Report Highlights:

Turkish soybean area and production for MY 2015 are estimated about 25,000 hectares and 90,000 MT. Competition from other crops such as corn, wheat and peanut in the soy growing areas had adverse effect on soy in farmers planting decisions. Turkey imported 2.2 MMT of soybeans and 450,000 MT of soybean meal during the MY 2014. While soy imports increased thirty-eight percent, soymeal imports declined thirty-seven percent. Increases in crushing capacity and industrial use of soy oil were the reasons for soy imports increase. The U.S. supplied about 805,000 MT of soybean and 47,000 MT of soybean meal. Since July 2015, the Biosafety Board had approved a total of four biotech soy events and nine corn events, which somewhat eased the import problems that traders were facing. Despite the avian influenza outbreak this year that affected exports of Turkish poultry and eggs, production continued to increase during the marketing year.

Soybeans

Oilseed, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Sep 2013

Sep 2014

Sep 2015

Turkey

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

35

35

40

35

30

25

Area Harvested

35

35

35

35

25

25

Beginning Stocks

206

206

219

287

358

359

Production

130

130

135

135

90

90

MY Imports

1608

1608

2197

2197

2300

2300

MY Imp. from U.S.

350

350

450

805

450

900

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

32

0

30

Total Supply

1944

1944

2551

2619

2748

2749

MY Exports

7

7

93

10

50

14

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

600

600

950

1150

1200

1250

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1050

1050

1150

1100

1200

1150

Total Dom. Cons.

1650

1650

2100

2250

2400

2400

Ending Stocks

219

287

358

359

298

335

Total Distribution

1944

1944

2551

2619

2748

2749

CY Imports

2008

2008

2000

2200

2300

2300

CY Imp. from U.S.

492

492

450

700

450

850

CY Exports

3

3

70

12

40

15

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

(Tables In thousands of hectares and thousands of metric tons)

Production

MY2015 domestic soybean planting is estimated about 25,000 hectares and 90,000 MT down from 35,000 hectares and 135,000 MT of last year. In Cukurova region, where ninety-five percent of the local soybean crop is grown, farmers switched to wheat and corn. Also a three-fold increase in local peanut prices persuaded some farmers to plant peanuts in the region.

Consumption

Turkey's poultry meat and eggs industries continued to grow during MY 2014 despite the export obstacles caused by the avian influenza, as well as the import obstacles caused by the biosafety law which impacts feed materials.

In MY 2014, due to contamination of unapproved biotech events in shipments, the industry and traders suffered rejection of cargos and had to face heavy financial losses. Rejection of cargos also caused shortage of the raw material in the domestic market and big price increases for these items. After months of negotiations with the Turkish officials, Besd-Bir (Turkish Poultry Meat Producers Association) had applied for approval of a total of 9 biotech soy events along with 14 corn, 10 cotton and 4 canola varieties under the speedy application regime. Accordingly, the Biosafety Board started to approve some of these events. In July 2015, the board announced approval of three corn events and two soy events. In November 2015, the Board also approved two soy events and six corn events. The remaining 24 traits are still undergoing risk and socio-economic assessments. Prior to the recent approvals, only three soy and 15 corn biotech events were approved for feed use in Turkey. The recent new approvals are not viewed by the trade as full relief, but somewhat of a relief, and they expect to face fewer problems in coming months during imports. The industry is expecting the rest of the events to be approved in a relatively shorter time and imports are expected to go back to normal flow.

In May 2015, the avian influenza cases, mostly in layer operations, in different regions of Turkey effected egg production. Following the outbreak, major buyers of Turkish poultry meat and eggs such as Iraq, Azerbaijan and Russia stopped purchases for 90 days. After the import ban ended on poultry products, exports gradually started to go back to usual levels. Increased Russian importers following the sanctions also help the Turkish poultry industry. Accordingly, Russia imported 20,000 MT of poultry meat and 13 million table eggs during MY 2104 from Turkey and up until October 2015 has imported 22,000 MT of poultry. A day after the events on November 24th between Russia and Turkey on the Turkey-Syrian border, Russian government announced that on December 1, 2015 they will stop importing poultry meat from Turkey. Exports to Russia account for fewer than 5% of turkey's total poultry exports. Post will monitor this announced ban's impact on the Turkish poultry sector.

Additionally, following the avian influenza outbreak in Turkey, the domestic market was somewhat affected by the negative press, but consumers mostly acted as though they trusted the measures taken by the authorities and took advantage of the lower domestic prices during the export sanctions that supported domestic consumption. Additionally, about 2.5 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey also contribute to local consumption.

Trade

Issues caused by the biosafety law during MY 2014 prevented the industry from receiving supplies in timely fashion. Many shipments were rejected and sent to different destinations, causing significant loses for the industry.

Total soybean imports during the MY 2014 were 2,197,000 MT, up about thirty-eight percent compared to last year. The U.S. was the leading supplier with 805,000 MT, closely followed by Ukraine with 800,000 MT. Imports from Ukraine increased more than three-fold due geographical proximity and benefiting from the obstacles created during imports for biotech soy. Brazil (200,500 MT) and Paraguay (314,000 MT) were the other suppliers.

Turkey also imported 85,000 MT of soybean in September 2015, Ukraine and Paraguay were the leading suppliers with 52,000 MT and 22,000 MT respectively.

Soy exports were about 10,300 MT during MY 2014. Holland (3,800 MT), Slovenia (2,600 MT) and N. Cyprus (1,500 MT) were the main destinations. Turkey also exported about 515 MT of organic soybeans to the United States.

Soybean meal

Meal, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Turkey

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

600

600

950

1150

1200

1250

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.7917

0.76

0.7895

0.76

0.7917

0

Beginning Stocks

292

292

219

191

119

219

Production

475

460

750

875

950

950

MY Imports

744

728

465

450

600

500

MY Imp. from U.S.

242

242

140

47

140

150

MY Imp. from EU

240

18

240

15

240

10

Total Supply

1511

1480

1434

1516

1669

1669

MY Exports

52

49

115

37

70

49

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

2

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

1240

1240

1200

1320

1400

1400

Total Dom. Cons.

1240

0

1200

1320

1400

1400

Ending Stocks

219

191

119

219

199

220

Total Distribution

1511

1480

1434

1516

1669

1669

CY Imports

634

616

500

400

600

650

CY Imp. from U.S.

139

169

140

60

140

150

CY Exports

63

64

100

50

70

60

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

Favorable domestic crushing margins continued to fuel soymeal production increase. MY 2014 production increased about ninety percent and reached 875,000 MT. Provided that crushing margins continue as they are, domestic soymeal production is expected to remain high since crushers will continue to utilize the large capacity that they have.

Consumption

While domestic production is increasing, consumption is also increasing despite the competition of other meals. Poultry meat and eggs producers faced difficulties exporting due to bans imposed by importing countries following the avian influenza outbreak in Turkey. So Turkish producers discounted their prices in the domestic market, which as expected, led to increased local consumption of poultry and eggs. Soymeal consumption in MY 2015 is projected to be about 1.4 MMT due to projected increase in domestic consumption and exports of poultry meat and eggs.

Trade

Turkey has imported a total of 450,000 MT of soybean meal during MY 2014 down about thirty-seven percent compared to the last marketing year. The reason for the decline was the increases in domestic production as a result of favorable domestic crushing margins fueled by increase industrial use of soy oil.

Argentina (196,000 MT), Brazil (90,000 MT) and Ukraine (60,000 MT) were the leading suppliers. The U.S. also supplied 47,000 MT of soymeal during the same period. Turkey exported about 52,000 MT of soymeal during MY 2014. Iraq (33,000 MT), N. Cyprus (12,000 MT), and Syria (2,500 MT) were the main destinations.

Soybean oil

Oil, Soybean

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2013

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Turkey

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

600

600

950

1150

1200

1200

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.1783

0.178

0.1789

0

0.1792

0.178

Beginning Stocks

10

5

10

10

15

35

Production

107

107

170

205

215

215

MY Imports

8

8

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

5

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

125

120

180

215

230

250

MY Exports

3

3

20

7

40

15

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

37

32

80

95

100

110

Food Use Dom. Cons.

20

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

55

75

65

78

70

80

Total Dom. Cons.

112

107

145

180

170

185

Ending Stocks

10

10

15

35

20

45

Total Distribution

125

120

180

215

230

250

CY Imports

5

5

8

0

2

0

CY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

CY Exports

3

3

20

10

40

15

CY Exp. to U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Main soy oil usage area in Turkey continues to be poultry feed and industrial use since no GE soybeans have been approved for food use in Turkey, soy oil can't be used in food if it is produced from biotech soybeans. Due to the large domestic crushing for industrial use, Turkey didn't import soy oil in MY 2014. Exports, however, were about 6,500 MT, of which 3,300 MT were to Iraq, 2,300 MT to North Cyprus, and 500 MT to Israel.