Abbreviations used in this report

Benelux = Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg

CAP = EU common agricultural policy

CY = Calendar year

e = Estimate (of a value/number for the current, not yet completed, marketing year)

EU-28 = European Union of 28 member states (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom)

FSU = Former Soviet Union

f = Forecast (of a value/number for the next, not yet started, marketing year)

ha = Hectares

GE = Genetically engineered / Genetically engineered organisms

GHG = Greenhouse gas

MT = Metric ton (1000 kg)

MMT = Million metric tons

MS = EU Member State(s)

MY = Marketing year

NUTS2 = Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics level 2 = code for regions within a country

SME = Soybean meal equivalent

U.K. = United Kingdom

U.A.E. = United Arabic Emirates

U.S. = The United States of America

In this report "biofuel" includes only biofuels used in the transport sector. Biomass/biofuel used for electricity production or other technical uses such as lubricants or in detergents are included in "industrial use".

The marketing years used in this report are:

July-June

Rapeseed complex

October -September

Soybean complex

Sunflower complex

Executive Summary

Production

In MY 2015/16 overall production of EU-28 major oilseeds (rapeseed, sunflower and soybeans) is expected to be almost 10 percent lower than in the previous year and will reach some 31.5 MMT. This is mainly an effect of lower acreage and more average yield expectations compared to the previous bumper crop. With an expected production of 21.3 MMT, output of rapeseed is more than 12 percent lower year-on-year. Sunflower is forecast to be about 7 percent down reaching 8.3 MMT. Only EU soybean production, which is still at a minor level but constantly increasing, is anticipated to be 10 percent up, totaling 1.9 MMT. Soybean production in some member states is higher than previously estimated. This is particularly the case for Romania, Croatia, Hungary, and Bulgaria. Lower acreage in almost all major European rapeseed producing countries (except for Lithuania) and drought in major production regions of Germany and Poland reduced rapeseed crop expectations. Less acreage and average yield expectations due to the neonicotinoid ban and drought in key producing countries (Spain, Bulgaria, partially France, Romania, and Hungary) lowered production estimates for sunflower.

Consumption

Total EU-28 consumption of major oilseeds meals (rapeseed, sunflower and soybeans) in animal feed is forecast to remain almost flat in MY 2015/16 (plus 0.7 percent). High availability of soybean meal on the world market, together with tight supplies of rapeseed and sunflower meals, is expected to favor soybean meal in animal feed over other meals.

Total of Major Oilseeds(Soybean, Rapeseed, Sunflower)

Production

2012

2013

2014

2015e

Rapeseed

19,631

20,978

24,250

21,300

Sunflower

7,131

9,060

8,940

8,300

Soybeans

957

1,230

1,700

1,870

Total

27,719

31,268

34,890

31,470

Note: The years refer to the calendar year in which the harvest occurs (e.g. 2013 = harvested in CY 2013, marketed in MY 2013/14)

e = estimate

Source: FAS EU-28

EU-28 Major Oilseed Crush(in 1,000 MT)

Crush

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15e

MY 2015/16f

Rapeseed

22,700

23,966

24,600

23,800

Soybeans

12,325

13,400

13,500

13,800

Sunflower

6,540

7,600

7,500

7,350

Total

41,565

44,966

45,600

44,950

e= estimate, f = forecast

Source: FAS EU-28

Feed, Waste Use of Major Oilseeds Meals in the EU-28 (in 1,000 MT)

Feed, Waste Use Meals

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15e

MY 2015/16f

Soybeans

26,000

28,300

29,300

29,900

Rapeseed

12,900

13,570

13,800

13,600

Sunflower

7,000

7,200

7,170

7,110

Total

45,900

49,070

50,270

50,610

e= estimate, f = forecast

Source: FAS EU-28

Food Use of Major Oilseeds Oils in the EU-28 (in 1,000 MT)

Food Use Oil

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15e

MY 2015/16f

Rapeseed Oil

2,500

2,800

2,850

2,850

Soybean Oil

1,000

990

990

990

Sunflower Oil

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,520

Total Oils

6,800

7,190

7,340

7,360

Biofuels Use of Major Oilseeds Oils in the EU-28 (in 1,000 MT)

Biofuels

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15e

MY 2015/16f

Feedstock/Rapeseed Oil

5,850

6,200

6,400

6,300

Feedstock/Soybean Oil

430

750

750

750

Feedstock/Sunflower Oil

150

210

210

200

Total

6,430

7,160

7,360

7,250

Other Industrial Use of Major Oilseeds Oils in the EU28 (in 1,000 MT)

Other Industrial Use

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15e

MY 2015/16f

Rapeseed Oil

850

750

800

850

Soybean Oil

170

150

160

160

Sunflower Oil

50

40

50

40

Total

1,070

940

1,010

1,050

Soybean Complex

Trade figures are revised according to the most recent data available from the Global Trade Atlas (April 2015); harvest and crush estimates from producing countries.

Oilseed, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

480

480

580

570

680

690

Area Harvested

472

471

566

560

700

680

Beginning Stocks

302

302

279

100

248

130

Production

1209

1230

1689

1700

1980

1870

MY Imports

12985

12985

12950

12850

13100

13100

MY Imp. from U.S.

3647

3647

3500

3970

3450

3500

Total Supply

14496

14517

14918

14650

15328

15100

MY Exports

57

57

100

100

100

100

Crush

13400

13400

13750

13500

14100

13800

Food Use Dom. Cons.

160

160

170

170

170

170

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

600

800

650

750

660

850

Total Dom. Cons.

14160

14360

14570

14420

14930

14820

Ending Stocks

279

100

248

130

298

180

Total Distribution

14496

14517

14918

14650

15328

15100

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Meal, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

13400

13400

13750

13500

14100

13800

Beginning Stocks

120

120

142

157

275

255

Production

10586

10500

10865

10700

11140

10800

MY Imports

18175

18162

19550

19100

20100

19600

MY Imp. from U.S.

1230

1228

1300

1080

1200

1150

Total Supply

28881

28782

30557

29957

31515

30655

MY Exports

297

283

340

360

400

370

Industrial Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

10

10

Food Use Dom. Cons.

32

32

32

32

32

32

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

28400

28300

29900

29300

30850

29900

Total Dom. Cons.

28442

28342

29942

29342

30892

29942

Ending Stocks

142

157

275

255

223

343

Total Distribution

28881

28782

30557

29957

31515

30655

(1000 MT)

Oil, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

13400

13400

13750

13500

14100

13800

Beginning Stocks

202

202

322

271

315

321

Production

2546

2450

2613

2550

2680

2600

MY Imports

325

325

300

300

200

250

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3073

2977

3235

3121

3195

3171

MY Exports

771

766

850

850

900

850

Industrial Dom. Cons.

910

900

1000

910

900

910

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1000

990

1000

990

1000

990

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

70

50

70

50

70

50

Total Dom. Cons.

1980

1940

2070

1950

1970

1950

Ending Stocks

322

271

315

321

325

371

Total Distribution

3073

2977

3235

3121

3195

3171

(1000 MT)

MY 2015/16

Soybeans

Area and production are raised. They will be higher than previously expected in Romania, Croatia, Hungary, and Bulgaria. Hungary is working on a national program that aims at reducing the country's dependence on imports. Hungarian soybean producers will receive around 200 euros per hectare in addition to already existing subsidies.

Imports and crush are revised upwards due to expected high availability and better competitiveness compared to rapeseed and sunflower. Compared to 2014/15, imports and crush are expected to rise.

Soybean meal

Production and feed use are revised upwards. Soybean meal consumption is expected to increase compared to 2014/15 due to a high availability on the world market, whereas rapeseed and sunflower meal supplies are forecast to tighten. The rise in domestic soybean production will play a smaller part in the consumption increase.

Soybean oil

Production and exports are raised whereas imports are reduced slightly. Compared to 2014/15, production is expected to increase and imports to go down.

MY 2014/15

Soybeans

Imports, exports and crush are raised. Compared to 2013/14, the increase in domestic soybean production (470 thousand MT) leads to a decrease in imports (- 135 thousand MT) and to a rise in exports. Soybean crush goes up because margins are higher than for rapeseed.

Soybean meal

Production, imports and feed use are adjusted upwards while exports are reduced slightly. Compared to 2013/14, a high availability on the world market and a rise in domestic production lead to an increase in the production and feed use of soybean meal.

Note: Bulgaria, which usually does not crush soybeans, has imported small quantities of soybeans in 2014/15 to perform tests. In 2015/16, the country is expected to crush domestic non-biotech soybeans as a consequence of the increase in local production.

Soybean oil

Production and exports are raised. Compared to 2013/14, production and exports increase while imports go down. Industrial use increases slightly.

Rapeseed Complex

Trade figures have been revised according to the most recent data available from the Global Trade Atlas (April 2015); recent harvest and crush estimates from producing countries.

Oilseed, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

6770

6800

6760

6800

6565

6600

Area Harvested

6767

6710

6758

6716

6560

6534

Beginning Stocks

2502

2502

2070

1778

2410

2158

Production

21299

20978

24255

24250

21400

21300

MY Imports

3495

3474

2500

2300

2400

2400

MY Imp. from U.S.

7

7

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

27296

26954

28825

28328

26210

25858

MY Exports

290

290

585

600

300

300

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

23966

23966

24700

24600

23700

23800

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

970

920

1130

970

1000

950

Total Dom. Cons.

24936

24886

25830

25570

24700

24750

Ending Stocks

2070

1778

2410

2158

1210

808

Total Distribution

27296

26954

28825

28328

26210

25858

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Meal, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

23966

23966

24700

24600

23700

23800

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.575

0.5654

0.575

0.565

0.5751

0.563

Beginning Stocks

89

89

215

165

218

275

Production

13780

13550

14203

13900

13630

13400

MY Imports

457

457

400

450

450

450

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

14326

14096

14818

14515

14298

14125

MY Exports

361

361

400

440

300

300

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

13750

13570

14200

13800

13800

13600

Total Dom. Cons.

13750

13570

14200

13800

13800

13600

Ending Stocks

215

165

218

275

198

225

Total Distribution

14326

14096

14818

14515

14298

14125

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Oil, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

23966

23966

24700

24600

23700

23800

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.415

0.4168

0.415

0.4167

0.4156

0.416

Beginning Stocks

32

32

293

214

300

284

Production

9946

9990

10251

10250

9850

9900

MY Imports

296

303

255

260

270

280

MY Imp. from U.S.

2

0

2

0

2

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

10274

10325

10799

10724

10420

10464

MY Exports

306

311

340

340

300

300

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

7450

6950

7675

7200

7400

7150

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2210

2800

2460

2850

2500

2850

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

15

50

24

50

25

50

Total Dom. Cons.

9675

9800

10159

10100

9925

10050

Ending Stocks

293

214

300

284

195

114

Total Distribution

10274

10325

10799

10724

10420

10464

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

MY 2015/16

European rapeseed production is expected to drop by 13% to 21.3 MMT. One factor for the decrease is that European farmers planted nearly 200,000 hectares of rapeseed less than the previous marketing year. Drought in major production regions of Germany and Poland has further reduced expectations for the European rapeseed crop. Altogether, every major European producer, except for Lithuania, has decreased acreage and yields are expected to stay below the excellent levels in MY14/15.

The smaller rapeseed crop will lead to a tight supply of domestic produce on the European market. Supply on the world market is also tight which will result in stable imports from Ukraine and Australia, the two major outside origins. Exports and ending stock are expected to decrease significantly, but this will just partly offset the smaller supply. Rapeseed crush is expected to decrease leading to a smaller production of rapeseed meal and oil. As a substitute, it is estimated that there is an abundant supply of soybeans globally. With crushers preferring soybeans over rapeseed due to crash margins soybean meal and grains are expected to replace rapeseed meal in feed ratios to some extent. Demand by the European biodiesel industry for rapeseed oil is expected to remain stable overall.

MY 2014/15

EU rapeseed production reached a record high of 24.2 MMT in MY 2014/15. The abundant supply of domestic produce led to lower imports from Ukraine and Australia and higher exports to Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Israel. European crushing numbers of rapeseed also reached record levels. Stocks also increased. Demand for rapeseed meal was driven by the expanding European dairy industry. The use of rapeseed oil for biofuels was revised upwards due to strong demand in France, the UK and the Czech Republic.

Sunflower Complex

Trade figures have been revised according to the most recent data available from the Global Trade Atlas (April 2015); recent harvest and crush estimates from producing countries.

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

4597

4620

4284

4283

4165

4176

Beginning Stocks

780

780

879

896

994

931

Production

9008

9060

8935

8940

8200

8300

MY Imports

319

319

250

245

250

280

MY Imp. from U.S.

41

41

40

40

40

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

10107

10159

10064

10081

9444

9511

MY Exports

713

713

600

610

600

550

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

7605

7600

7500

7500

7300

7350

Food Use Dom. Cons.

350

430

400

550

450

580

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

560

520

570

490

550

480

Total Dom. Cons.

8515

8550

8470

8540

8300

8960

Ending Stocks

879

896

994

931

544

551

Total Distribution

10107

10159

10064

10081

9444

9511

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Meal, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

7605

7600

7500

7500

7300

7350

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.5431

0.5434

0.544

0.5427

0.5445

0.5442

Beginning Stocks

77

77

198

198

148

148

Production

4130

4130

4080

4070

3975

4000

MY Imports

3364

3364

3350

3300

3400

3300

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

7571

7571

7628

7568

7523

7448

MY Exports

173

173

230

250

180

210

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

7200

7200

7250

7170

7225

7110

Total Dom. Cons.

7200

7200

7250

7170

7225

7100

Ending Stocks

198

198

148

148

118

128

Total Distribution

7571

7571

7628

7568

7523

7448

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Oil, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

7605

7600

7500

7500

7300

7350

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.4195

0.4197

0.4193

0.42

0.4185

0.4218

Beginning Stocks

58

58

255

255

250

245

Production

3190

3190

3145

3150

3055

3100

MY Imports

1039

1039

950

1000

900

950

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4287

4287

4350

4405

4205

4295

MY Exports

372

372

380

390

300

340

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

250

250

260

260

260

240

Food Use Dom. Cons.

3400

3400

3450

3500

3500

3520

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

10

10

Total Dom. Cons.

3660

3660

3720

3770

3770

3770

Ending Stocks

255

255

250

245

135

185

Total Distribution

4287

4287

4350

4405

4205

4295

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Sunflower Seeds

MY 2015/16

The latest estimate for the EU-28 shows that planted area under sunflower was reduced by 2.5 percent (107,000 HA) compared to MY 2014/15. Hungary is the only country which opted for higher planted area while others, such as France, Spain, Romania and Bulgaria, reduced the plantings compared to the previous season for various reasons. Due to mild winter, re-seeding of winter crops was small and this limited expansion in area. In France, farmers expected lower margins compared to other crops such as winter wheat and barley while in Bulgaria the rainy and cold spring weather prevented farmers from further expansion in area. The new greening requirements and higher support for protein crops also affected the plantings in favor of other crops such as soybeans in select member-states (France, Bulgaria). Most of the other member states see planted areas flat (Italy, Austria, Croatia, Germany, Czech Republic, and Portugal). On the other hand, major producing countries (France, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria) report higher areas planted under high oleic and confectionary seeds compared to conventional oil-bearing sunflower. France is a leader with two-thirds of its sunflower under oleic varieties, followed by Hungary while the market is still emerging in Romania and Bulgaria.

Expectations for average yields are more unified as the EU-28 is not likely to achieve the exceptional yields from MY 2014/15. The ban on neonicotinoids negatively affected the crop status. Romania and Bulgaria were granted derogations for application of neonicotinoids on sunflower and corn for MY 2015/16 but for a limited timeframe, and in Bulgaria the decision arrived late. The weather until the end of June was rather favorable for the sunflower development, however, in July it has been persistently dry and hot in most of the key producing countries (Spain, Bulgaria, partly France, Romania and Hungary) and this leads to lower estimates, closer to the average. Currently, we forecast EU- 28 production to decline by 7 percent vs. MY 2014/15 to 8.3 MMT.

Imports, most likely from the Black Sea, are forecast to be higher compared to the previous season in order to compensate for lower domestic supply and complement crush. On the other hand, further growth in imports may be prevented due to likely limited exports of seeds from Black Sea suppliers, as well as a result of expected lower crush in the EU-28.

Currently, we continue to forecast lower (by 2.0 percent) level of crush in the EU-28 due to likely reduced availabilities, generally declining crush margins, and expected stronger competition from soybeans. Still, the projected level of crush of 7.35 MMT is at higher level than in the years prior to MY 2013/14. Most countries are expected to reduce the crush (mainly Spain and France, followed by Romania, Italy and Greece) while Bulgaria, Benelux and Czech Republic see a growth in crush due to larger capacities and favorable demand. Currently, the crush margins are projected to be lower on average compared to the previous marketing years but with variations by member-states. On the other hand, crush is likely to be encouraged by favorable demand for sunflower oil including high oleic oil, and protein meals, including high protein meal. Currently, we expect very good domestic demand for sunflower oil with marginally higher consumption. The demand for sunflower meal is likely to be stable since it is projected to be more competitive than the rapeseed meal but at the same time it may face a very strong competition from the soybean meal.

Lower availability and good domestic demand are forecast to lead to a decline in exports of about 10 percent compared to the current season. Ending stocks are projected to decrease significantly and may support tighter stocks- to- use ratio.

MY 2014/15

We continue to keep our forecast for lower EU-28 imports vs MY 2013/14. The new estimate is based on trade data for October 2014 - April 2015 (source: World Trade Atlas) which shows a 34 percent reduction in imports. This is a result of reduced exports to the EU by Black Sea suppliers due to their lower stocks. Moldova is the main source of sunflower seeds for the EU, followed by Ukraine and the United States, while Serbia is not as active as in the previous marketing year. Declining crush margins and weakening competitiveness of sunflower meal compared to soybean meal is also behind lower import demand.

No changes have been made in our estimate regarding the crush demand. Food consumption was revised upwards based on member states latest data and higher use in select countries such as Bulgaria, followed by Romania.

EU-28 exports of sunflower seeds for October 2014-April 2015 were 20 percent lower compared to the corresponding period in the previous year with major exporters being Romania and Bulgaria. The main reason for this decline is weaker demand from traditional export markets and growth in crush in Bulgaria. Main export destinations remained Pakistan, followed by Turkey while South Africa imported much less this season. We estimate annual exports to be 15 percent lower in MY 2014/15 compared to MY 2013/14.

Sunflower Meal

MY 2015/16

EU-28 sunflower meal output is forecast to have a 1.5-2.0 percent reduction in line with the decline in crush estimate. Imports are projected to be stable compared to the current year to compensate for lower domestic availabilities. However, weaker competitiveness compared to soybean meal may not lead to further growth in imports. Domestic EU-28 demand for sunflower meals is likely to be good and better than for rapeseed meal, but still the use is expected to decline slightly (1.0 percent) compared with the current season, likely due to more attractive use of soybean meal. The United Kingdom, Benelux and Romania expect higher use of meal while other member states expect flat or slightly lower use. High protein sunflower meal is expanding its market share (higher supply projected in Hungary and Bulgaria) and favorable demand may support a stable use of sunflower meal (better use expected in Germany). Sunflower meal exports of in MY 2015/16 are forecast to decline due to lower supply and stable domestic demand in the EU-28.

MY 2014/15

Imports of sunflower meal during October 2014 - April 2015 (World Trade Atlas) were flat compared to the corresponding period in the previous season with main suppliers Ukraine and Russia. As forecasted earlier, the competitiveness of sunflower meal for the rest of the year changes in favor of soybean meal, and thus affects imports. In addition, the usual suppliers have currently low exportable stocks. We estimate the annual imports for the season to be 2.0 percent lower than in MY 2013/14. This is likely to result in slightly reduced meal use at about 1.0 percent, with this estimate being under USDA official. Sunflower meal exports during October 2014-April 2015 more than doubled compared to the corresponding period in MY 2013/14 due to competitive prices and good demand by Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Turkey. Thus annual exports are likely to be much above the previous season.

Sunflower Oil

MY 2015/16

Sunflower oil output is forecast to decline by 1.5 percent due to lower projected crush. Select few countries expect higher output (Benelux, Bulgaria, Czech Republic), while most member states project a decline (Spain, France, Hungary, Romania). As a result, exports are expected to decline by 13 percent due to lower supply. Imports should offset lower domestic output and to meet favorable food use demand. Although we currently forecast imports above USDA official at 0.95 MMT, further revisions are likely depending on international and regional (Black Sea) price levels.

Demand for food use is forecast as favorable due to continued orientation of consumers towards "healthier" and oleic vegetable oils. Thus we currently forecast a modest growth in consumption of less than one percent. Industrial demand (biodiesel) is estimated to decline.

MY 2014/15

Imports of sunflower oil during October 2014 - April 2015 (World Trade Atlas) were 10 percent more than imports in MY 2013/14, with main suppliers Ukraine, Moldova and Serbia. Similar to the market situation with sunflower meal, we expect imports to slow down for the rest of the year due to declining stocks at exporters with the exception of Argentina. At present, our estimate for imports is above USDA official. Sunflower oil food consumption is estimated to be about 3 percent higher than in the previous season due to good health image of sunflower oil and partly as a result of the deficit of olive oil in the EU this year. Sunflower oil exports during October 2014 - April 2015 were 19.5 percent higher than in the previous season due to good demand from Turkey and South Africa. The annual exports are currently estimated to be slightly above USDA official data.