Rice Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Rice, Milled

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Nigeria

USDA Official

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USDA Official

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USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

2,500

2,500

2,300

2,700

0

2,000

Beginning Stocks

885

885

657

607

0

1,300

Milled Production

2,772

2,772

2,550

2,700

0

2,300

Rough Production

4,400

4,400

4,048

4,500

0

4,000

Milling Rate (.9999)

6,300

6,300

6,300

6,300

0

6,300

MY Imports

2,800

3,000

3,500

4,500

0

3,000

TY Imports

3,200

3,000

3,500

4,500

0

3,000

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

10

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6,457

6,657

6,707

7,807

0

6,600

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

5,800

6,000

6,100

6,507

0

6,000

Ending Stocks

657

657

607

1,300

0

600

Total Distribution

6,457

6,657

6,707

7,807

0

6,600

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA

Production:

Post estimates that Nigeria's 2015/16 milled rice production will decline to nearly 2.3 million tons due to unfavorable domestic prices in relation to current global prices. For example, the price of domestic rough rice is over $370 per ton compared to the global price of about $300 per ton. High production and processing costs, coupled with limited finance options for small-scale farmers further restrict local rice production.

Through the ATA policy, the Government of Nigeria sets 2017 as the new target year for Nigeria's self-sufficiency in rice production.

Consumption:

MY2015/16 consumption is estimated at 6.0 million tons. MY2014/15 rice consumption is revised at 6.5 million tons compared to 6 million tons the preceding market year, largely due to rice donations during national elections.

Nigeria's national election in March and April 2015 increased rice demand and import figures. Nigerian politicians employed rice gifts to build goodwill from voters in the country's general elections. Rice importers and distributors also hoarded supplies in anticipation of limited food supplies following a potential post-election crisis.

As mentioned earlier in this report, Boko Haram's insurgency resulted in the displacement of over one million people in northern Nigeria. Similar to wheat and corn, these Internally Displaced Persons depend on rice donations by the government and donor organizations. The MY2014/15 consumption estimate is higher than normal to reflect this unusual high demand.

Trade:

Imports

MY2015/16 imports are estimated at 3.0 million tons. Reportedly, investors in local rice production and distribution are skeptical that current rice import policies and implementations would continue with Nigeria's new government.

MY2014/15 rice imports are revised to 4.5 million tons, up by 1.0 million metric tons. Investors in local rice production enjoy a 40 percent reduction of the 70 percent duty on imported rice. Rice traders without any commitment in domestic rice production however pay the full 70 percent duty. Therefore, investors in local rice production can offset their losses from domestic operation costs and investments by taking advantage of the import quotas and import duty differential policies.

Constraints for U.S. Exports

U.S. rice is highly priced and not competitive in the Nigerian market. Thailand, India, Brazil, and China are the major suppliers to this market.

Import Policy:

On May 26, 2014, the Government of Nigeria approved a new rice policy to promote local investments in rice production/milling. This policy introduced an import duty differential on rice (brown or polished) favoring imports of local rice investors against rice traders with no local rice investment. Investors that have milling capacity with verified Domestic Rice Production Plans (DRPP) enjoy an import duty of 10 percent and a levy of 20 percent. Rice traders (with no commitment in local rice production) will pay an import duty of 10 percent and a levy of 60 percent. This new rice policy also states that importation of brown or polished rice should be limited to the National Supply Gap (NSG) for import-grade rice which a GON ministerial committee determined to be 1.5 million tons. Rice import quotas at the preferential duty of 10 percent and levy 60 percent for 80 percent or more of the NSG will be will be issued to existing and new rice millers/producers.

Stocks:

MY2015/16 beginning stocks will be boosted by large amounts of MY2014/15 rice imports. Post estimates that Nigeria's MY2014/15 ending stocks will reach 1.3 million tons. Major rice importers purchased larger-than-normal supplies for several reasons: to sell during the presidential election campaign; to reserve supplies in anticipation of a national food price crisis after election; and to ensure adequate stocks in fear of a policy change on import quotas and levies by the new government.