Report Highlights:

For MY 2015/16, FAS Rabat revised post's estimate for wheat imports from 2.8 million MT to 3 million MT. This estimate is based on increasing demand as stocks have been drawn down. In addition, the MY 2016/17 season started under unfavorable conditions with a significant shortage in rainfall. With the current drought, wheat imports are expected to occur earlier in the year in anticipation of a smaller harvest next summer. Post maintains its estimate for barley imports at 0.2 million MT.

General Information:

Post revised its forecast for Morocco's MY2015/16 wheat imports from 2.8 million MT to 3 million MT based on the demand situation as stocks have been drawn down and the government has cut the import duty on soft wheat to ensure adequate supplies for the domestic market.

As of January 1, 2016, Morocco estimates total stock of soft wheat at 760,000, durum wheat at 105,000 MT, and barley at 102,000 MT. These stocks will cover domestic demand only through March, and consequently, imports are expected to rise. According to the trade, soft wheat imports will be between 2.8 MMT and 3.1 MMT. With this year's drought, imports are expected to increase earlier than anticipated.

The 2016/17 season started under very unfavorable conditions with a significant shortage in rainfall compared to an average year. Morocco dams cover only 15 percent of its agricultural land with rain fed agricultural production accounting for 85 percent. On December 23, 2015, the Government of Morocco (GOM) reduced the import duties for bread wheat from 50 percent to 30 percent to ensure adequate supplies for the domestic market and to maintain a reference price target of 2,600 dirhams/MT ($263).

On December 17, 2015, the Government of Morocco opened a tender for 360,000 MT of soft wheat and 315,000 MT of durum wheat under the U.S. Free Trade Agreement Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ). The Moroccan National Office of Cereals (ONICL) accepted one bid to import a total of 9,800 MT of soft wheat under this tender, and there were no bids for durum wheat.

Wheat, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)

Wheat

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jun 2014

Jun 2015

Morocco

USDA Official

Old Post

New Post

USDA Official

Old Post

New Post

Area Harvested

3,060

3,060

3,060

3,200

3,200

3,200

Beginning Stocks

4,185

4,185

4,185

4,120

4,235

4,120

Production

5,100

5,100

5,100

8,000

8,000

8,000

MY Imports

4,073

4,200

4,073

2,800

2,800

3,000

TY Imports

4,073

4,200

4,073

2,800

-

3,000

TY Imp. from U.S.

10

10

10

-

-

9

Total Supply

13,358

13,485

13,358

14,920

15,035

15,129

MY Exports

238

250

238

250

250

250

TY Exports

224

250

222

250

250

250

Feed and Residual

400

400

400

800

800

800

FSI Consumption

8,600

8,600

8,600

9,000

9,000

9,000

Total Consumption

9,000

9,000

9,000

9,800

9,800

9,800

Ending Stocks

4,120

4,235

4,120

4,870

4,985

5,070

Total Distribution

13,358

13,485

13,358

14,920

15,035

15,120

Barley, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)

Barley

2013/2014

2014/2015

2015/2016

Market Begin Year

Jul 2013

Jul 2014

Jul 2015

Morocco

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

1,690

1,690

1,440

1,440

1,600

1,600

Beginning Stocks

189

189

976

976

376

376

Production

2,700

2,700

1,700

1,700

3,500

3,500

MY Imports

387

387

400

400

200

200

TY Imports

471

471

300

300

200

200

TY Imp. from U.S.

27

27

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

3,276

3,276

3,076

3,076

4,076

4,076

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed and Residual

1,500

1,500

1,700

1,700

2,000

2,000

FSI Consumption

800

800

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

Total Consumption

2,300

2,300

2,700

2,700

3,000

3,000

Ending Stocks

976

976

376

376

1,076

1,076

Total Distribution

3,276

3,276

3,076

3,076

4,076

4,076