Executive Summary:

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan is among the poorest on earth in terms of water resources. Water scarcity is a real threat to the country's ability to grow crops. As a result, Jordan's domestic production of cereals is negligible. Jordan's total wheat consumption for MY 2015/2016 is forecast to reach 1,000,000 MT, of which up to 100,000 MT is expected to be imported from the U.S. The major wheat suppliers are Black Sea sources. For the same period, Jordan's barley imports are expected to reach 850,000 MT, corn imports 620,000 MT, and rice imports at 190,000 MT, of which 50 percent is of U.S. origin.

Wheat

Production:

Production of wheat is negligible in Jordan and would cover less than two weeks of the country's annual consumption.

Consumption:

Wheat for human consumption will expand due to population growth rate and the ongoing presence of hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees. Total consumption also includes wheat that is diverted for use as animal feed. Jordan's total wheat consumption is approximately 950,000 MT per year. However, the influx of Syrian refugees, which began in early 2012, has increased annual wheat consumption by approximately 200,000 MT.

Syrian registered refugees are estimated to be nearly10 percent of the population (or slightly above 600,000 registered refugees) according to the UNHCR. A similar number is living normally within the Jordanian society. The total current population is believed to be a little bit over the 8 million of whom approximately 6 million people are counted as Jordanian citizens. Government of Jordan (GOJ) officials believe the Syrian presence could now represent as much as 20 percent of the actual number of consumers.

Trade:

In MY 2015/16 wheat imports are expected to increase slightly given the population growth rate and the large refugee presence. Economic pressures coupled with high C&F prices for U.S. wheat continue to make Black Sea wheat more competitive and are projected to be the only source of wheat to Jordan in MY2015/16, except for a few cargoes of U.S. origin wheat.

Stocks:

GOJ continues its policy of maintaining strategic stocks at 10 months of consumption to avoid any shortages. These are equivalent to 400,000 MT in storage silos and 200,000 on sea and at port.

Policy:

Jordan's wheat bread, known as mowahad, "unified bread", is fully subsidized by the government and all consumers are entitled to it. The GOJ fixes the price of subsidized wheat so that bakeries sell subsidized bread at US$ 0.22 per kg. To do so, the GOJ provides the bakeries with wheat flour extracted at a milling rate of 80 percent at US$50 per MT, while the market cost for the wheat flour can range as high as US$450 per MT. Whenever there is an increase in the cost of an input used for making bread, such as fuel, the GOJ lowers the flour price to compensate for that increase, maintaining the subsidized price. There are no indications that the GOJ has plans to change its bread subsidy policy. The value of the subsidy is higher still when one considers the government's handling and storage of the commodity.

Marketing:

For all intents and purposes, the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIT) is the sole wheat importer in Jordan, through a process of soliciting international offers by local traders. The dozen flour mills in country could contract for wheat purchasing, but as a practical matter MIT does all the buying.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

The already minimal level of production is expected to decline further due to persistent drought, land desertification, and the loss of land to urbanization.

For now, an increase in demand is expected due to continued economic hardship that makes it the most affordable food, the continued and likely expanded presence of Syrian refugees, and also the use of some flour in the market by certain humanitarian relief agencies to feed Syrians on the border areas.

Wheat

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Jordan

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

15

15

15

14

0

20

Beginning Stocks

433

433

362

354

0

343

Production

15

15

20

14

0

25

MY Imports

839

833

1,350

1,000

0

1,050

TY Imports

839

833

1,350

1,000

0

1,050

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

100

Total Supply

1,287

1,281

1,732

1,368

0

1,418

MY Exports

10

12

0

10

0

10

TY Exports

10

12

0

10

0

10

Feed and Residual

15

15

115

15

0

15

FSI Consumption

900

900

1,000

1,000

0

1,000

Total Consumption

915

915

1,115

1,015

0

1,015

Ending Stocks

362

354

617

343

0

393

Total Distribution

1,287

1,281

1,732

1,368

0

1,418

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA

Barley

Production:

Production of barley is negligible. Most barley is used for animal feed at early growth stages.

Consumption:

Barley is mainly used for sheep feed and to a lesser extent for dairy cattle and poultry. Barley use dropped significantly after the GOJ adopted the animal tag system in 2007. Each sheep herder now receives subsidized barley according to the actual number of tagged animals. As a result, corruption has decreased substantially compared to last decade.

Trade:

MY 2015/16 total imports are expected to decrease compared to last year's to 850,000 MT. The good rains of the winter just passed are providing a prolonged grazing period. Barley suppliers are mainly Black Sea countries. No barley imports from the U.S. have been recorded for a decade. The GOJ has been the main importer of barley and sets the selling price, although a market window exists for importers when international market prices are lower than the subsidized one established by the GOJ.

Stocks:

The ending stocks in MY 2014/2015 will be about 530,000 MT in inland and port silos. This amount, in addition to the purchased and contracted amounts, exceeds 10 months of Jordan's consumption. This is part of GoJ policy for food security to keep a quantity in storage or destined for Aqaba on hand equivalent to ten months of wheat and barley in inventory .

Policy:

Only sheep and goat owners receive subsidized barley in the form of a discounted price. This program excludes cattle and poultry farmers from receiving subsidized barley as these two agricultural subsectors are considered industries. The GOJ animal tagging project has created a reliable database of all ruminants in Jordan, replacing the animal census which was of questionable accuracy.

Marketing:

The Ministry of Industry and Trade (MIT) is the predominant barley importer in Jordan.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Barley

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Jordan

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

30

30

20

30

0

30

Beginning Stocks

335

335

464

427

0

530

Production

20

15

15

15

0

15

MY Imports

1,009

927

650

938

0

850

TY Imports

950

927

650

938

0

850

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,364

1,277

1,129

1,380

0

1,395

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

900

850

850

850

0

860

FSI Consumption

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Consumption

900

850

850

850

0

860

Ending Stocks

464

427

279

530

0

535

Total Distribution

1,364

1,277

1,129

1,380

0

1,395

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA

Corn

Production:

Jordan's corn production is negligible, with annual production totaling less than 10,000 MT. Any corn that is domestically produced is for human consumption as corn on the cob.

Consumption:

Feed corn consumption is forecast to be 610,000 MT MY15.

Trade:

The decrease in U.S. corn prices has increased demand for U.S. origin corn slightly, but the market is still dominated by Argentine, Brazilian, and Black Sea corn. MY 2015 will likely be no different as the market remains very price sensitive.

Jordan's imports of corn have increased, corresponding to the growth in the dairy, broiler and table egg sectors. Jordan's poultry industry is considered the biggest agri-business sector in Jordan, with an investment value of around USD 2.5 billion. The Jordan-U.S. Free Trade Agreement no longer provides an advantage for U.S. corn, as all imported corn is exempt from tariffs.

Stocks:

Only a nominal amount of corn is stored on-farm by poultry farmers.

Policy:

There are no restrictions on corn trade in Jordan, and specifications for corn are similar to U.S. standards.

Marketing:

Corn in Jordan is imported and distributed through private sector traders according to free market rules.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Corn

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Jordan

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

1

1

1

1

0

1

Beginning Stocks

33

33

23

36

0

66

Production

10

10

5

10

0

10

MY Imports

450

564

550

672

0

620

TY Imports

450

564

550

672

0

620

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

16

0

40

0

75

Total Supply

493

607

578

718

0

696

MY Exports

10

26

10

22

0

30

TY Exports

10

26

10

22

0

30

Feed and Residual

450

535

500

620

0

600

FSI Consumption

10

10

10

10

0

10

Total Consumption

460

545

510

630

0

610

Ending Stocks

23

36

58

66

0

56

Total Distribution

493

607

578

718

0

696

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA

Rice, Milled

Production:

Being the fourth driest country in the world, Jordan does not produce rice at all.

Consumption:

Rice is a staple of the Jordanian diet. Average annual consumption is about 27 kg per person. The preferred variety is medium grain (Camolino), which constitutes 90 percent of imports.

Trade:

U.S. market share for rice is expected to remain steady in MY 2014/15 at nearly 50 percent of Jordan's imports for medium grain rice, making it the third largest market for US rice. Other major rice suppliers include Thailand, India and Turkey.

Stocks:

No stocks are maintained for this commodity.

Policy:

There are no restrictions on rice trade in Jordan, and specifications are similar to U.S. standards.

Marketing:

Rice in Jordan is imported and distributed through private sector traders according to free market rules of supply and demand.

Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics:

Rice, Milled

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

Jordan

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

10

10

10

11

0

13

Milled Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

Rough Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

Milling Rate (.9999)

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

200

151

200

196

0

190

TY Imports

195

151

200

196

0

190

TY Imp. from U.S.

88

88

0

96

0

100

Total Supply

210

161

210

207

0

203

MY Exports

0

0

0

5

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

5

0

0

Consumption and Residual

200

150

200

190

0

190

Ending Stocks

10

11

10

13

0

13

Total Distribution

210

161

210

208

0

203

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA