. EU export expansion is supported by favorable prices in a number of markets including China.
  • U.S. production is revised 1 percent higher to a record 11.0 million tons as a lower incidence of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) is expected to bolster slaughter-ready hog supplies. Despite increased production and competitive domestic prices, U.S. exports are forecast 9 percent lower to nearly 2.2 million tons as a strong dollar curbs demand.

Broiler Meat:

  • Exports by major traders are revised 5 percent lower as declines in Brazil and the United States more than offset gains by the EU. Brazil's shipments are constrained by slow economic growth in a number of countries despite opportunities in markets currently restricting the United States. Argentina's exports to Venezuela are expected to contract due to economic weakness in Venezuela and lower oil prices. Angola's imports are forecast to decline due to temporary trade restrictions and currency shortages.
  • U.S. production is revised 1 percent higher to a record 18.0 million tons on increased slaughter and heavier weights. Despite increased supplies, U.S. exports are revised 9 percent lower to 3.0 million tons due to a stronger dollar and highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI)-related trade restrictions with some countries.

Summary:

Major Traders and U.S. Trade of Beef, Pork, and Broiler Meat

Beef and Veal, Pork: 1,000 Tons Carcass Weight Equivalent / Broiler Meat: 1,000 Tons Ready to Cook Equivalent

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 (p)

2015 (f)

Percent

Change

2014 to

2015

Production

Beef and Veal

58,485

58,149

58,511

59,512

59,690

59,006

-1.1%

Pork

102,973

103,565

106,950

108,821

110,476

110,874

0.4%

Broiler Meat

78,357

81,346

83,416

84,606

86,348

87,328

1.1%

Total

239,815

243,060

248,877

252,939

256,514

257,208

0.3%

Consumption

Beef and Veal

57,391

56,503

57,032

57,818

57,629

56,739

-1.5%

Pork

102,786

103,154

106,342

108,361

109,954

110,305

0.3%

Broiler Meat

77,182

80,021

81,776

83,091

84,668

85,540

1.0%

Total

237,359

239,678

245,150

249,270

252,251

252,584

0.1%

Imports

Beef and Veal

6,649

6,448

6,680

7,484

7,890

7,797

-1.2%

Pork

5,845

6,557

6,858

6,595

6,363

6,025

-5.3%

Broiler Meat

7,805

8,227

8,543

8,681

8,843

8,583

-2.9%

Total

20,299

21,232

22,081

22,760

23,096

22,405

-3.0%

Exports

Beef and Veal

7,794

8,072

8,138

9,126

10,003

10,200

2.0%

Pork

6,029

6,954

7,268

7,029

6,887

6,816

-1.0%

Broiler Meat

8,904

9,573

10,088

10,255

10,489

10,364

-1.2%

Total

22,727

24,599

25,494

26,410

27,379

27,380

0.0%

U.S. Exports

Beef and Veal

1,043

1,263

1,112

1,175

1,167

1,098

-5.9%

Pork

1,915

2,356

2,440

2,264

2,204

2,155

-2.2%

Broiler Meat

3,067

3,165

3,300

3,332

3,313

3,030

-8.5%

Total

6,025

6,784

6,852

6,771

6,684

6,283

-6.0%

U.S. Market Share (%) of Exports Among Major Traders

Beef and Veal

13%

16%

14%

13%

12%

11%

Pork

32%

34%

34%

32%

32%

32%

Broiler Meat

34%

33%

33%

32%

32%

29%

Combined

27%

28%

27%

26%

24%

23%

Notes: Totals include only those countries that make up USDA's official PSD database are reported. This means totals do not encompass all production, consumption, and trade, but rather the sum of those countries reported in USDA's database, which represent the most important markets in the world meat PSD situation. In an attempt to capture these major players, the list of countries reported changes periodically.