Report Highlights:

The EU-28 broiler meat production is expected to increase in 2016. Consumers have been switching from other meats to broiler meat (cheaper and more convenient), due to difficult economic situation in the EU-28 region, driving increases in domestic poultry consumption. EU-28 broiler meat imports are still forecast to remain flat in 2016 with lower imports from Brazil and higher imports from Ukraine. EU-28 broiler meat exports in 2016 are expected to increase slightly despite lower exports to South Africa, because of a resumption of exports of whole broilers (mostly from France) to Saudi Arabia and parts to new markets, such as the Philippines and Ukraine.

Production:

The EU-28 broiler meat production forecast for 2016 has been increased 1.5 percent from 2015, with the biggest hikes taking place in France, Poland, and United Kingdom due to strong domestic demand and strong exports. Production is expected to remain stable in Germany, mainly because of stricter welfare rules, and to decline slightly in Spain, due to excessive pressure on producer margins. The local outbreaks of Avian Influenza (AI) in several EU-28 member States, notably France and Germany, are not expected to have any significant impact on the production levels. Note that 2014 broiler production has been lowered, because of revised production data received from Spain and Hungary.

Consumption:

The EU-28 domestic consumption of broiler meat is still expected to increase slightly more than total population growth in 2016, indicating a small increase in per-capita consumption. This is due to the switch from other meats to broiler meat, mainly because of the difficult economic situation in the EU-28 region.

Trade:

Broiler meat imports are expected to remain flat in 2016, due to the economic situation in the EU-28 region and the competiveness of domestically produced broiler meat. Ukraine is becoming an important supplier of broiler meat to the EU-28, displacing imports from Brazil.

After a disappointing year in 2015 which led to very slow growth, mainly due to the South African anti-dumping tariff on broiler meat from several EU countries and lower exports to Benin and Hong Kong, EU-28 broiler meat exports in 2016 are expected to resume growth with increased exports to Saudi Arabia, Philippines, Ghana and Ukraine.

Poultry, Meat, Broiler

2014

2015

2016

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

European Union

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Inventory (Reference)

0

0

0

0

0

0

Slaughter (Reference)

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Production

10330

10280

10600

10620

10845

10760

Total Imports

709

712

710

710

720

710

Total Supply

11039

10992

11310

11330

11565

11470

Total Exports

1133

1125

1150

1135

1190

1180

Human Consumption

9906

9867

10160

10195

10375

10290

Other Use, Losses

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Consumption

9906

9867

10160

10195

10375

10290

Total Use

11039

10992

11310

11330

11565

11470

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

11039

10992

11310

11330

11565

11470

(MIL HEAD), (1000 MT)