Morocco. Grain and Feed Update. Jan 2016 Jan. 27, 2016
Report Highlights:
For MY 2015/16, FAS Rabat revised post's estimate for wheat imports from 2.8 million MT to 3 million MT. This estimate is based on increasing demand as stocks have been drawn down. In addition, the MY 2016/17 season started under unfavorable conditions with a significant shortage in rainfall. With the current drought, wheat imports are expected to occur earlier in the year in anticipation of a smaller harvest next summer. Post maintains its estimate for barley imports at 0.2 million MT.
General Information:
Post revised its forecast for Morocco's MY2015/16 wheat imports from 2.8 million MT to 3 million MT based on the demand situation as stocks have been drawn down and the government has cut the import duty on soft wheat to ensure adequate supplies for the domestic market.
As of January 1, 2016, Morocco estimates total stock of soft wheat at 760,000, durum wheat at 105,000 MT, and barley at 102,000 MT. These stocks will cover domestic demand only through March, and consequently, imports are expected to rise. According to the trade, soft wheat imports will be between 2.8 MMT and 3.1 MMT. With this year's drought, imports are expected to increase earlier than anticipated.
The 2016/17 season started under very unfavorable conditions with a significant shortage in rainfall compared to an average year. Morocco dams cover only 15 percent of its agricultural land with rain fed agricultural production accounting for 85 percent. On December 23, 2015, the Government of Morocco (GOM) reduced the import duties for bread wheat from 50 percent to 30 percent to ensure adequate supplies for the domestic market and to maintain a reference price target of 2,600 dirhams/MT ($263).
On December 17, 2015, the Government of Morocco opened a tender for 360,000 MT of soft wheat and 315,000 MT of durum wheat under the U.S. Free Trade Agreement Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ). The Moroccan National Office of Cereals (ONICL) accepted one bid to import a total of 9,800 MT of soft wheat under this tender, and there were no bids for durum wheat.
Wheat, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)
Wheat | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | ||||
Market Begin Year | Jun 2014 | Jun 2015 | ||||
Morocco | USDA Official | Old Post | New Post | USDA Official | Old Post | New Post |
Area Harvested | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,060 | 3,200 | 3,200 | 3,200 |
Beginning Stocks | 4,185 | 4,185 | 4,185 | 4,120 | 4,235 | 4,120 |
Production | 5,100 | 5,100 | 5,100 | 8,000 | 8,000 | 8,000 |
MY Imports | 4,073 | 4,200 | 4,073 | 2,800 | 2,800 | 3,000 |
TY Imports | 4,073 | 4,200 | 4,073 | 2,800 | - | 3,000 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 10 | 10 | 10 | - | - | 9 |
Total Supply | 13,358 | 13,485 | 13,358 | 14,920 | 15,035 | 15,129 |
MY Exports | 238 | 250 | 238 | 250 | 250 | 250 |
TY Exports | 224 | 250 | 222 | 250 | 250 | 250 |
Feed and Residual | 400 | 400 | 400 | 800 | 800 | 800 |
FSI Consumption | 8,600 | 8,600 | 8,600 | 9,000 | 9,000 | 9,000 |
Total Consumption | 9,000 | 9,000 | 9,000 | 9,800 | 9,800 | 9,800 |
Ending Stocks | 4,120 | 4,235 | 4,120 | 4,870 | 4,985 | 5,070 |
Total Distribution | 13,358 | 13,485 | 13,358 | 14,920 | 15,035 | 15,120 |
Barley, Morocco (Areas in 1,000 HA and Quantities in 1,000 MT)
Barley | 2013/2014 | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | |||
Market Begin Year | Jul 2013 | Jul 2014 | Jul 2015 | |||
Morocco | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Harvested | 1,690 | 1,690 | 1,440 | 1,440 | 1,600 | 1,600 |
Beginning Stocks | 189 | 189 | 976 | 976 | 376 | 376 |
Production | 2,700 | 2,700 | 1,700 | 1,700 | 3,500 | 3,500 |
MY Imports | 387 | 387 | 400 | 400 | 200 | 200 |
TY Imports | 471 | 471 | 300 | 300 | 200 | 200 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 27 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 3,276 | 3,276 | 3,076 | 3,076 | 4,076 | 4,076 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
TY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Feed and Residual | 1,500 | 1,500 | 1,700 | 1,700 | 2,000 | 2,000 |
FSI Consumption | 800 | 800 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 | 1,000 |
Total Consumption | 2,300 | 2,300 | 2,700 | 2,700 | 3,000 | 3,000 |
Ending Stocks | 976 | 976 | 376 | 376 | 1,076 | 1,076 |
Total Distribution | 3,276 | 3,276 | 3,076 | 3,076 | 4,076 | 4,076 |