Wheat Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Wheat

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

May 2016

Nigeria

USDA Official

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USDA Official

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USDA Official

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Area Harvested

70

70

70

70

0

60

Beginning Stocks

200

200

200

200

0

200

Production

70

70

70

70

0

60

MY Imports

4,550

4,550

4,750

4,750

0

5,040

TY Imports

4,550

4,550

4,750

4,750

0

5,040

TY Imp. from U.S.

2,631

2,631

0

2,730

0

2,300

Total Supply

4,820

4,820

5,020

5,020

0

5,300

MY Exports

500

500

600

600

0

400

TY Exports

500

500

600

600

0

400

Feed and Residual

50

50

50

50

0

50

FSI Consumption

4,070

4,070

4,170

4,170

0

4,650

Total Consumption

4,120

4,120

4,220

4,220

0

4,700

Ending Stocks

200

200

200

200

0

200

Total Distribution

4,820

4,820

5,020

5,020

0

5,300

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA

Production:

MY2015/16 wheat production is estimated at 60,000 tons, a decline of approximately 17 percent from the previous year of 70,000 tons. This is largely due to the dislocation of farmers by the Boko Haram insurgence and unfavorable climatic conditions in major wheat growing areas.

Consumption:

Nigeria is a major wheat market for Hard Red Winter. There is also a growing demand for Soft Red Winter for biscuits and cookies; Hard White Wheat for breads and noodles; and Durum Wheat for pasta.

MY2015/16 wheat consumption is estimated at 4.7 million tons, a 17 percent increase from the current MY2014/15 figure of 4.2 million. Several factors are contributing to Nigeria's growth in wheat consumption. In the marketplace, Nigeria's most popular local food is called semolina, a wheat-meal product. For this product, local processors are now using more wheat (preferably imported) than locally sourced staples like cassava flour. This product is widely distributed throughout Nigeria and is becoming very popular in urban areas. Separately, with Boko Haram insurgencies in major growing regions for wheat substitutes, donor organizations are purchasing more wheat and wheat-based products to help feed more than one million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs).

Trade:

Imports

MY2015/16 wheat imports are estimated at 5.0 million tons, a four percent increase due to rising demand for inexpensive and lower quality supplies from the global market. Sources note that the Boko Haram insurgency in northern Nigeria has generated the dislocation of over one million IDPs, mostly farmers. These individuals are settled in refugee camps, and they depend on food donations, which include wheat-based products mainly from imported wheat.

Constraints to U.S. Exports

U.S. trade year exports to Nigeria are estimated at 2.3 million tons for TY2015/16, a 17 percent decrease largely due to import levies. According to trade sources, the U.S. market share of Nigerian wheat imports currently stands at about 55 percent. Prior to mid-year 2012, the United States held more than 90 percent of Nigeria's wheat market. This drastic change in market share is attributed to Nigeria's wheat import reduction measures.

As noted in previous reports, a 15 percent levy on imported wheat grains from all origins pushed the effective duty from 5 to 20 percent. This generated market price increases for wheat and wheat-based products, but there are major challenges, particularly the devaluation of the Nigerian currency, that make it difficult for wheat millers to pass on rising prices to consumers. To remain competitive importers and millers have sought to reduce costs. Some importers have been purchasing inexpensive and lower quality wheat supplies from Ukraine, Russia, and Argentina; and flour millers are blending lower quality wheat with the high quality and more expensive U.S. wheat. The currency devaluation has reduced consumer purchasing power and increased demand for cheaper wheat-based products.