Report Highlights:

Post revises down its marketing year (MY) 2015/16 (Oct-Sept) soybean production forecast from 12.5 million metric tons (MMT) to 11 MMT. Abnormal weather conditions will reduce yields and lead to an overall production decline, despite higher area planted for kharif (fall harvest) oilseeds. Oilmeal exports in MY 2015/16 will reach their second lowest point during the past 10 years (3.3 MMT). Softening international vegetable oil prices will continue to encourage higher imports (14.5 MMT) of both soft and palm oils, notwithstanding of India's new five percent tariff hike for edible oils.

Below Normal Yields Will Offset Higher Area Planted to Oilseeds Based on a preliminary field assessment and prevailing weather conditions, Post revises downward its MY 2015/16 soybean production forecast from 12.5 MMT to 11 MMT. As well, Post expects that further downward revisions may follow in future updates due to additional-although still unquantified-crop damage. Post's planted area estimate is revised up from 11.5 million hectares to 11.6 million hectares. The latest progressive planting report from the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India (GOI) for crop year 2015 (July-June) states that area planted for kharif (fall harvest) soybeans, peanuts, and sunflower will be 15.3 million hectares, a three percent increase over the previous marketing year. Normal rainfall during peak planting through mid-July encouraged farmers to plant additional oilseed hectares, particularly soybean. Soybean planting in Madhya Pradesh, which accounts for about 54 percent of India's total soybean production, grew 6.5 percent over last year. Maharashtra, which accounts for32 percent of India's total soybean production, stood close to last year's level, while Rajasthan (eight percent of total production) experienced a 35-percent increase over last year. August and September saw deficit and uneven rainfall distribution in most production areas. Except for short-duration varieties, most soybeans were flowered and formed pods during these months and consequently, yields were adversely affected. Abnormal weather conditions in some growing areas also led to greater instances of pests, diseases, and weeds. Post contacts speculate that three to four percent of India's soybean area could be negatively affected, although these figures have not been officially quantified. The cumulative rainfall deficit, which hovered at around three percent by end of July, increased to 16 percent through mid-September. During the third week of September, precipitation occurred in many of India's production areas, but the soybean crop was in advanced stages of maturity and did not benefit much from the untimely rainfall. Moreover, the late rains could delay the harvest in several few places and decrease the productive recovery of the beans. Nonetheless, the accumulated soil moisture should support planting of winter crops such as wheat, pulses, and other oilseeds.

Concurrently, peanut area and production for MY 2015/16 is also revised lower to 4.6 million hectares and 5.6 MMT, respectively. This revision reflects lower-than-anticipated peanut planting during the 2015 kharif season. The latest planting report estimates kharif peanut acreage at 3.6 million hectares, down three percent from last season. Higher planting in Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Rajasthan was offset by lower planting in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. Gujarat contributes almost 40 of total kharif peanut production. The summer planting is assumed to be normal.

Similarly, total sunflower area and production for MY 2015/16 is also revised down to 580,000 hectares and 530,000 metric tons, respectively. The preceding forecast assumes normal growing conditions during the 2015 rabi (winter sown) season. The latest planting report indicate that kharif sunflower planted on 115,000 hectares compared to 171,000 hectares planted during corresponding period last year.

Softening International Prices Encouraging Vegetable Oil Imports

The MY 2015/16 vegetable oil imports are revised from an earlier estimate of 12.9 MMT to 14.5 MMT to indicate higher imports of both soft and palm oils. India's growing population, rising income levels, lower-than-anticipated oilseed production in MY 2015/16, and narrowing price premium for soft oils will support higher imports, which are forecast to rise six percent over MY 2014/15.

Recent import trends indicate that India will import upwards of 13.8 MMT of vegetable oils through MY 2014/15. Post's previous estimate was 12.7 MMT. According to the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) of India, July imports of edible oil reached 1.5 MMT, the highest level of any single month in the past two decades. Lower international prices are encouraging higher imports despite weaker domestic currency. The Indian currency depreciated by more than seven percent since October 2014. On September 17, 2015, GOI raised the import duty on both crude and refined edible oils by five percent to current 12.5 percent and 20 percent, respectively. The GOI raised the duty in an effort to protect Indian farmers and vegetable oil refiners from cheaper imports.

Indian Oilmeal Exports Lowest In Decades

MY 2015/16 oilmeal exports (which exclude rice bran and castor meal) are revised lower to 3.3 MMT, to reflect latest estimates. Sluggish international demand for Indian soymeal is likely to cap total oilmeal sales. The oilmeal export basket for MY 2015/16 will include 2.2 MMT of soymeal and 1.1 MMT of rapeseed meal. Likewise, oilmeal exports in MY 2014/15 are also revised lower to 1.9 MMT. Until last month, Indian oilmeal exports were down 54 percent to 1.8 MMT. Indian soymeal prices are not particularly in international market and therefore traditional buyers have opted for cheaper supplies from other prominent sources. Soymeal exports normally account for 70 percent of total oilmeal exports. Further, the capacity utilization for oilseed millers is at the lowest and many plants have closed down due to disparity in crushing beans to meal and oil (per SEA).

Oilseed, Soybean India

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

12,200

12,200

11,000

10,908

11,610

Area Harvested

12,200

12,000

11,000

10,908

11,610

Beginning Stocks

1,135

302

606

169

639

Production

9,500

9,500

10,500

9,800

11,000

MY Imports

4

0

2

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

10,639

9,802

11,108

9,969

11,639

MY Exports

183

183

250

200

200

MY Exp. to EU

21

0

18

20

25

Crush

8,300

7,600

7,600

7,200

8,800

Food Use Dom. Cons.

550

650

650

630

700

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,300

1,200

Total Dom. Cons.

9,850

9,450

9,650

9,130

10,700

Ending Stocks

606

169

1,208

639

739

Total Distribution

10,639

9,802

11,108

9,969

11,639

CY Imports

5

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

200

10

200

200

200

CY Exp. to U.S.

127

0

130

140

0

Meal, Soybean India

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

8,300

7,600

7,600

7,200

8,800

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.8000

0.8

0.8000

0.8

0.8160

Beginning Stocks

347

580

202

235

495

Production

6,640

6,080

6,080

5,760

7,181

MY Imports

7

0

7

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

6,994

6,660

6,289

5,995

7,676

MY Exports

2,742

2,825

1,650

1,200

2,200

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

200

400

260

500

550

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

3,850

3,200

4,030

3,800

4,400

Total Dom. Cons.

4,050

3,600

4,290

4,300

4,950

Ending Stocks

202

235

349

495

526

Total Distribution

6,994

6,660

6,289

5,995

7,676

CY Imports

7

0

7

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

2,950

3,800

3,000

3,800

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

SME

4,050

3,600

4,290

4,300

4,365

4,950

Oil, Soybean India

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

8,300

7,600

7,600

7,200

8,800

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.1781

0.1761

0.1776

0.176

0.1761

Beginning Stocks

248

521

255

488

655

Production

1,478

1,338

1,350

1,267

1,550

MY Imports

1,830

1,830

2,000

2,600

2,800

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

2

2

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,556

3,689

3,605

4,355

5,005

MY Exports

1

1

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

3,300

3,200

3,400

3,700

4,300

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

3,300

3,200

3,400

3,700

4,300

Ending Stocks

255

488

205

655

705

Total Distribution

3,556

3,689

3,605

4,355

5,005

CY Imports

1,600

1,000

2,000

1,100

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

15

0

15

0

CY Exports

1

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Oilseed, Peanut India

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

5400

5400

4600

4560

4600

Area Harvested

5400

5400

4600

4560

4600

Beginning Stocks

20

162

141

213

289

Production

5650

6500

4800

5200

5600

MY Imports

1

1

1

1

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

5671

6663

4942

5414

5889

MY Exports

785

650

475

475

540

MY Exp. to EU

20

20

20

20

30

Crush

3700

3600

3500

3050

3500

Food Use Dom. Cons.

630

1600

600

1100

1200

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

415

600

325

500

480

Total Dom. Cons.

4745

5800

4425

4650

5180

Ending Stocks

141

213

42

289

169

Total Distribution

5671

6663

4942

5414

5889

CY Imports

1

0

1

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

750

477

475

400

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Oil, Peanut India

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

3700

3600

3500

3050

3500

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.33

0.34

0.33

0.34

0.34

Beginning Stocks

10

139

11

383

153

Production

1220

1224

1150

1037

1190

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1230

1363

1161

1420

1343

MY Exports

4

5

5

5

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

10

15

10

15

15

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1205

960

1135

1247

1230

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1215

975

1145

1262

1245

Ending Stocks

11

383

11

153

98

Total Distribution

1230

1363

1161

1420

1343

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

4

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Oilseed, Sunflower seed

India

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

850

685

550

525

580

Area Harvested

755

680

550

525

580

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

Production

725

600

500

435

530

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

725

600

500

435

530

MY Exports

0

0

4

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

625

520

460

380

465

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

100

80

36

55

65

Total Dom. Cons.

725

600

496

435

530

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

725

600

500

435

530

CY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

4

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

Oil,

Sunflower India

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

585

520

460

380

465

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.359

0.3615

0.3543

0.3553

0.35483871

Beginning Stocks

116

272

172

388

323

Production

210

188

163

135

165

MY Imports

1528

1528

1550

1600

1700

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1,854

1,988

1,885

2,123

2188

MY Exports

2

0

2

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1680

1600

1775

1800

1900

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

1,680

1,600

1,775

1,800

1900

Ending Stocks

172

388

108

323

288

Total Distribution

1,854

1,988

1,885

2,123

2188

CY Imports

1,550

1,084

1,475

1,200

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Oil, Palm India

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Year Begin: Oct 2013

Market Year Begin: Oct 2014

Market Year Begin: Oct 2015

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

802

621

499

317

447

Production

50

171

50

180

200

MY Imports

7,847

7,875

8,900

9,250

9,700

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

8,699

8,667

9,449

9,747

10,347

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

350

350

400

500

600

Food Use Dom. Cons.

7,850

8,000

8,600

8,800

9,200

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

8,200

8,350

9,000

9,300

9,800

Ending Stocks

499

317

449

447

547

Total Distribution

8,699

8,667

9,449

9,747

10,347

CY Imports

8,200

7,100

8,700

7,100

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0