Report Highlights:

On August 17, 2015, the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA) revised the Indian crop year (ICY) 2014/15 (July-June) grain production estimate to 252.7 million metric tons (MMT). This revision is marginally higher over the previous estimate (May 2015), but nearly five percent lower than the last year's record production. The grain PSDs in this report are revised to reflect the latest official estimates.

Government Raises 2014/15 Grain Harvest Marginally

On August 17, 2015, the MoA released the Fourth Advance Estimates of Production of Food Grain for Indian Crop Year (ICY) 2014/15 (July-June) and raised Indian grain production to 252.7 MMT. This marks a marginal increase over the third advance estimate of 251.1 MMT from May 2015. The production estimates for rice and corn are raised, but lowered for wheat and pulses. Nevertheless, the latest ICY 2014/15 production estimate is nearly five percent lower than the last year's record 265 MMT, due largely to the delayed 2014 monsoon and untimely rains during harvest of rabi (winter planted) crops (February-April 2015).

ICY 2014/15 grain production includes rice, coarse grains, and pulses harvested last fall and this spring (MY 2014/15), and wheat and barley crops harvested in March-May, 2015 (MY 2015/16). Typically, the fourth advance estimates are subject to minor revisions when they are finalized in February 2016. Consequently, the PSDs for grains have been adjusted to reflect the official production estimates.

2015 Monsoon Rains Scattered in August…

As of the last week of July, India's 2015 monsoon has been patchy in most parts of the country(see Appendix 1 and 2) with prolonged periodic dry spells and uneven regional distribution. August's average precipitation was 22 percent below the long-term average (deficient), particularly in the Gangetic plains, and throughout most of peninsular India. Sources report that the rainfall deficiency levels during August in some areas was the highest since 1993. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), India's cumulative precipitation from June through August 26 was 12-percent below the seasonal long-term average (see Appendix 1). Rainfall was reported normal in 21 weather subdivisions, and rainfall was deficient in the remaining 15 sub-divisions, to include agriculturally important states of Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Telangana and parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.

… Kharif Planting Stagger

After a strong start in June, the planting of kharif (fall harvested) crops slowed in August. The MY 2015/16 kharif season grains include rice, coarse grains (corn, sorghum, millet), and pulses (pigeon pea, mung bean, black matpe).

India: Planting of Kharif Crops in Indian Crop Year (July/June) (Area in Million Hectares)

Crop

ICY 2015/16 Progressive Planting till

28-Aug-15

ICY 2014/15 Progressive Planting till

28-Aug-14

ICY 2015/16 Progressive Planting till

31-Jul-15

ICY 2014/15 Progressive Planting till

31-Jul-14

ICY 2015/16 Progressive Planting till

3-Jul-15

ICY 2014/15 Progressive Planting till

3-Jul-14

Rice

34.59

34.55

22.78

21.48

5.4

5.36

Pulses

10.55

9.42

8.24

6.82

2.26

0.97

Coarse cereals

17.25

16.72

14.85

12.55

4.37

2.89

Oilseeds

17.46

17.23

14.85

13.56

7.42

1.47

Sugarcane

4.88

4.72

4.73

4.64

4.37

4.39

Cotton

11.27

12.25

10.19

10.48

6.02

3.54

Total

96.78

95.69

76.43

70.34

30.61

19.43

Adequate monsoonal rains during the critical planting period (June through mid-July) supported higher planting of coarse grains and pulses. However, relatively deficient rain since the last week of July slowed planting of kharif rice. However, kharif rice enjoys a relatively long planting window and can continue through the first week of September. The planting season for other kharif food grains concluded by the third week of August. Due to deficient rains in August, the standing kharif crops are likely facing moisture stress, particularly in unirrigated areas (55 percent of net cultivated areas), although to date there are no official reports of crop damage. September rains will be critical for crop growth and attaining the forecast productivity for the upcoming MY 2015/16.

RICE

Rice, Milled

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

43,940

43,940

43,000

43,000

44,000

44,000

Beginning Stocks

25,440

25,440

22,651

22,651

15,300

15,600

Milled Production

106,540

106,540

102,500

104,800

104,000

104,000

Rough Production

159,826

159,826

153,765

157,216

156,016

156,016

Milling Rate (.9999)

6,666

6,666

6,666

6,666

6,666

6,666

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

131,980

131,980

125,151

127,451

119,300

119,600

MY Exports

10,149

10,149

10,600

11,700

8,500

9,000

TY Exports

10,907

10,907

11,000

11,500

9,000

9,000

Consumption and Residual

99,180

99,180

99,251

100,151

99,200

99,000

Ending Stocks

22,651

22,651

15,300

15,600

11,600

11,600

Total Distribution

131,980

131,980

125,151

127,451

119,300

119,600

Yield (Rough)

3.6374

3.6374

3.5759

3.6562

3.5458

3.5458

MY 2015/16 Prospects Unchanged

Despite relatively deficient rains in August, Post continues to estimate MY 2015/16 rice production unchanged at 104 MMT based on timely and near-normal planting. Despite the slowdown in rice planting in August, the MoA estimates rice area planted through August 27, 2015, at 34.6 million hectares, marginally higher than last year and consistent with the last five-year average for the corresponding period.

coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. While rice faces moisture stress in most growing areas, to date, there have not been any official reports of crop damage in the unirrigated areas. The rice crop is performing well in the irrigated areas. However, rains in unirrigated areas during the first two weeks of September are critical for rice to attain the forecast production.

Assuming normal rainfall levels during September, Post continues to forecast MY 2015/16 production at 104 MMT from 44 million hectares. However, deficient rains and/or a prolonged dry spell in September/early October, as well as a cyclonic build-up in September and October could lower the current forecast.

MY 2014/15 Production Raised

Based on the latest official data, MY 2014/16 rice production is raised higher to 104.8 MMT, largely due to higher than anticipated yields in the central and eastern states.

Consumption Revised

Consumption estimate in the PSD have been adjusted to reflect the changes in the production and export estimates.

According to the available preliminary official figures, MY 2014/15 rice exports through June 2015 are estimated at 9.14 MMT, about 1.7 MMT higher compared to last year's exports during the corresponding period. Expected steady export demand and domestic prices during the last quarter is likely to raise MY 2014/15 exports to a record 11.7 MMT. Assuming no major changes in the international market and Indian export policy, MY 2015/16 rice export is forecast at 9.0 MMT, lower than previous year record exports due to forecast tight domestic supplies. However, exports could decline from the forecast level if the production is adversely affected by deficient rains in September and other weather abnormalities, and/or the Government of India (GOI) imposes export control measures on price concerns in the domestic market.

WHEAT

Wheat

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Apr 2013

Apr 2014

Apr 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

30,000

30,000

31,530

31,530

30,600

30,600

Beginning Stocks

24,200

24,200

17,830

17,830

17,200

17,200

Production

93,510

93,510

95,850

95,850

90,000

88,940

MY Imports

25

25

52

52

800

800

TY Imports

22

22

262

262

800

800

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

117,735

117,735

113,732

113,732

108,000

106,940

MY Exports

6,053

6,053

3,402

3,402

300

300

TY Exports

5,354

5,354

1,700

1,700

300

300

Feed and Residual

4,800

4,800

4,500

4,500

4,800

4,800

FSI Consumption

89,052

89,052

88,630

88,630

91,000

89,940

Total Consumption

93,852

93,852

93,130

93,130

95,800

94,740

Ending Stocks

17,830

17,830

17,200

17,200

11,900

11,900

Total Distribution

117,735

117,735

113,732

113,732

108,000

106,940

Yield

3.1170

3.1170

3.0400

3.0400

2.9412

2.9065

Production Revised

Based on the latest official production revision, Post's MY 2015/16 wheat production estimate is revised to 88.9 MMT, about seven percent lower than the MY 2014/15 record production of 95.9 MMT. India's MY 2015/16 wheat harvest was adversely affected by unfavorable weather (untimely rains, hail, and strong winds) during harvest (late February through mid-April) resulting in significant crop damage due to lodging and other harvest losses. The MoA has steadily revised the MY 2015/16 wheat production estimate lower from its initial (February 2015) estimate of 95.8 MMT based on the information from state governments.

MY 2015/16 consumption has been marginally revised to 89.9 MMT to account for the revision in the production estimate.

COARSE GRAINS

Post's MY 2014/15 corn, millet and sorghum and MY 2015/16 barley production estimates are revised to reflect the latest MoA official estimates. Consumption and ending stocks in the PSD's have been adjusted to reflect the changes in the production estimates. Post continues to estimate MY 2015/16 coarse grain production unchanged from previous updates.

While revisions in the production estimates for millet, sorghum and barley have been minor, corn production estimate has been revised significantly higher to 23.7 MMT from the MoA's third advance estimate of 22.7 MMT raising the production estimates for both kharif and rabi corn. However, most market sources continue to estimate the MY 2014/15 corn production in the range of 20 to 21 MMT based on the market supply and price situation.

Corn

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Nov 2013

Nov 2014

Nov 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

9,430

9,430

9,300

9,300

9,200

9,200

Beginning Stocks

651

651

1,447

1,447

1,257

2,127

Production

24,260

24,260

22,500

23,670

23,500

23,500

MY Imports

7

7

10

10

50

50

TY Imports

11

11

10

10

50

50

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

24,918

24,918

23,957

25,127

24,807

25,677

MY Exports

3,871

3,871

1,000

1,000

2,000

2,000

TY Exports

3,889

3,889

1,000

1,000

2,000

2,000

Feed and Residual

10,600

10,600

12,500

12,500

12,300

12,800

FSI Consumption

9,000

9,000

9,200

9,500

9,400

9,500

Total Consumption

19,600

19,600

21,700

22,000

21,700

22,300

Ending Stocks

1,447

1,447

1,257

2,127

1,107

1,377

Total Distribution

24,918

24,918

23,957

25,127

24,807

25,677

Yield

2.5726

2.5726

2.4194

2.5452

2.5543

2.5543

Millet

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Nov 2013

Nov 2014

Nov 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

9,750

9,750

8,640

8,640

9,000

9,000

Beginning Stocks

450

450

510

510

380

430

Production

11,660

11,660

11,270

11,420

11,000

11,000

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

12,110

12,110

11,780

11,930

11,380

11,430

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

1,600

1,600

1,400

1,500

1,400

1,400

FSI Consumption

10,000

10,000

10,000

10,000

9,500

9,500

Total Consumption

11,600

11,600

11,400

11,500

10,900

10,900

Ending Stocks

510

510

380

430

480

530

Total Distribution

12,110

12,110

11,780

11,930

11,380

11,430

Sorghum

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Nov 2013

Nov 2014

Nov 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

5,900

5,900

5,500

5,500

6,000

6,000

Beginning Stocks

145

145

398

398

238

298

Production

5,540

5,540

4,790

5,050

5,500

5,500

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

5,685

5,685

5,188

5,448

5,738

5,798

MY Exports

87

87

50

50

100

100

TY Exports

89

89

50

50

100

100

Feed and Residual

700

700

700

700

750

750

FSI Consumption

4,500

4,500

4,200

4,400

4,500

4,600

Total Consumption

5,200

5,200

4,900

5,100

5,250

5,350

Ending Stocks

398

398

238

298

388

348

Total Distribution

5,685

5,685

5,188

5,448

5,738

5,798

Yield

0.9390

0.9390

0.8709

0.9182

0.9167

0.9167

Barley

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Apr 2013

Apr 2014

Apr 2015

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

780

780

810

810

800

800

Beginning Stocks

120

120

231

231

212

212

Production

1,750

1,750

1,830

1,830

1,630

1,600

MY Imports

2

2

1

1

5

5

TY Imports

1

1

5

5

5

5

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,872

1,872

2,062

2,062

1,847

1,817

MY Exports

441

441

450

450

400

400

TY Exports

546

546

300

300

400

400

Feed and Residual

200

200

200

200

200

200

FSI Consumption

1,000

1,000

1,200

1,200

1,100

1,100

Total Consumption

1,200

1,200

1,400

1,400

1,300

1,300

Ending Stocks

231

231

212

212

147

117

Total Distribution

1,872

1,872

2,062

2,062

1,847

1,817

Yield

2.2436

2.2436

2.2593

2.2593

2.0375

2.0000