Report Highlights:

For marketing year (MY) 2015/16, planted area of rapeseed is expected to diminish 2.3 percent in response to declining rapeseed prices as some producers switch to grains. As of the first week of April, the rapeseed crop development was assessed well with good prospects for abundant harvest. Poland's total production of rapeseed for MY 2015/16 is forecast to decline by 7 percent to 3 million metric tons (MMT). FAS Warsaw is forecasting the lower production number than in last (record) 2014 year because of predicted lower acreage and more average yield.

General Information

Area, yields and production of rapeseed in Poland

Poland

Area

(000) Ha

Yield

MT/Ha

Total Production (000) MT

2006-2010 year average

790

2.69

2,123

2012*

830

2.59

2,150

2013*

930

3.19

2,970

2014 estimates

942

3.43

3,227

2015 forecast*

920

3.26

3,000

2013-2014 change (%)

+1.3

+7.5

+8.7

2014-2015 change projected (%)

-2.3

-5.0

-7.0

Source: Poland's Main Statistical Office

* FAS Warsaw estimates and forecast

Poland is one of the leading producers of rapeseed in the EU, following Germany, France and the U.K. In Poland rapeseed acreage constitutes 95 percent of oilseeds area and has been rapidly increasing since 2004, the year of Poland's accession to the EU. Before the EU accession, Poland's stable domestic demand which was at the level of 1 MMT (million metric tons), supported by rapeseed meal as a byproduct. During the last ten years rapeseed production increased by more than three times, over 3 MMT in 2014, driven by the expansion of acreage of plantings and adoption of modern technology. Use of qualified hybrid expanded from 0.5 to over 0.9 million hectares.

Production Supply Demand Relations

MY 2015/16

For 2015/16 the rapeseed crop is forecast at 3 MMT, with 5 percent lower yield than the last (record) 2014 year. Plantings of winter rapeseed have been assessed well till the end of March 2015. There were no winter kill. Rapeseed acreage plantings for the harvest 2015 is estimated lower than last year. It amounts to 920,000 hectares, development of rapeseed acreage has stopped in Poland, mostly due to uncertainty connected with changes in the EU for the last two years made some farmers change their sowing preferences.

MY 2014/15

For MY 2014/15 the rapeseed harvest is estimated at 3.2 MMT, a record number in history.

The profitability of rapeseed production was low and in line with the 2013 results. Low rapeseed farm gate prices were highly exceeded the average results of the last six years. This good yield resulted not only from favorable weather conditions the intensive use of new hybrid rapeseed varieties. The quality of seeds is assessed as well.

A record harvest was followed by a record crush of 2.6 MMT.

Trade

In 2014/15 the good harvest was followed by likely increased export potential for Poland. The export volume represents almost 30 percent of total domestic rapeseed production. Traditionally rapeseed is exported almost 100 percent to EU countries. There was an exception in MY 2013/14 when some quantity was exported to non EU countries mostly Mexico and Canada. For many years Germany has been the main purchaser of Polish rapeseed (70-80 percent of total export).

Sales usually accelerate during the first months after harvest.

In the first 6 months of 2014/15 MY over 0.7 MMT of rapeseed was exported. Despite a record crop in 2014/15 MY rapeseed imports are projected higher than in 2013/14. Total imports are forecast at 370,000 MT. In the first 6 months of 2014/15 MY Poland imported 120,000 MT of rapeseed, almost the same volume as last year.

Rapeseed trade, thousand Metric Tons (MY begins July 1st)

Poland

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

20014/15*

Rapeseed import

604

340

191

370

EU 28

222

105

59

120

Non EU 28

382

235

132

250

Rapeseed export

146

346

726

900

EU 28

146

346

668

900

Non EU 28

0

0

58

0

Rapeseed trade balance

-458

6

535

530

EU 28

-76

241

609

780

Non EU 28

-382

-235

-74

-250

Source: Eurostat, *FAS Warsaw estimates

Rapeseed meal trade, thousand Metric Tons (MY begins July 1st)

Poland

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

20014/15*

Rapeseed meal import

18

53

61

55

EU 28

16

48

40

35

Non EU 28

2

5

21

20

Rapeseed meal export

458

542

710

765

EU 28

458

536

706

760

Non EU 28

0

6

4

5

Rapeseed meal trade balance

440

489

649

710

EU 28

442

488

666

725

Non EU 28

-2

1

-17

-15

Source: Eurostat, *FAS Warsaw estimates

Rapeseed oil trade, thousand Metric Tons (MY begins July 1st)

Poland

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

20014/15*

Rapeseed oil import

101

94

117

120

EU 28

98

92

110

110

Non EU 28

3

2

7

10

Rapeseed oil export

144

274

483

485

EU 28

144

270

464

470

Non EU 28

0

4

19

15

Rapeseed oil trade balance

43

180

366

365

EU 28

46

178

354

360

Non EU 28

-3

2

12

5

Source: Eurostat, *FAS Warsaw estimates

Plants after winter condition evaluation

In the first half of April 2015, winter rapeseed was in good condition after a mild winter. Unfortunately relatively warm weather increased a threat of diseases and activity of pests. Dry soil conditions lead to less efficient absorption of fertilizers and minerals, mainly nitrogen. Until mid-May the risk of night frost remains a threat to plants.