Report Highlights:

Post concurs with the USDA Official wheat estimates. Typhoon Koppu passed through the Philippines in October 2015 resulting in flooding of grain areas in Luzon. Corn losses were minimal as the majority of the crop was already harvested, but damage to rice was considerable. As a result, MY15/16 corn and rice production are expected to decline from MY14/15 levels. MY15/16 corn area harvested will likely remain flat, while rice areas are expected to decline from the MY14/15 level. MY15/16 rice imports were raised 200,000 tons to 2.1 million tons in anticipation of the El Nino dry spell through mid-2016.

Wheat

Wheat

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

May 2013

May 2014

May 2015

Philippines

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

876

876

781

781

1256

1256

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

3482

3482

5099

5099

4800

4800

TY Imports

3482

3482

5099

5099

4800

4800

TY Imp. from U.S.

2070

2070

2269

2269

0

0

Total Supply

4358

4358

5880

5880

6056

6056

MY Exports

32

32

49

49

45

45

TY Exports

32

32

49

49

45

45

Feed and Residual

1250

1250

2100

2100

2300

2300

FSI Consumption

2295

2295

2475

2475

2600

2600

Total Consumption

3545

3545

4575

4575

4900

4900

Ending Stocks

781

781

1256

1256

1111

1111

Total Distribution

4358

4358

5880

5880

6056

6056

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Corn

Corn

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

May 2015

Philippines

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

2584

2584

2561

2561

2600

2556

Beginning Stocks

576

576

849

849

601

693

Production

7532

7532

7671

7671

7800

7553

MY Imports

741

741

581

673

500

500

TY Imports

803

803

550

580

500

500

TY Imp. from U.S.

56

56

68

0

0

0

Total Supply

8849

8849

9101

9193

8901

8746

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

5900

5900

6300

6300

6400

6400

FSI Consumption

2100

2100

2200

2200

2200

2200

Total Consumption

8000

8000

8500

8500

8600

8600

Ending Stocks

849

849

601

693

301

146

Total Distribution

8849

8849

9101

9193

8901

8746

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

MY and TY14/15 corn imports were modestly raised based on updated customs data. For MY15/16, area harvested and output were adjusted to reflect the latest estimates (October 2015) from the Philippine Statistical Authority (PSA). Continuous rains brought by Typhoon Koppu affected grain producing areas in the main island of Luzon. Total damages reached P9.9 billion ($215 million) worth of agriculture and infrastructure, according to Philippine government (GPH) estimates. The Philippine Department of Agriculture (DA) estimates corn losses to be minimal as the majority of the crop had already been harvested.

Additionally, stocks were adjusted downward to compensate for losses in MY 15/16.

Rice

Rice, Milled

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

May 2015

Philippines

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

4800

4800

4705

4705

4350

4665

Beginning Stocks

1487

1487

1695

1695

2210

2210

Milled Production

11858

11858

11915

11915

11250

11528

Rough Production

18822

18822

18913

18913

17857

18298

Milling Rate (.9999)

6300

6300

6300

6300

6300

6300

MY Imports

1200

1200

1800

1800

1900

2100

TY Imports

1800

1800

1800

1800

1800

2100

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

14545

14545

15410

15410

15360

15838

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

12850

12850

13200

13200

13250

13250

Ending Stocks

1695

1695

2210

2210

2110

2588

Total Distribution

14545

14545

15410

15410

15360

15838

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

MY15/16 rice area harvested and production were revised upward based on the latest PSA grain report. Losses from Typhoon Koppu were not as devastating as originally thought.

MY15/16 imports were raised to 2.1 million tons from 1.9 million tons.

GPH planners had earlier estimated 1.3 million tons of milled rice would be needed to cover losses from Typhoon Koppu and to strengthen stocks as the El Nino dry spell is expected to intensify through mid-2016. The DA had estimated rice damages from Typhoon Koppu at roughly 470,000 tons of paddy. However, rains brought about by Koppu (and succeeding typhoons) replenished irrigation water in major dams, and are expected to mitigate dry conditions brought about by El Nino weather patterns, offsetting some losses.