Executive Summary:

The CY 2016 cattle and water buffalo population forecast levels are revised up to 302.6 million head due to less slaughter in CY 2015 because of low demand in the Southeast Asian market. CY 2016 water buffalo meat (carabeef) production is estimated at 4.45 million metric tons (MMT) carcass weight equivalent (CWE) on expectations of stronger export demand in Southeast Asian countries. CY 2016 carabeef exports are projected at 2.1 MMT CWE on expectations of stronger demand from Southeast Asian countries.

Production:

The CY 2016 cattle and water buffalo population forecast levels are revised up to 302.6 million head due to less slaughter in CY 2015 because of low demand in the Southeast Asian market. CY 2016 carabeef production is estimated at 4.45 MMT CWE on expectations of stronger export demand in Southeast Asian countries. CY 2015 carabeef production level estimates are lowered to 4.1 MMT CWE on less exports.

India's carabeef production is mainly concentrated in Uttar Pradesh, Kerala, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Maharashtra. Throughout the past year, sensitivities remain with certain religious and political groups on whether Indian consumers should be allowed to eat beef. Although cow slaughter is almost completely prohibited in India, it is allowed in two states: West Bengal and Kerala. Consumption:

The CY 2016 domestic consumption forecast remains unchanged at 2.35 MMT CWE. Chicken meat is the most preferred non-vegetarian protein source followed by carabeef due to its affordability.

Trade:

CY 2016 carabeef exports are projected at 2.1 MMT CWE on expectations of stronger demand from Southeast Asian countries. Vietnam is the largest export market for India followed by Egypt, Malaysia, Thailand, and Saudi Arabia. CY 2015 carabeef exports are lowered to 1.9 MMT on slow export pace.

Policy:

Carabeef Production Programs and Policies

The Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying, and Fisheries (DAHDF) within the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer's Welfare focuses on policies and programs to improve the productivity of the livestock sector. For information on these policies, including information on other programs that affect the carabeef industry, such as the National Dairy Plan. The Government of India's Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) approves the export-oriented slaughterhouses/meat processing units and provides guidance to industry for sanitary and hygiene standards for the products destined for export markets. The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI) regulate domestic slaughter and meat processing industry through the regulation entitled: Food Safety and Standards Rules and Regulation, 2011 (FSSR).

Trade Policy

The DAHDF regulates imports of livestock and related products through the Livestock Importation Act, 1898 and its further amendments. All livestock products including meat product exports to India require a sanitary import permit issued by DAHDF. India does not permit beef and beef product imports.

India: Commodity, Animal Numbers, Cattle, PSD

Animal Numbers, Cattle

2014

2015

2016

Market Begin Year

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

300600

300600

301100

301100

301600

302600

Dairy Cows Beg. Stocks

123000

123000

125000

125000

127000

127000

Beef Cows Beg. Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production (Calf Crop)

66000

66000

67000

67000

68000

68000

Total Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

366600

366600

368100

368100

369600

370600

Total Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Cow Slaughter

0

0

0

0

0

0

Calf Slaughter

0

0

0

0

0

0

Other Slaughter

37000

37000

38000

37000

40500

40000

Total Slaughter

37000

37000

38000

37000

40500

40000

Loss

28500

28500

28500

28500

27200

28000

Ending Inventories

301100

301100

301600

302600

301900

302600

Total Distribution

366600

366600

368100

368100

369600

370600

India: Commodity, Meat, Beef and Veal, PSD

Meat, Beef and Veal

2014

2015

2016

Market Begin Year

Jan 2014

Jan 2015

Jan 2016

India

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

Slaughter (Reference)

37000

37000

38000

37000

40500

40000

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

4100

4100

4200

4100

4500

4450

Total Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4100

4100

4200

4100

4500

4450

Total Exports

2082

2082

2000

1900

2175

2100

Human Dom. Consumption

2018

2018

2200

2200

2325

2350

Other Use, Losses

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Consumption

2018

2018

2200

2200

2325

2350

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

4100

4100

4200

4100

4500

4450