Palm Oil Production, Supply, and Demand Table

Oil, Palm Malaysia

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

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USDA Official

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USDA Official

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Beginning Stocks

1,784

1,784

2,091

2,090

2,383

Production

20,161

20,161

19,800

19,535

20,100

MY Imports

358

319

375

683

550

Total Supply

22,303

22,264

22,266

22,308

23,033

MY Exports

17,344

17,344

17,200

16,973

17,400

Industrial Dom. Cons.

2,170

2,150

2,350

2,272

2,450

Food Use Dom. Cons.

648

640

650

640

650

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

50

40

50

40

40

Total Dom. Cons.

2,868

2,830

3,050

2,952

3,140

Ending Stocks

2,091

2,090

2,016

2,383

2,493

Total Distribution

22,303

22,264

22,266

22,308

23,033

Production

In line with historic yield trends, production for the usual low season months of April to June is forecast at 4.8 million tons, compared to 4.782 million tons during 2014. For the fourth-quarter, July till September 2015, output is expected to reach 5.95 million tons, up from the previous year. This return to slightly above trend production levels the rest of the year stems from expectations for a rebound in production in the flood affected areas of East Coast Malaysia, and better than expected production in Southern region of Malaysia and East Malaysia due to good growing conditions. Meanwhile, the production forecast for 2015/26 has been lowered due to a reductions in yield expectations in newly maturing areas in East Malaysia.

Trade

After setting a 4.5 percent export tax in April, the Ministry of Plantations will reportedly resume the zero export tax in May and beyond to boost exports and reduce stocks. While the zero tax might encourage exports, it also has the effect of limiting local supplies to independent refiners, who have increased purchases from Indonesia as a result. In addition, the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) of 6 percent on 1st April might make it less favorable for millers to sell CPO to local refiners as CPO for export is GST exempt; whereas CPO for local consumption is subject to the tax. While the millers can be refunded the GST, it may take time.

Exports were less than expected during the first six months of the marketing year, but shipments are forecast to rebound during the final half of the year as major customers rebuild stocks. Nonetheless, exports are still forecast to be down relative to 2013/14.

Palm Oil production from April till September for year 2013, 2014 and 2015*

Month

2015 *

2014

2013

April

1,520

1,555

1,366

May

1,600

1,657

1,384

June

1,680

1,570

1,417

April – June

4,800

4,782

4,167

July

1,900

1,666

1,675

August

1,950

2,032

1,735

September

2,100

1,897

1,912

July – September

5,950

5,595

5,322

Total April - September

10,750

10,377

9,489

*Projected based on 5 years production average.

The following MHE/yield table is based on the October/September marketing year:

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

Area-MHE (1,000 ha)

2,409

2,547

2,608

2,652

2,698

Production (TMT)

18,202

19,300

20,161

19,535

20,100

Yield-MHE (Ton/ha)

7.55

7.74

7.73

7.36

7.45

2014/15 MONTHLY S&D Forecast (in 1000 Metric Tons)

BEG

PRODUCTION

TOTAL

EXPORT

DOMEST

END

STOCKS

WEST

EAST

TOTAL

IMPORT

SUPPLY

USE

STOCKS

2014

OCT

2,090

971

922

1,893

83

4,066

1,605

295

2,166

NOV

2,166

871

879

1,750

99

4,015

1,513

224

2,278

DEC

2,278

609

756

1,356

90

3,733

1,519

201

2,013

OCT-DEC

2,090

2,451

2,557

5,008

272

7,370

4,637

720

2,013

2015

JAN

2,013

551

609

1,160

90

3,263

1,184

309

1,770

FEB

1,770

606

516

1,122

63

2,955

971

241

1,743

MAR

1,743

843

652

1,495

42

3,280

1,182

232

1,866

JAN-MAR

2,013

2,000

1,777

3,777

195

5,985

3,337

782

1,866

APR

1,866

836

684

1,520

54

3,440

1,339

251

1,850

MAY

1,850

880

720

1,600

46

3,496

1,426

251

1,819

JUN

1,819

924

756

1,680

31

3,530

1,555

195

1,780

APR-JUN

1,866

2,640

2,160

4,800

131

6,797

4,320

697

1,780

JULY

1,780

1,045

855

1,900

35

3,715

1,544

271

1,900

AUG

1,900

1,072

878

1,950

30

3,880

1,544

241

2,095

SEPT

2,095

1,155

945

2,100

20

4,215

1,591

241

2,383

JUL-SEP

1,780

3,272

2,678

5,950

85

7,815

4,679

753

2,383

OCT-SEP

2,090

10,363

9,172

19,535

683

22,308

16,973

2,952

2,383