Report Highlights:

The Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture announced final cereal production for MY2015/2016 at 11.5 million MT, which was 69 percent higher compared to the previous year. The 2016 season started under favorable weather conditions with timely and adequate rainfall throughout most of the grain producing regions with the dam fill rates currently reported at around 72 percent. On October 12, 2015, the Government of Morocco reduced the import duties for wheat from 75 percent to 50 percent effective from November 1, 2015. For MY 2015/2016, FAS Rabat reduced its forecast for barley imports from 0.3 million MT to 0.2 million MT. Post maintains its estimate for wheat imports at 2.8 million MT.

Executive Summary:

Production

Morocco's 2016 season started under favorable weather conditions with timely and adequate rainfall throughout most of the grain production regions and with the dam fill rates currently reported at around 72 percent.

For MY2015/2016, Morocco's official grain crop production was announced at 11.5 million MT, which was 69 percent higher compared to production in the previous season. It consisted of 5.6 million MT of soft wheat, 2.4 million MT of durum wheat, and 3.5 million MT of barley. The production was in line with the target set in the Green Morocco Plan (GMP).

Morocco's grain production in million MT

Marketing Year Crop

Durum Wheat

Common Wheat

Total.

Wheat

Barley

Total Production

2009/2010

2.1

4.3

6.4

3.8

10.2

2010/2011

1.6

3.2

4.8

2.5

7.4

2011/2012

1.8

4.1

6.0

2.3

8.3

2012/2013

1.1

2.7

3.8

1.2

5.0

2013/2014

1.9

5.1

7.0

2.7

9.7

2014/2015

1.4

3.7

5.1

1.7

6.8

2015/2016

2.4

5.6

8.0

3.5

11.5

Government Support for Cereal Production

The government of Morocco will continue implementing a series of measures to support cereal production as part of the GMP. These measures include establishing a reference price for local wheat purchases, paying farmers a premium to store their wheat and encouraging them to use certified seeds, and supporting agricultural insurance. Other measures to support grain production include subsidies for farm machinery and irrigation equipment that range from 30 to 70 percent of the purchase cost and subsidizing soil testing to optimize fertilizer usage.

Trade

For MY2015/2016, FAS Rabat reduced its forecast for barley imports to 0.2 million MT (versus 0.3 million MT), and post maintains its estimate for wheat imports at 2.8 million MT. This is 33 percent lower than the volume imported in MY2014/2015 and can be explained by a good production and higher local surplus stock.

Morocco's cereals imports in MY 2014/2015 totaled 3,912,000 MT, including 3,335,000 MT of wheat and 437,000 MT of barley, which is almost the same volume imported in MY2013/14. EU took the lead in Morocco's wheat market, with 69 percent market share, while Canada supplied 15 percent, Ukraine 10 percent and Russia 4 percent. US exports were limited in MY2014/15 to 10,000 MT. For barley, France and Argentina supplied 80% of Morocco imports with 5% market share for Canada.

Price

Cereal farmers in Morocco have the option to sell their common wheat production to government licensed traders (grain merchants, cooperatives, and mills) at a preset price (2,600 dirham/MT) or sell it on the free market. Prices of other grains (including durum wheat and barley) are freely negotiated in the market place. During the period June 2012 to mid-October 2015, common wheat prices in the local markets averaged $269/MT. For the same period, durum wheat prices averaged $333/MT, while barley prices averaged $295/MT.

Grain Average Prices in Local Markets (dollars/MT)

Marketing

Year

Common

Wheat

Durum

Barley

2005/2006

264

301

254

2006/2007

254

297

215

2007/2008

326

391

330

2008/2009

278

351

280

2009/2010

250

281

179

2010/2011

261

295

227

2011/2012

267

327

315

2012/2013

291

347

316

2013/2014

263

328

294

2014/2015*

256

335

255

Policy

On October 12, 2015, the Government of Morocco announced a reduction for the import duties on soft wheat from 75 percent to 50 percent (Circulaire ## 2-15-810) and maintained the duty on durum wheat at 2.5 percent.

Wheat, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)

Wheat

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jun 2013

Jun 2014

Jun 2015

Morocco

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

3,280

3,280

3,060

3,060

3,200

3,200

Beginning Stocks

2,472

2,472

4,185

4,185

4,120

4,120

Production

7,000

7,000

5,100

5,100

8,000

8,000

MY Imports

3,928

3,928

4,073

4,073

2,800

2,800

TY Imports

3,892

3,892

4,073

4,073

2,800

2,800

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

10

10

0

0

Total Supply

13,400

13,400

13,358

13,358

14,920

14,920

MY Exports

215

215

238

238

250

250

TY Exports

220

220

222

222

250

250

Feed and Residual

600

600

400

400

800

800

FSI Consumption

8,400

8,400

8,600

8,600

9,000

9,000

Total Consumption

9,000

9,000

9,000

9,000

9,800

9,800

Ending Stocks

4,185

4,185

4,120

4,120

4,870

4,870

Total Distribution

13,400

13,400

13,358

13,358

14,920

14,920

Barley, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)

Barley

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Morocco

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

1,690

1,690

1,440

1,440

1,600

1,600

Beginning Stocks

189

189

976

976

376

376

Production

2,700

2,700

1,700

1,700

3,500

3,500

MY Imports

387

387

400

400

200

200

TY Imports

471

471

300

300

200

200

TY Imp. from U.S.

27

27

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,276

3,276

3,076

3,076

4,076

4,076

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

1,500

1,500

1,700

1,700

2,000

2,000

FSI Consumption

800

800

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

Total Consumption

2,300

2,300

2,700

2,700

3,000

3,000

Ending Stocks

976

976

376

376

1,076

1,076

Total Distribution

3,276

3,276

3,076

3,076

4,076

4,076

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)