Production:

Local soybean production remains minimal and no significant change is expected through MY 15/16.

Copra production in market year (MY) 14/15 is forecast at 2.23 million metric tons (MMT), down from 2.28 MMT in MY 13/14, due to the more-than-expected damage resulting from typhoon Haiyan and an anticipated cyclical decline in yields. Output is expected to slightly increase to 2.30 MMT in MY 15/16 as the lingering downward pressure on copra production from typhoon Haiyan and the cyclical decline begins to relent (assuming favorable weather).

In February 2014, the Presidential Assistant for Food Security and Agricultural Modernization (PAFSAM) reported that infestation by the coconut scale insect (mentioned in the previous annual report) has been contained. While the PAFSAM has declared that the infestation is now under manageable levels, with an estimated 1.6 million coconut trees having been treated by pruning and trunk injection, industry contacts point out that roughly one million infected trees remain.

Lastly, according to the Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA), typhoon Haiyan damaged around 34 million coconut trees (mostly in the eastern Visayas region) and replanting efforts are constrained by a shortage of seedlings.

Consumption:

The lone soybean crusher in the country has very limited capacity and imports a small volume of soybeans each year. Soybean crush in MY 13/14 was pared down to reflect what industry contacts indicate would be the maximum plant capacity level. No significant increase in crush consumption is expected through MY 15/16 as a result.

According multiple industry contacts, increasing food and feed demand by the growing livestock and poultry industries, alongside rising food demand by the expanding health-conscious middle class, have resulted in imports of full fat soybeans (FFSB). As FFSB for food and feed (for extrusion) is a recent development, volumes and detailed use are not yet clear. MY 13/14 soybean food and feed demand in the PSD were conservatively raised as a result, and are expected to increase through MY 15/16.

Copra crush was revised downwards in MY 13/14 and MY 14/15 consistent with similar adjustments made to copra production. MY 15/16 crush is expected to slightly increase as production marginally recovers.

Although industry generally uses a 63 percent copra crush rate, Post uses a marginally lower extraction rate to reflect the aging status of the industry's post-harvest processing infrastructure.

Trade:

Soybean imports for the period CY 2012 to CY 2014 are provided in the following table. Imports in CY 2014 more than doubled to reach 118,000 MT, according to Global Trade Atlas (GTA) exporter data. Soybean imports from the United States surged 147 percent from the CY 2013 level to reach 105,000 MT in CY 2014.

Reporting Countries Export Statistics (Partner Country: Philippines)

UDG: Soybeans, Group 57 (2012)

Annual Series: 2012 - 2014

Quantity

Reporting Country

Unit

2012

2013

2014

Reporting Total

T

51334

53768

117739

United States

T

42172

42594

105010

Canada

T

7680

8632

8123

Argentina

T

164

1309

4055

Brazil

T

83

104

549

Singapore

T

1

7

2

Others

T

1234

1122

0

Source: Global Trade Atlas/Exporter Statistics

Import numbers in the PSD for MY 13/14 were adjusted according to the GTA exporter data. Whole bean imports in MY 14/15 are likely to decline from the MY 13/14 level due to adequate stocks, but are likely to increase modestly to reinforce inventories in MY 15/16.

The following are copra import statistics for CY 2012-2014 based on GTA importer data. Copra imports in CY 2014 more than doubled to reach 72,000 MT with the majority (53 percent) originating from Papua New Guinea.

Philippines Import Statistics

Commodity: 1203, Copra

Annual Series: 2012 - 2014

Quantity

Partner Country

Unit

2012

2013

2014

World

T

64712

33274

72489

Papua New Guinea

T

21532

20709

38296

Indonesia

T

26976

5497

29335

Solomon Islands

T

14156

2649

4858

Vanuatu

T

2049

2180

0

Others

T

0

2239

0

Source: Global Trade Atlas/Philippine Customs Statistics

Copra imports in MY14/15 and MY15/16 are forecast to rise modestly due to the expected decline in local coconut production.

No copra exports are expected through MY 15/16.

Stocks:

Soybean ending stocks for MY 13/14, although still very small, ramped up considerably due to prevalent low prices (according to trade contacts). MY 14/15 ending stocks are expected to slightly decline as a result of the anticipated spike in food and feed demand connected to 2016 election-related spending. MY 15/16 ending stocks are expected to remain at roughly the same level as the previous year.

Copra ending stocks in MY 13/14 were revised downwards as a result of lower than expected production. Ending inventories are likely to decline slightly in MY14/15 and remain at this level in MY 15/16 due to tightness in copra supply.

Policy:

Executive Order No. 61 (EO 61), signed October 2011, took effect in January 2012 and adjusted Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rates on a range of agricultural products. Soybean (HS Code 12.01) and copra (HS Code 12.03) duties were unchanged at 10 percent and one percent, respectively, for the period 2011-2015. Soybean imports are duty-free under the Agricultural and Fisheries Modernization Act provided they are inspected and certified by the Philippine Bureau of Plant Industry and the Bureau of Customs.

Soybean and copra imports originating from countries of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) are also duty-free (starting January 1, 2010) under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA).

In May 2014, President Aquino appointed former Senator Francisco Pangilinan as Presidential Assistant for Food Security and Agricultural Modernization (PAFSAM), a newly created Cabinet-level position. Shortly after, the following agencies were moved from the DA to the office of the PAFSAM:

1. National Food Authority (NFA)

2. National Irrigation Authority (NIA)

3. Philippine Coconut Authority (PCA)

4. Fertilizer and Pesticide Authority (FPA)

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Oilseed, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Philippines

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Planted

0

1

0

1

0

1

Area Harvested

1

1

1

1

0

1

Beginning Stocks

3

3

4

17

0

11

Production

1

1

1

1

0

1

MY Imports

122

118

135

105

0

118

MY Imp. from U.S.

105

105

115

93

0

100

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

126

122

140

123

0

130

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

120

85

135

85

0

85

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2

10

2

12

0

15

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

10

0

15

0

17

Total Dom. Cons.

122

105

137

112

0

117

Ending Stocks

4

17

3

11

0

13

Total Distribution

126

122

140

123

0

130

1000 HA, 1000 MT

Oilseed, Copra

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Philippines

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Planted

0

3,600

0

3,600

0

3,600

Area Harvested

3,550

3,550

3,550

3,550

0

3,550

Trees

0

341,000

0

341,000

0

341,000

Beginning Stocks

50

50

43

39

0

36

Production

2,400

2,276

2,350

2,232

0

2,300

MY Imports

68

68

75

75

0

75

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2,518

2,394

2,468

2,346

0

2,411

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

2,475

2,355

2,425

2,310

0

2,375

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2,475

2,355

2,425

2,310

0

2,375

Ending Stocks

43

39

43

36

0

36

Total Distribution

2,518

2,394

2,468

2,346

0

2,411

1000 HA, 1000 TREES, 1000 MT

Note: Calendar year corresponds to the second year of the split marketing year