Report Highlights:

Total wheat consumption surged in MY 14/15, and is expected to continue growing in MY 15/16 due to the robust economy, growing Philippine population and strong feed demand from the livestock sector. For corn and rice, MY 14/15 and MY 15/16 production was pared down from official USDA estimates due to extended drought conditions during the first half of CY 2015. To ensure food security and stable prices, Post expects significant rice imports in MY 15/16.

Wheat

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

May 2013

May 2014

May 2015

Philippines

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

876

876

781

781

1,161

1,161

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

3,482

3,482

4,600

4,600

4,400

4,400

TY Imports

3,482

3,482

4,600

4,600

4,400

4,400

TY Imp. from U.S.

2,081

2,081

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4,358

4,358

5,381

5,381

5,561

5,561

MY Exports

32

32

45

45

45

45

TY Exports

32

32

45

45

45

45

Feed and Residual

1,250

1,250

1,700

1,700

1,800

1,800

FSI Consumption

2,295

2,295

2,475

2,475

2,525

2,525

Total Consumption

3,545

3,545

4,175

4,175

4,325

4,325

Ending Stocks

781

781

1,161

1,161

1,191

1,191

Total Distribution

4,358

4,358

5,381

5,381

5,561

5,561

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA

CORN

Corn

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Philippines

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

2,584

2,584

2,640

2,567

2,725

2,700

Beginning Stocks

576

576

849

849

829

650

Production

7,532

7,532

7,980

7,688

8,500

8,200

MY Imports

741

741

500

613

300

220

TY Imports

803

803

500

660

300

220

TY Imp. from U.S.

56

56

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

8,849

8,849

9,329

9,150

9,629

9,070

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

5,900

5,900

6,300

6,300

6,500

6,500

FSI Consumption

2,100

2,100

2,200

2,200

2,300

2,300

Total Consumption

8,000

8,000

8,500

8,500

8,800

8,800

Ending Stocks

849

849

829

650

829

270

Total Distribution

8,849

8,849

9,329

9,150

9,629

9,070

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA

Corn production and area harvested in MY 14/15 and MY 15/16 were adjusted downward (from Official USDA estimates) due to lingering drought conditions in key production areas (mainly in Mindanao) during the first half of CY 2015 and were based on the latest estimates from the Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA).

Corn imports in MY 14/15 were raised due to the decreased output, and are based on extrapolated quarterly data from the Global Trade Atlas (GTA). For MY 15/16, corn imports have been pared down due to significant carryover feed wheat stocks.

RICE

Rice, Milled

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Philippines

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

USDA Official

New post

Area Harvested

4,800

4,800

4,890

4,709

4,825

4,709

Beginning Stocks

1,487

1,487

1,695

1,695

2,395

1,975

Milled Production

11,858

11,858

12,200

11,880

12,400

11,880

Rough Production

18,822

18,822

19,365

18,857

19,683

18,857

Milling Rate (.9999)

6,300

6,300

6,300

6,300

6,300

6,300

MY Imports

1,200

1,200

1,700

1,600

1,300

1,800

TY Imports

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,700

1,400

1,900

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

14,545

14,545

15,595

15,175

16,095

15,655

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

12,850

12,850

13,200

13,200

13,250

13,250

Ending Stocks

1,695

1,695

2,395

1,975

2,845

2,405

Total Distribution

14,545

14,545

15,595

15,175

16,095

15,655

1000 HA, 1000 MT, MT/HA

Rice production and area harvested in MY 14/15 were pared down to reflect the dry conditions through the first half of calendar year 2015. No significant increase in rice production and area harvested is expected in MY15/16 as a result.

According to industry, intensified anti-smuggling efforts by the Philippine government dampened unauthorized rice trade in MY 14/15, which is now estimated at between 300 - 400 thousand tons per year. As result of the intensified anti-smuggling efforts, total rice imports in MY 14/15 were pared down slightly.

Rice imports in MY 15/16 were raised as the 2nd quarter crop of CY2015 was less than expected. The National Food Authority (NFA) recently tendered for 250,000 tons of milled rice for arrival before September 2015, and will likely procure another 250,000 tons before the end of CY 2015. With the additional 500,000 tons, total NFA rice imports in MY 15/16 should reach 1.4 - 1.5 million tons (inclusive of the 800,000 tons rice tariff quota for 2015).