Abbreviations used in this report

Benelux = Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg

CAP = EU common agricultural policy

CY = Calendar year

e = Estimate (of a value/number for the current, not yet completed, marketing year)

EU-28 = European Union of 28 member states (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Finland, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom)

FSU = Former Soviet Union

f = Forecast (of a value/number for the next, not yet started, marketing year)

ha = Hectares

GE = Genetically engineered / Genetically engineered organisms

GHG = Greenhouse gas

MT = Metric ton (1000 kg)

MMT = Million metric tons

MS = EU Member State(s)

MY = Marketing year

NUTS2 = Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics level 2 = code for regions within a country

SME = Soybean meal equivalent

U.K. = United Kingdom

U.A.E. = United Arabic Emirates

U.S. = The United States of America

In this report "biofuel" includes only biofuels used in the transport sector. Biomass/biofuel used for electricity production or other technical uses such as lubricants or in detergents are included in "industrial use".

The marketing years used in this report are:

July-June

Rapeseed complex

October -September

Soybean complex

Sunflower complex

Production

Latest estimates of total EU-28 production in MY 2015/16 of major oilseeds (rapeseeds, sunflower and soybeans) show a year-on-year decrease of 11.3 percent which is less than previous expectations. This is mainly an effect of smaller sunflower acreage and even lower sunflower yields. Especially France, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, and Italy report a reduction of their sunflower crop due to persistently hot and dry weather conditions during July and August. Rapeseed crop turned out to be better in France, Spain and the U.K. but these gains were offset by smaller than anticipated production in Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic and the forecast for EU-28 total rapeseed production in MY 2015/16 remains unchanged. The hot and dry summer has also affected soybean yields but the significant increase in total soybean acreage is expected to result in an overall production increase of 9 percent.

Total of Major Oilseeds (Soybean, Rapeseed, Sunflower)

EU-28 Area of Major Oilseeds (in 1,000 ha)

Area

2012

2013

2014

2015e

Rapeseed

6,317

6,800

6,800

6,600

Sunflower

4,236

4,620

4,283

4,152

Soybeans

431

480

580

770

Total

10,984

11,900

11,663

11,522

Note: The years refer to the calendar year in which the harvest occurs (e.g. 2013 = harvested in CY 2013, marketed in MY 2013/14)

e = estimate

Source: FAS EU-28

EU-28 Major Oilseeds Production (in 1,000 MT)

Production

2012

2013

2014

2015e

Rapeseed

19,631

20,978

24,250

21,300

Sunflower

7,131

9,060

8,940

7,750

Soybeans

957

1,230

1,830

2,000

Total

27,719

31,268

35,020

31,050

Note: The years refer to the calendar year in which the harvest occurs (e.g. 2013 = harvested in CY 2013, marketed in MY 2013/14)

e = estimate

Source: FAS EU-28

EU-28 Major Oilseed Crush (in 1,000 MT)

Crush

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15e

MY 2015/16f

Rapeseed

22,700

23,950

24,800

23,400

Soybeans

12,325

13,400

13,500

13,800

Sunflower

6,540

7,600

7,550

7,100

Total

41,565

44,950

45,850

44,300

e= estimate, f = forecast

Source: FAS EU-28

Feed, Waste Use of Major Oilseeds Meals in the EU-28 (in 1,000 MT)

Feed, Waste Use Meals

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15e

MY 2015/16f

Soybeans

26,000

28,300

29,300

30,000

Rapeseed

12,900

13,600

13,900

13,450

Sunflower

7,000

7,200

7,150

7,125

Total

45,900

49,100

50,350

50,575

e= estimate, f = forecast

Source: FAS EU-28

Food Use of Major Oilseeds Oils in the EU-28 (in 1,000 MT)

Food Use Oil

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15e

MY 2015/16f

Rapeseed Oil

2,500

2,800

2,900

2,850

Soybean Oil

1,000

990

995

1,000

Sunflower Oil

3,300

3,400

3,500

3,490

Total Oils

6,800

7,190

7,395

7,340

e= estimate, f = forecast

Source: FAS EU-28

Biofuels Use of Major Oilseeds Oils in the EU-28 (in 1,000 MT)

Biofuels

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15e

MY 2015/16f

Feedstock/Rapeseed Oil

5,850

6,200

6,450

6,250

Feedstock/Soybean Oil

325

400

500

520

Feedstock/Sunflower Oil

92

140

120

105

Total

6,267

6,740

7,070

6,875

e= estimate, f = forecast

Source: FAS EU-28

Other Industrial Use of Major Oilseeds Oils in the EU28 (in 1,000 MT)

Other Industrial Use

MY 2012/13

MY 2013/14

MY 2014/15e

MY 2015/16f

Rapeseed Oil

850

750

750

750

Soybean Oil

516

500

450

430

Sunflower Oil

128

110

120

135

Total

1,494

1,360

1,320

1,315

e= estimate, f = forecast

Source: FAS EU-28

Soybean Complex

Trade figures are revised according to the most recent data available from the Global Trade Atlas; harvest and crush estimates from producing countries.

Oilseed, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

480

480

580

580

732

770

Area Harvested

472

471

566

570

730

760

Beginning Stocks

302

302

245

408

542

548

Production

1211

1230

1687

1830

1950

2000

MY Imports

12985

13293

13450

12850

13500

13100

MY Imp. from U.S.

3647

3647

3500

4400

3450

3750

Total Supply

14498

14825

15382

15088

15992

15648

MY Exports

57

57

120

120

100

120

Crush

13436

13400

13900

13500

14500

13800

Food Use Dom. Cons.

160

160

170

170

170

170

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

600

800

650

750

660

850

Total Dom. Cons.

14196

14360

14720

14420

15330

14820

Ending Stocks

245

408

542

548

562

708

Total Distribution

14498

14825

15382

15088

15992

15648

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Meal, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

13,436

13400

13900

13500

14100

13800

Beginning Stocks

120

120

170

133

318

241

Production

10,614

10500

10,980

10,700

11,455

10,900

MY Imports

18,175

18138

19,550

19,100

20,300

19,600

MY Imp. from U.S.

1,230

1228

1,300

1,120

1,200

1,150

Total Supply

28,909

28758

30,700

29,933

32,073

30,741

MY Exports

297

283

340

350

400

370

Industrial Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

10

10

Food Use Dom. Cons.

32

32

32

32

32

32

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

28,400

28300

30,000

29,300

31,350

30,000

Total Dom. Cons.

28,442

28342

30,042

29,342

31,392

30,042

Ending Stocks

170

133

318

241

281

329

Total Distribution

28,909

28758

30,700

29,933

32,073

30,741

(1000 MT)

Oil, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

13436

13400

14000

13500

14700

13800

Beginning Stocks

202

202

339

275

259

205

Production

2553

2450

2660

2565

2795

2620

MY Imports

325

329

260

260

150

180

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3080

2981

3259

3100

3204

3005

MY Exports

771

766

1000

900

950

900

Industrial Dom. Cons.

900

900

950

950

950

950

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1000

990

1000

995

1000

1000

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

70

50

50

50

50

50

Total Dom. Cons.

1970

1940

2000

1995

2000

2000

Ending Stocks

339

275

259

205

254

105

Total Distribution

3080

2981

3259

3100

3204

3005

(1000 MT)

MY 2015/16

The hot and dry summer has affected soybean yields, which are expected to be lower than in 2014/15. However, the significant increase in area compared to 2014/15 is expected to lead to a 9 percent increase in total soybean production. The area planted in soybeans goes up in all the producing countries. In Romania, France, and Hungary, the government supports soybean production in order to reduce the dependence on imports and the use of GE products. Overall, local soybean production remains minor compared to imports. In 2015/16, the EU is expected to produce 2,000 thousand MT of soybeans and to import 13,100 thousand MT of soybeans and 19,600 thousand MT of soybean meal.

In 2015/16, soybean crush is expected to increase compared to 2014/15. Soybean meal consumption should keep rising because of the tight rapeseed market (soybean meal substitutes rapeseed meal in feed rations) and because chicken broiler production keeps increasing in Poland. Soybean meal imports are expected to keep rising (+ 2.6 percent).

In 2015/16, soybean oil production is expected to increase by 2 percent compared to 2014/15 whereas consumption and exports could remain stable. As a consequence, imports are expected to go down.

MY 2014/15

In 2014/15, soybean production increases by 49 percent compared to 2013/14 to reach 1,830 thousand MT, which does not prevent soybean meal imports from keeping increasing (+ 5 percent) to 19,100 thousand MT.

Rapeseed Complex

Oilseed, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

July 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

6770

6800

6760

6800

6565

6600

Area Harvested

6767

6710

6757

6716

6509

6534

Beginning Stocks

2502

2502

2075

1844

2275

2074

Production

21304

20978

24394

24250

21300

21300

MY Imports

3495

3524

2356

2318

2200

2300

MY Imp. from U.S.

7

7

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

27301

27004

28825

28412

25775

25774

MY Exports

290

290

590

588

300

300

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

23966

23950

24990

24800

23300

23400

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

970

920

970

950

950

920

Total Dom. Cons.

24936

24870

25960

25750

24250

24420

Ending Stocks

2075

1844

2275

2074

1225

1054

Total Distribution

27301

27004

28825

28412

25775

25774

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Meal, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

23966

23950

24990

24800

23300

23400

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.575

0.566

0.575

0.564

0.575

0.564

Beginning Stocks

89

89

215

135

222

273

Production

13780

13550

14370

14000

13398

13200

MY Imports

457

457

451

452

450

450

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

14326

14096

15036

14587

14070

13923

MY Exports

361

361

414

414

300

300

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

13750

13600

14400

13900

13600

13450

Total Dom. Cons.

13750

13600

14400

13900

13600

13450

Ending Stocks

215

135

222

273

170

173

Total Distribution

14326

14096

15036

14587

14070

13923

Oil, Rapeseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

23966

23950

24990

24800

23300

23400

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.415

0.4171

0.415

0.4153

0.415

0.418

Beginning Stocks

32

32

203

214

279

269

Production

9946

9990

10371

10300

9670

9780

MY Imports

296

303

261

261

270

280

MY Imp. from U.S.

2

0

2

0

2

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

10274

10325

10835

10775

10219

10349

MY Exports

306

311

356

356

300

300

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

7450

6950

7675

7200

7300

7000

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2300

2800

2500

2900

2450

2850

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

15

50

25

50

25

50

Total Dom. Cons.

9765

9800

10200

10150

9775

9950

Ending Stocks

203

214

279

269

144

129

Total Distribution

10274

10325

10835

10775

10219

10349

MY 2015/16

The rapeseed harvest in France, Spain and the U.K. turned out better than expected. However these gains were offset by smaller than anticipated production in Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic. In total, European rapeseed production is expected to reach 21.3 MMT in MY 2015/16. This means that there are 3 MMT less domestically produced rapeseed available on the European market than in the 2014/15 when record production hit the European market. One factors for the decrease is that European farmers planted nearly 200,000 hectares less rapeseed than the year before. And, average yields in the EU were still good but down from last year.

The smaller supply of domestically produced rapeseed will lead to a tight European market. Global rapeseed demand is expected to outstrip production in 2015/16. Thus, there is not much upward potential for higher exports to Europe from Australia and Ukraine, the two main suppliers. Exports, crushing and ending stocks are expected to decrease significantly. This will also reduce the supply of rapeseed oil and meal. There is an ample supply of soybeans globally. If possible, oil mills will switch and start crushing soybeans instead of rapeseed. Thus, soybean meal is expected to substitute rapeseed meal in feed ratios to some extent.

MY 2014/15

European rapeseed production and crushing hit record levels in MY 2014/15. The abundant supply led to lower imports and high export volumes to Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Israel and Pakistan. Stocks also increased. The European dairy industry was the driving factor for rapeseed meal on the demand side. The use of rapeseed oil for biodiesel was still highly important but food use has also increasingly become a factor.

Sunflower Complex

Oilseed, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

4615

4620

4281

4283

4154

4152

Beginning Stocks

780

780

902

896

942

890

Production

9052

9060

8930

8940

7900

7750

MY Imports

319

319

250

240

200

200

MY Imp. from U.S.

41

41

40

40

40

0

Total Supply

10151

10159

10082

10076

9042

8840

MY Exports

713

713

600

600

400

400

Crush

7606

7600

7500

7550

7200

7100

Food Use Dom. Cons.

430

430

550

546

550

520

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

500

520

490

490

480

420

Total Dom. Cons.

8536

8550

8540

8586

8230

8040

Ending Stocks

902

896

942

890

412

400

Total Distribution

10151

10159

10082

10076

9042

8840

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Meal, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

7606

7600

7500

7550

7200

7100

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.543

0.5434

0.5429

0.54

0.5431

0.5394

Beginning Stocks

77

77

198

198

150

155

Production

4130

4130

4072

4077

3910

3830

MY Imports

3364

3364

3400

3300

3400

3450

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

7571

7571

7670

7575

7460

7435

MY Exports

173

173

245

270

180

200

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

7200

7200

7275

7150

7165

7125

Total Dom. Cons.

7200

7200

7275

7150

7165

7125

Ending Stocks

198

198

150

155

115

110

Total Distribution

7571

7571

7670

7575

7460

7435

Oil, Sunflowerseed

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

7606

7600

7500

7550

7200

7100

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.4194

0.4197

0.4193

0.4199

0.4194

0.4197

Beginning Stocks

58

58

255

255

200

195

Production

3190

3190

3145

3170

3020

2980

MY Imports

1039

1039

950

900

900

980

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4287

4287

4350

4325

4120

4155

MY Exports

372

372

380

380

300

300

Industrial Dom. Cons.

250

250

260

240

240

230

Food Use Dom. Cons.

3400

3400

3500

3500

3465

3490

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

10

10

10

10

10

10

Total Dom. Cons.

3660

3660

3770

3750

3715

3730

Ending Stocks

255

255

200

195

105

125

Total Distribution

4287

4287

4350

4325

4120

4155

Sunflower Seeds

MY2015/16

The latest estimate for the EU-28 shows that planted area under sunflower was reduced more significantly than estimated earlier, by 3 percent (131,000 HA) compared to MY2014/15. Major producing countries such as France, Spain, Romania and Bulgaria reduced planted and harvested areas, with the only exception of Hungary which increased its area by 5.5 percent. Italy, Portugal, Germany, Austria, Croatia, and Czech Republic had no changes in sunflower plantings this year.

Expectations for average yields have significantly deteriorated since early July. The weather in July and August has been persistently dry with scorching high temperatures in key producing countries. Adverse weather affected pollination and overall development of the crop. Despite variations among member states, early harvest reports show more than usual not-well-filled seeds, higher percentage of empty seeds, smaller size of seeds, and lower oil content.

As of early October, Spain estimates production reduction at 23 percent compared to MY2014/15, France at 19 percent, Bulgaria and Romania at 15 percent each, Hungary at 7 percent and Italy at 4 percent. Other producers also report reductions in their sunflower crops: Slovakia at 13 percent and Czech Republic at 25 percent. Overall, the combination of lower planted and harvested area in the EU-28 with unfavorable weather is projected currently to lead to a decline in our earlier estimate to 7.75 MMT. This is 14 percent lower than MY2014/15 production and below USDA official estimate from September. Harvest is still progressing in most member states and the present estimate may have a potential for a downward revision with the final harvest data.

Currently we forecast imports of sunflower seeds in MY2015/16 to be 15-17 percent lower than in MY2014/15. Despite shorter domestic supply in the EU-28 and likely good crops in traditional suppliers Ukraine and Russia, favorable crush demand in these countries is likely to prevent exports of seeds. In addition, Moldova which was the main source of sunflower seeds for the EU this marketing year also faces a poor crop and its exportable quantities are under question. Thus, lower availability in the EU-28 may also lead to a decline in exports of sunflower seeds. We revised our estimate for MY2015/16 exports to be significantly below (35 percent) the levels achieved in MY2014/15.

Beginning stocks in MY2015/16 are estimated to be also lower than previously expected since the crush at the end of MY2014/15 has been higher in select countries (Spain by 2 percent, Romania by 6 percent, Hungary by 22 percent, Bulgaria by 13 percent) which exceeded slight reductions in other member states (France by 1.5 percent and Italy). As a result, ending stocks in MY2014/15 declined and currently our estimate is below USDA official number and less than the ending stocks a year before. Thus the current marketing year starts with lower stocks, along with a 3-year low harvest, resulting in less domestic supply in the EU.

As a result, the current forecast for EU-28 crush is at lower level compared to the previous estimate and to MY2014/15 (by 6.0 percent). The EU crushing industry faces declining and much lower crushing margins compared to the previous season, and even stronger than previously expected competition from soybeans. Most member states forecast reduced crush compared to MY2014/15 (Spain 20 percent, France 6 percent, Romania 8 percent, Hungary 13 percent, Italy 4 percent, and Bulgaria 12 percent). However, despite the current price pressure from the vegetable oils, the EU-28 demand for edible sunflower oil remains good and less price elastic.

The demand for sunflower meal is likely to be lower due to less crush and availability but still stable due to projected better competitiveness compared to the rapeseed meal. At the same time, sunflower meal faces increasingly strong competition from soybean meal.

The forecast for food use and feed/seed/waste is also reduced due to lower supply and in the case with food use, due to reported challenges with quality.

MY2014/15

Marginal adjustments were done in trade figures to reflect the most recent trade data (World Trade Atlas as of July 2015). Moldova remained the major source of sunflower seeds for the EU, followed by the United States and Ukraine. In the period January-July 2015, EU imports of sunflower seeds were 13 percent higher with sourcing from Moldova at 78 percent more and from the United States at 5 percent more than a year earlier. However, the overall imports in MY2014/15 to date (October 2014-July 2015) were 22 percent lower compared to the previous season.

EU-28 exports of sunflower seeds for October 2014-July 2015 were 24 percent lower compared to the corresponding period in the previous year with major exporters being Romania and Bulgaria. The main reason for this decline was higher crush demand in these countries as well as weaker demand from traditional export markets. Main export destinations remained Pakistan, Turkey and South Africa. We estimate annual exports to be 15 percent lower in MY2014/15 compared to MY2013/14.

Sunflower Meal

MY2015/16

EU-28 sunflower meal output is forecast to have a bigger, 7 percent, reduction in line with the decline in crush. Imports are projected to increase (4-5 percent) compared to the current year to compensate for lower domestic availabilities with likely sources from the Black Sea. EU-28 demand for sunflower meal is likely to be still good but the use is forecast to decline (1-2 percent) compared with the current season due to likely more attractive use of soybean meal. The United Kingdom, France and Poland expect higher use of sunflower meal while other member states expect flat or lower consumption. High protein sunflower meal is still expanding its market share in the EU. Sunflower meal exports are forecast to decline by 25 percent due to lower supply, good domestic demand and expected stronger competition from the Black Sea exporters. Ending stocks are projected to decrease significantly and support tighter stocks- to- use ratio.

MY2014/15

Imports of sunflower meal during October 2014-July 2015 (World Trade Atlas) were 5 percent lower compared to the corresponding period in the previous season. Currently, we estimate the annual imports for the season to be 2.0 percent lower than in MY2013/14. However, higher crush and production in the second part of the season are likely to compensate for lower imports. Thus sunflower meal use in MY2014/15 is currently estimated to be only 1 percent lower than in MY2013/14.

Sunflower meal exports during October 2014-July 2015 grew by 76 percent compared to the corresponding period in MY2013/14 due to competitive prices and good export demand. Thus annual exports are likely to be over 50 percent above the previous season.

Sunflower Oil

MY2015/16

Sunflower oil output is forecast to decline by 6 percent across the EU due to lower crush. Imports should meet favorable food use demand and are projected to increase by 9 percent, likely sourced from Ukraine and maybe from Argentina in the second half of the season. Exports are projected to decline by 21 percent due to lower supply and tight regional competition in the Black Sea.

MY2014/15

Imports of sunflower oil during October 2014-July 2015 (World Trade Atlas) were 15 percent lower than imports in MY2013/14 as it slowed down in April-June due to declining stocks at exporters. Sunflower oil exports during October 2014- July 2015 were 21 percent higher than in the previous season due to good export demand (Turkey, South Africa, and Western Balkans). Similar to the market situation with sunflower meal, sunflower oil ending stocks were reduced by more than 20 percent compared to the previous season.