Report Highlights:

Post concurs with the official USDA estimates for wheat. Corn production and area harvested were pared down in MY14/15 and MY15/16 to reflect the effects of prolonged dryness bought about by the El Nino weather disturbance. MY15/16 feed corn demand was slightly reduced due to some shifting to feedwheat while no significant change is expected for food corn demand. As a result, corn imports are likely to decline from 580 thousand tons in MY14/15 to 500 thousand tons in MY15/16. For rice, area harvested was slightly pared down in MY14/15, while output raised based on the latest official estimates. MY15/16 rice output is likely to decline to 18.7 million tons paddy from 18.9 million tons the previous year due to the El Nino dry spell and as a result, rice imports are forecast to reach 2.0 million tons from 1.7 million tons in MY14/15.

Wheat

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

May 2013

May 2014

May 2016

Philippines

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

876

876

781

781

1261

1261

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

3482

3482

5100

5100

4800

4800

TY Imports

3482

3482

5100

5100

4800

4800

TY Imp. from U.S.

2070

2070

2269

2269

0

0

Total Supply

4358

4358

5881

5881

6061

6061

MY Exports

32

32

45

45

45

45

TY Exports

32

32

45

45

45

45

Feed and Residual

1250

1250

2100

2100

2300

2300

FSI Consumption

2295

2295

2475

2475

2600

2600

Total Consumption

3545

3545

4575

4575

4900

4900

Ending Stocks

781

781

1261

1261

1116

1116

Total Distribution

4358

4358

5881

5881

6061

6061

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Post agrees with the USDA official estimates.

Corn

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

May 2016

Philippines

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

2584

2584

2567

2561

2700

2530

Beginning Stocks

576

576

849

849

612

600

Production

7532

7532

7688

7671

8000

7645

MY Imports

741

741

575

580

500

500

TY Imports

803

803

550

580

500

500

TY Imp. from U.S.

56

56

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

8849

8849

9112

9100

9112

8745

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

5900

5900

6300

6300

6500

6400

FSI Consumption

2100

2100

2200

2200

2300

2200

Total Consumption

8000

8000

8500

8500

8800

8600

Ending Stocks

849

849

612

600

312

145

Total Distribution

8849

8849

9112

9100

9112

8745

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Corn production and area harvested in MY14/15 were pared down slightly based on the latest crop estimates from the Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA). Corn imports in MY14/15 were raised slightly to account for higher than expected corn imports from Vietnam.

For MY15/16, corn area and output were again reduced, and are likely to decline from the previous year's level. Local weather experts predict dryness brought about by the El Nino weather disturbance to intensify starting third quarter of 2015 through early 2016.

Corn consumption in MY 15/16 was pared down due to reduced supply, which is leading to increased consumption of feedwheat and milling wheat as a substitute. Overall demand for feed grains, however, is still expected to modestly increase from the previous year's level, as meat production continues to grow.

Rice, Milled

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

May 2016

Philippines

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

4800

4800

4709

4705

4700

4685

Beginning Stocks

1487

1487

1695

1695

2075

2110

Milled Production

11858

11858

11880

11915

12000

11800

Rough Production

18822

18822

18857

18913

19048

18730

Milling Rate (.9999)

6300

6300

6300

6300

6300

6300

MY Imports

1200

1200

1700

1700

1300

2000

TY Imports

1800

1800

1800

1800

1400

2000

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

14545

14545

15275

15310

15375

15910

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

12850

12850

13200

13200

13250

13250

Ending Stocks

1695

1695

2075

2110

2125

2660

Total Distribution

14545

14545

15275

15310

15375

15910

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Rice production and area harvested in MY14/15 were adjusted based on the latest PSA data.

For MY15/16, production and area harvested are likely to decline from the previous year's level as a result of the El Nino dry spell. As a result, milled rice imports in TY and MY15/16 were raised to 2 million tons for a modest increase from the MY14/15 level. In early September 2015, the Philippine government (GPH) approved the importation of an additional 750,000 tons of milled rice for arrival in the last quarter of 2015 (250,000 tons) and the first quarter of 2016 (500,000 tons). The GPH very recently awarded the supply contract for 750,000 tons of milled rice to Vietnam and Thailand.