Report Highlights:

Most C3+2 countries (C3+2: Burkina Faso, Chad, , Mali - Cote d'Ivoire, and Senegal) experienced a bad rainy season with delayed and intermittent rains. Nevertheless, the countries forecast MY2014/15 (Aug/July) seed cotton production at 3.5 million bales (1.8 million tons) representing 2 percent increase compared to USDA official numbers, and 14 percent increase over the previous year's. Burkina Faso remains the top cotton producer in West Africa with 690,000 tons followed by Mali (547,000 tons), Cote d'Ivoire (436,000 tons), Chad (130,000 tons), and Senegal (26,000 tons). Post forecast MY2015/16 seed cotton production at 3.7 million bales (1.9 million tons). Farm gate and input prices have not yet been announced.

Executive Summary:

Despite a bad rainy season with delayed and intermittent rains in C3+2 countries, MY2014/15 seed cotton production is forecast at 3.5 million bales (1.8 million tons) representing 2 percent increase compare to USDA official numbers and 14 percent increase over the previous year production.

The countries forecast MY2015/16 seed cotton production at 3.7 million bales (1.9 million tons).

Most countries are still in the ginning process. Reported production numbers could change after the process ends but Post does not expect major changes except for Cote d'Ivoire which still maintains its initial forecast at 440,000 tons but believes that it could go higher.

Farm gate cotton price and input prices are expected to be announced in late April or early May, 2015.

MY 2014/15 cotton update for selected West African countries and forecast for MY2015/16

Burkina Faso

MY 2014/15 seed cotton production for Burkina Faso is estimated at 690,000 tons (1,331 bales), which is similar to USDA official numbers. It represents 7 percent increase from the previous year's.

The total area harvested for MY 2014/15 is estimated at 660,592 hectares of which Bt cotton accounts for 69 percent (446,000 hectares).

Yield is estimated at 1.079 tons per hectare.

MY 2014/15 fixed prices for fertilizer and urea dropped five percent from 15,500 F CFA ($31) per 50 kg bag in MY 2013/14 to 14,800 F CFA ($29.6) per 50 kg bag in MY 2014/15.

Burkina Faso forecasts seed cotton production for MY2015/16 at 531,000 tons, a 20 percent decrease from the previous year's. Farm gate price for the MY2015/16 has not yet been announced. However, it is expected to be less than the previous year price because of the decreasing trend of the international price. Continuous declining cotton prices could discourage farmers from growing more cotton during MY 2015/16. Therefore, estimates have been lowered down.

In addition, subsidized input prices for in MY2015/16 could also be less than the previous year.

Mali

Mali remains the second largest cotton producing country after Burkina Faso with 1,060 bales (547, 000 tons) of seed cotton in MY 2014/15 planted over 538,000 hectares. Yield is expected to reach 1,015 tons per hectare. This production number is the same as USDA official number, representing a 24 percent increase from the previous year.

The Compagnie Malienne pour le Développement des Textiles (CMDT) anticipates seed cotton production for MY2015/16 at 650,000 tons, a 9 percent increase compared to the previous year amount.

Similar to other countries, Mali has not yet announced farm gate and input prices for MY25015/16.

Cote d'Ivoire

Cote d'Ivoire forecasts MY 2014/15 seed cotton production at 841,000 bales (436,000 tons) which is the initial target but the Association Interprofessionnelle de la Filiere Coton (INTERCOTON), in charge of organizing the cotton sector, believes that production numbers will exceed the established target since they haven't yet completed the ginning process.

So far, MY2014/15 seed cotton production represents 8 percent increase compared to the previous year production and 4 percent decrease compared to USDA official numbers.

Cote d'Ivoire expects to harvest 414,000 hectares of seed cotton in MY 2014/15, with expected yield of 1,036 tons per hectares.

Senegal

MY 2014/15 seed cotton production in Senegal is estimated at 50,000 bales (26,000 tons), representing 25 percent increase compared to USDA official numbers, and 10 percent decrease compared to the previous year.

This decrease is due to a bad rainy season comprising of late start and intermittent rains. Nevertheless, yield is expected to reach 1,059 tons per hectare compared to 0.850 tons per hectare are initially forecasted.

Area harvested is estimated at 25,000 hectares.

Senegal has not yet announced its forecast for MY2015/16, but Post forecasts 58,000 bales (30,000 tons) assuming the rainy season is favorable.

Chad

Chad's seed cotton production continues to increase since the beginning of the new company Cotontchad SN.

For MY 2014/15 seed cotton production is expected to increase by 58 percent compared to the previous year with 250,000 bales (130,000 tons). The data was confirmed by the Marketing Director of Cotontchad.

This growth represents 25 percent increase compared to USDA official numbers.

Area harvested reached 256,000 hectares with a yield of 0.509 tons per hectares.

Cotontchad SN forecasts to produce 216,000 tons of seed cotton for MY2015/16.

Seed Cotton Production: MY 2013/14 – MY 2015/16 (Aug-Jul)

Selected Countries

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

Post Updated Data Production

Post Updated Data Production

Post Forecasted Data Production

Post Updated Data Production

Post Updated Data Production

Post Forecasted Data Production

(000 Bales)

(000 Bales)

(000 Bales)

(000 Tons)

(000 Tons)

(000 Tons)

Burkina Faso

1,249

1,331

1,100

647

690

572

Mali

850

1,060

1,255

440

547

650

Cote d'Ivoire

782

841

850

405

436

440

Chad

158

250

417

82

130

216

Senegal

56

50

58

29

26

30

Total

3,095

3,532

3,680

1,603

1,829

1,908

(Source: FAS Dakar estimates and official country data)

*1 Bale = 480 lbs

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics(1000 Hectares (HA), 1000 480 lb. Bales, PERCENT, KG/HA)

Cotton

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Aug 2013

Aug 2014

Aug 2015

Burkina

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

New post

Area Harvested

645

647

640

660

572

Beginning Stocks

270

270

245

254

380

Production

1,240

1,249

1,325

1,331

1,100

Imports

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,510

1,519

1,570

1,585

1,480

Exports

1,250

1,250

1,175

1,190

1,265

Use

15

15

15

15

15

Loss

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

15

15

15

15

15

Ending Stocks

245

254

380

380

200

Total Distribution

1,510

1,519

1,570

1,585

1,480

Cotton

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Aug 2013

Aug 2014

Aug 2015

Chad

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

New post

Area Harvested

205

205

255

256

430

Beginning Stocks

38

38

35

35

75

Production

152

158

220

250

417

Imports

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

190

196

255

285

492

Exports

145

151

180

200

382

Use

10

10

10

10

0

Loss

0

0

0

0

10

Total Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

10

Ending Stocks

35

35

65

75

100

Total Distribution

190

196

255

285

492

Cotton

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Aug 2013

Aug 2014

Aug 2015

Cote d'Ivoire

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

New post

Area Harvested

357

445

386

414

456

Beginning Stocks

178

178

224

200

291

Production

796

782

877

841

850

Imports

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

974

960

1,101

1,041

1,141

Exports

700

710

725

700

740

Use

50

50

50

50

50

Loss

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

50

50

50

50

50

Ending Stocks

224

200

326

291

351

Total Distribution

974

960

1,101

1,041

1,141

Cotton

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Aug 2013

Aug 2014

Aug 2015

Mali

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

New post

Area Harvested

480

450

570

538

650

Beginning Stocks

246

246

271

271

356

Production

850

850

1,000

1,060

1,255

Imports

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,096

1,096

1,271

1,331

1,611

Exports

800

800

700

950

1,200

Use

25

25

25

25

25

Loss

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

25

25

25

25

25

Ending Stocks

271

271

546

356

386

Total Distribution

1,096

1,096

1,271

1,331

1,611

Cotton

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Aug 2013

Aug 2014

Aug 2015

Senegal

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

New post

Area Harvested

32

32

25

25

29

Beginning Stocks

12

12

13

13

13

Production

56

56

40

50

58

Imports

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

68

68

53

63

71

Exports

50

50

35

45

50

Use

5

5

5

5

5

Loss

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

5

5

5

5

5

Ending Stocks

13

13

13

13

16

Total Distribution

68

68

53

63

71