Ukraine. Grain and Feed Update. Oct 2015 Oct. 10, 2015
2015 corn production is forecast to be 7.3 MMT less than the 2014 harvest. MY 2015/16 corn exports are forecast at 12.5 MMT; down from 19.4 MMT in MY 2014/15. Ukraine's 2015 wheat production is forecast to increase 2.6 MMT over the 2014 crop. MY 2015/16 wheat exports are forecast to increase to 15.6 MMT; a 4.4 MMT increase from MY 2014/15.
Ukraine's 2015 harvest resulted in an estimated 26.8 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat, 8.5 MMT of barley, and .365 MMT of rye according to the Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food of Ukraine (MAPF). Compared with the 2014 crop, 2015 wheat production increased 2.6 MMT while barley production decreased over .5 MMT and rye production decreased by 113 thousand MMT.
Ukraine's corn harvest is ongoing. FAS Kyiv has reduced its forecast for Ukraine's 2015 corn crop to 21.1 MMT (versus 28.5 MMT in 2014) to reflect reduced production area and unfavorable weather conditions impacting plant growth conditions and productivity. August 2015 featured high temperatures and low rates of precipitation for all territory of Ukraine, especially in Western regions, Mykolaiv, Vinnitsa and Lugansk regions that have experienced a severe lack of rainfall. At the same time certain parts of Kherson, Zaporozhe and Dnipropetrovsk regions have seen torrential rains.
MY 2015/16 corn exports are forecast at 12.5 MMT; down from 19.4 MMT in MY 2014/15. MY 2015/16 wheat exports are forecast to increase to 15.6 MMT; a 4.4 MMT increase from MY 2014/15. MY 2015/16 barley exports are forecast at 4.5MMT; comparable to the MY2014/15 level. MY 2015/16 rye exports are forecast at 27,000 MT; slightly above the MY2014/15 level.
According to the preliminary data reported by the MAPF, Ukraine exported about 1.4 MMT of wheat and 1.2 MMT of barley from the beginning of MY 2015/16 through August 14, 2015.
Official data from the State Fiscal Service of Ukraine indicate Ukraine exported 4.5 MMT of barley in MY 2014/15; an 80 percent increase over MY 2013/14. Data for wheat exports indicate that Ukraine exported 10.9 MMT of wheat in MY 2014/15; 16 percent more exports than MY 2013/14. MY 2014/15 rye exports reached 22,000 MT; a 57 percent reduction from MY 2013/14.
Corn exports from October 2014 to June 2015 reached 18.2 MMT which is comparable with the pace of exports for the same period in the previous marketing year.
Wheat ending stocks are forecast to decrease to 4.8 MMT in MY 2015/16 from 5.2 MMT in MY 2014/15. MY 2015/16 barley ending stocks are projected to decrease to 8.5 MMT from 9 MMT in MY 2014/15.
MY 2015/16 corn ending stocks are projected to decrease to 1.4 MMT from 1.9 MMT in MY 2014/15.
Production, Supply and Demand Data Statistics
For MY2015/16 barley production is forecast to increase to 8.5 MMT and rye production to decrease to 365,000 MT reflecting decreased production area for these crops versus initial forecasts. The 2015 wheat crop is forecast to increase to 26.8 MMT based on the higher-than-expected crop productivity and this respectively translated into subsequent export volume increases. 2015 corn production is forecast to decrease to 21.1 MMT based on the expected impact of unfavorable weather conditions. Reduced exportable supplies are expected to cause MY 2015/16 corn exports to decrease to 12.5 MMT.
Ukraine's difficult economic situation and the subsequent influence on consumer demand is expected to reinforce the trend toward reduced animal inventories. In turn, food and feed consumption for all major grain crops is forecast to decrease in MY 2015/16 creating additional exportable supplies for wheat, barley and rye.