Report Highlights:

Palm oil production estimates for 2015/16 remain unchanged at 33 million metric tons. Assuming the return of normal weather conditions, Post expects 2016/17 palm oil production to recover to 33.5 million metric tons. Post's estimate for 2015/16 consumption remains at 9.42 million metric tons. 2016/17 industrial consumption is expected to grow to 3.5 million metric tons, (led by biodiesel). Total consumption is thus expected to reach 9.62 million metric tons. 2015/16 soybean production is expected to decline back to 600,000 metric tons, as Indonesian weather conditions return to normal and farmers plant corn and rice in place of soybean. 2016/17 soybean production is expected to remain stable at 600,000 metric tons, with Post noting no significant policy changes that would significantly change soybean production. Indonesia's National Statistical Agency (BPS) continues to report declining area planted to coconut. Post therefore expects copra production to fall to 1.59 million metric tons in MY 2015/16 and 1.58 million metric tons in MY 2016/17

Oil, Palm

Production

Indonesian palm oil plantings are slowing, with Post estimating a one percent expansion in 2016/17. Several factors have slowed planting. These include land ownership conflicts, with industry contacts reporting that the lack of an effective system to resolve land title disputes prevents new land from coming into production. Likewise, industry contacts also report that declining palm oil prices may have some short term effect on new plantings and plantation replacement.

Industry sources have commented that the 2015/16 El Nino phenomenon has had a significant effect on palm plantings, with seed sales dropping nine percent from 2014 (and 45 percent since 2012). They report that dry weather through 2015 and into 2016 delayed plantings, leaving little space in nurseries for new seedlings. As a result, two year old potted trees remained in nurseries, and new seedling plantings were delayed. Post expects a slight uptick in plantings as weather recovers to more typical patterns. However, overall production is expected to lag, as low seed sales in 2015 imply reduced plantings in 2017.

Oil, Palm

Multiple industry sources indicate that year-on-year monthly production is down. Reports indicate that plantations in southern Sumatra are worse hit, with declines below seasonal averages. Despite these drops, Post is hesitant to push production estimates lower, noting that production declines are typical in the early months of the calendar year. Post will continue to observe production data from private industry in order to gauge the extent of production losses due to El Nino as well as the recovery period for Indonesian palm oil producers. As a result, palm oil production estimates for 2015/16 remain unchanged at 33 million metric tons. Assuming the return of normal weather conditions, Post expects 2016/17 palm oil production to recover to 33.5 million metric tons.

Consumption

The fundamentals surrounding the growth of Indonesia's palm oil consumption remain unchanged since Post's last report . According to the Indonesian Estate Crop Fund for Palm Oil (BPDPS), Indonesia's palm oil levy is expected to generate between 9.5 and 10 trillion Rupiah, more than 90 percent of which will be used to subsidize biodiesel consumption. An additional 5 trillion Rupiah (over 300 million U.S. dollars) of levy revenue remains from 2015 and will be carried over into 2016. While target blending rates have been set at 20 percent for the transportation sector, BPDPS reports actual blending rates average between 10 and 15 percent. Indonesian electricity generation officials report that biodiesel accounts for less than .5 percent of Indonesia's total electricity generation, and that coal-fired power plants have a more promising future.

BPDPS reports some concern regarding the sustainability of the biodiesel program due to lower-than-expected crude oil prices (They have set their budgets assuming crude oil prices at 40 dollars per barrel). However, they counter the problem by highlighting the 5 trillion Rupiah that was rolled over from the 2015 calendar year, providing some buffer against cheap crude oil.

Industrial consumption estimates are linked directly to the palm oil levy, which is directly tied to palm oil exports. Post's estimate for 2015/16 exports remains unchanged, thus 2015/16 industrial consumption remains unchanged at 3.4 million metric tons. Overall 2015/16 consumption remains at 9.42 million metric tons. Looking to 2016/17, industrial consumption is expected to grow to 3.5 million metric tons, led by biodiesel. Food consumption will rise from 5.7 to 5.8 million metric tons, reflecting population growth. Total consumption is therefore expected to reach 9.62 million metric tons.

Trade

Export estimates for 2015/16 remain unchanged at 24 million metric tons. Advance trade data shows a 16 percent month-on-month decline from December to January, but 20 percent higher than shipments from January 2015. Likewise, first quarter shipments are on pace to reach 24 million metric tons.

Soybean-palm oil price spreads have remained stable, leading to consistent palm oil shipments to date. Spreads fell to $91/ton in February 2016, a decline from $128/ton in January. Post notes that the decline reflects a seasonal pattern, and that there is no indication Indonesian palm oil exports will decline.

Looking to 2016/17, Post expects exports to remain at 24 million metric tons. Industry sources report that projected consumption growth, fueled by the implementation of the palm oil levy and Indonesia's domestic biodiesel program consumption will draw down available supplies for export. Supplies will be further diminished by production, which although at record highs, has been diminished due to the El Nino Phenomenon experienced in 2015. Stocks, which have been drawn down from highs following the implementation of the levy and biodiesel program are also expected to dwindle, thus providing little support for the expansion of exports.

Stocks

2015/16 ending stocks are revised up from 500 to 506 thousand metric tons following revisions of 2014/15 stocks reflecting final data. 2016/17 ending stocks are expected to continue to decline, following consumption growth due to Indonesia's biodiesel program. Industry sources report that since the implementation of the biodiesel program in fall 2015, CPO stocks started to decline. All sources indicate that as long as biodiesel consumption remains robust, stocks are unlikely to rebound. It is also possible that if palm oil production rebounds faster than expected from 2015's El Nino phenomenon, stocks may grow slightly.

Oil, Palm

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

8540

8540

8965

8965

0

9200

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

1546

1546

1626

926

0

506

Production

33000

33000

33000

33000

0

33500

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

34546

34546

34626

33926

0

34006

MY Exports

25300

25800

24500

24000

0

24000

MY Exp. to EU

3800

3800

3500

3500

0

3500

Industrial Dom. Cons.

2000

2000

2900

3400

0

3500

Food Use Dom. Cons.

5300

5500

5400

5700

0

5800

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

320

320

320

320

0

320

Total Dom. Cons.

7620

7820

8620

9420

0

9620

Ending Stocks

1626

926

1506

506

0

386

Total Distribution

34546

34546

34626

33926

0

34006

(1000 HA) ,(1000 TREES) ,(1000 MT)

Oilseed, Palm Kernel

Production

Palm kernel production is derived from CPO production. Based on CPO estimates, Post expects that fresh fruit bunch production will reach 146 million metric tons in 2015/16 and 148 million metric tons in 2016/17. Assuming that palm kernel comprises six percent of fresh fruit bunch weight, palm kernel production will reach 8.7 million metric tons in 2015/16 and 8.8 million metric tons in 2016/17.

Consumption

Palm kernel is primarily processed into palm kernel oil and meal. Post expects that 8.65 million metric tons of will be crushed for oil in 2015/16 and 8.75 million metric tons in in 2016/17. Post notes that crush will increase slightly in 2015/16 over 2014/15 despite unchanging year-on-year production. Post notes that the increase is due to the growth of palm kernel consumption in industrial and other non-food applications.

Trade

Trade data indicates that small shipments of palm kernel were sent to Malaysia for further processing in 2014/15. Post expects that 2015/16 and 2016/17 will remain near zero, with exports at 1000 metric tons in 2015/16 and zero in 2016/17.

Stocks

Indonesian palm kernel ending stocks will decline slightly in 2015/16 and 2016/17, as production growth is expected to be limited compared to the gradual increases expected in palm kernel consumption. 2015/16 is expected to decline to 64 thousand tons compared to 80 in the previous year, and 49 thousand metric tons in 2016/17.

Oilseed, Palm Kernel

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

8540

8540

8965

8965

0

9200

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

70

70

50

80

0

64

Production

8700

8700

8700

8700

0

8800

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

8770

8770

8750

8780

0

8864

MY Exports

6

6

5

1

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

8650

8620

8650

8650

0

8750

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

64

64

65

65

0

65

Total Dom. Cons.

8714

8684

8715

8715

0

8815

Ending Stocks

50

80

30

64

0

49

Total Distribution

8770

8770

8750

8780

0

8864

(1000 HA) ,(1000 TREES) ,(1000 MT)

Oil, Palm Kernel

Production

Palm kernel oil production is expected to reach 3.75 million metric tons in 2015/16 and 3.8 million metric tons in 2016/17, assuming that Indonesia crushes 8.65 and 8.75 million metric tons of palm kernels in each respective marketing year.

Consumption

Palm kernel oil is primarily consumed for oleo-chemical applications, most commonly in the form of refined, bleached and deodorized palm kernel olein and stearin. Based on the expansion of the oleo-chemical industry, Post expects industrial consumption to reach 1.82 million metric tons in 2015/16 and 1.85 million metric tons in 2016/17. Domestic consumption growth is partly attributable to the palm export levy, which adds to export prices, thus favoring domestic consumption.

Trade

Post expects palm kernel oil exports will be slightly reduced by the implementation of the palm oil levy, increasing the cost of palm kernel oil exports and thus adding a slight boost to domestic consumption. Thus, palm kernel oil exports are estimated at 1.7 million metric tons in 2015/16 and 2016/17.

Stocks

Ending stocks, like crude palm oil, are expected to decline as production stagnates and consumption rises. Ending stocks are thus expected to drop to 89,000 metric tons in 2015/16 and 9000 metric tons in 2016/17.

Oil, Palm Kernel

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

8650

0

8650

0

0

0

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.437

0

0.437

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

350

350

229

179

0

89

Production

3780

3709

3780

3750

0

3800

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4130

4059

4009

3929

0

3889

MY Exports

1791

1770

1650

1700

0

1700

MY Exp. to EU

300

300

320

300

0

300

Industrial Dom. Cons.

1820

1800

1850

1820

0

1850

Food Use Dom. Cons.

290

310

300

320

0

330

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

2110

2110

2150

2140

0

2180

Ending Stocks

229

179

209

89

0

9

Total Distribution

4130

4059

4009

3929

0

3889

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Meal, Palm Kernel

Production

Palm kernel meal is estimated to reach 4.55 million metric tons in 2015/16 and 4.65 million metric tons in 2016/17 based on palm kernel production estimates and palm kernel oil estimates. Estimates assume that palm kernel crush yields 53 percent meal and four percent waste.

Consumption

Palm kernel meal consumption is expected to grow as livestock feed demand also continues to grow. Post thus sets palm kernel meal feed consumption at 610,000 metric tons in 2015/16 and 620,000 metric tons in 2016/17. Post notes that consumption is limited to Indonesia's cattle sector, which is geographically isolated from palm kernel meal production areas. As a result, palm kernel meal costs are less competitive among cattle owners, many of whom are smallholders.

Trade

Due to limited domestic use, a large portion of Indonesian palm kernel meal is exported. Post estimates palm kernel meal exports will reach four million metric tons in 2015/16 and 4.1 million metric tons in 2016/17.

Stocks

Post expects palm kernel meal ending stocks to decline, following the same trend as other palm kernel products. Post notes stagnant CPO production in 2015/16, as well as palm kernel meal exports as the main catalysts for declining stocks. As a result, palm kernel meal is expected to decline 182 thousand metric tons in 2015/16 and 112 thousand metric tons in 2016/17.

Meal, Palm Kernel

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

8650

0

8650

0

0

0

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.526

0

0.526

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

202

202

232

242

0

182

Production

4550

4600

4550

4550

0

4650

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4752

4802

4782

4792

0

4832

MY Exports

3950

3960

3950

4000

0

4100

MY Exp. to EU

1650

1535

1650

1500

0

1500

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

570

600

630

610

0

620

Total Dom. Cons.

570

600

630

610

0

620

Ending Stocks

232

242

202

182

0

112

Total Distribution

4752

4802

4782

4792

0

4832

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Oilseed, Soybeans

Production

2015/16 soybean production is expected to decline back to 600,000 metric tons, as Indonesian farmers recover from El Nino conditions. Assuming a return to normal weather conditions, farmers will plant corn and rice in place of soybean. There is potential, however for some additional soybean plantings. Post analysis indicates a potential for increased soybean planting in June-August 2016 due to delayed planting in late 2015. Rice and corn plantings were held back by several weeks in some areas following rain delays due to the 2015 El Nino. It is possible that some regions may experience delayed harvests, limiting plantings for June-September harvest. If this occurs, some farmers may opt to plant short duration soy. Potential soy increases are expected to be nominal, however, unlikely to exceed the magnitude of increases seen in 2014/15.

Post forecasts 2016/17 soybean production to remain stable at 600,000 metric tons. Despite Indonesia's emphasis on soybean self-sufficiency and efforts to grow production, Post has yet to observe any changes that would indicate production growth. Low yields and limited profitability from soybeans imply that Indonesian farmers will continue to plant rice or corn.

Consumption

Indonesian soybean consumption is dominated by human use. U.S. soybeans are preferred in Indonesia due to their uniform size, color and suitability for tempeh and tofu manufacturing. Post expects that tempeh and tofu will remain a preferred protein source in Indonesia, especially when considering the rising costs of substitute animal proteins. Post's total soybean consumption estimate therefore remains unchained at 2.87 million metric tons 2015/16.

Looking to 2016/17, consumption patterns are not expected to change. Considering population growth, Post estimates that consumption will grow to 2.9 million metric tons. Despite rising incomes and a growing middle class, tempeh remains very cost competitive and maintains a popular place in Indonesian diets across social classes.

Trade

Indonesia imports approximately 75 percent of its soybean requirement, the majority originating in the United States. Global supplies of the oilseed remain high, implying continued low prices and availability to importers. Post expects this scenario to remain unchanged.

Indonesian Soybean Imports, Reported by Exporters

2014/15

2015/16

October

59,687

86,908

November

253,089

216,043

December

247,938

120,276

January

165,530

158,560

February

256,607

March

277,139

April

156,785

May

142,278

June

171,108

July

90,883

August

117,417

September

173,118

Oct-Jan Total

726,244

581,787

Total

2,111,579

581,787

Recent policy changes have transferred import authority for corn to the Indonesian state-owned enterprise, BULOG. Under this arrangement, BULOG maintains ownership of most imported corn in Indonesia, while private importers act as import agents for BULOG. Although there is discussion that BULOG may apply a similar policy to soybeans, Post believes that such a policy, if implemented, would have little influence on the overall quantity of imported soybean. Post notes that previous efforts to curtail soybean imports have been relatively ineffective, as demand far outweighs local production capacity. As a result, post maintains its import estimate at 2.2 million metric tons for 2015/16, noting that first quarter imports are on pace to achieve this level. 2016/17 imports are set at 2.35 million metric tons, reflecting the consistent demand of a growing population.

Stocks

2014/15 ending stocks are revised from 185,000 to 149,000 metric tons, based on final data. 2015/16 ending stocks are also reduced slightly, based on lower beginning stocks and low levels of reported exports. 2016/17 ending stocks are estimated at 66,000 metric tons.

Oilseed, Soybean

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

460

500

450

500

0

500

Area Harvested

460

450

450

450

0

450

Beginning Stocks

192

192

59

149

0

46

Production

630

630

620

600

0

600

MY Imports

2000

2110

2300

2200

0

2350

MY Imp. from U.S.

1900

2000

2200

2000

0

2000

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2822

2932

2979

2949

0

2996

MY Exports

3

3

0

3

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

2725

2750

2870

2870

0

2900

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

35

30

40

30

0

30

Total Dom. Cons.

2760

2780

2910

2900

0

2930

Ending Stocks

59

149

69

46

0

66

Total Distribution

2822

2932

2979

2949

0

2996

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)

Meal, Soybeans

Production

Indonesia does not have a soybean crushing industry, and relies entirely on imports to fulfill its soybean meal requirement.

Consumption

Indonesian soybean meal consumption is driven by the animal feed sector. This is broken down by poultry feed (83 percent), aquaculture (11 percent), and swine and cattle (6 percent).The Indonesian Feed Producers Association reports that feed production is expected to increase to 17.3 million metric tons in calendar year 2016. They further report that mills continue to expand operations, and are currently running at 70 to 80 percent of capacity. As a result, post expects to see soybean meal consumption grow by 8 percent in MY 2015/16 and 2016/17, tracking with the general growth of feed corn and poultry production. Post therefore estimates total consumption to reach 407,000 metric tons in 2015/16 and 439,000 metric tons in 2016/17.

Trade

Indonesian soybean meal consumption relies entirely on imports, as Indonesian has no domestic production. Post revises 2014/15 import data to 3.84 million metric tons, based on final trade data. 2015/16 is set at 4.1 million metric tons and 2016/17 is set at 4.3 million metric tons based on projected consumption, which estimates 8 percent increases year-on-year.

Stocks

Indonesian soybean stocks are expected to remain stable, between 500,000 and 600,000 metric tons. 2014/15 ending stocks are revised slightly to compensate for final import data.

Meal, Soybean

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct-15

Oct-15

Oct-16

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

0

0

0

0

0

0

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

481

481

231

559

0

589

Production

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imports

3850

3844

4500

4100

0

4300

MY Imp. from U.S.

100

100

110

110

0

110

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

4331

4325

4731

4659

0

4789

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

4100

3766

4450

4070

0

4390

Total Dom. Cons.

4100

3766

4450

4070

0

4390

Ending Stocks

231

559

281

589

0

499

Total Distribution

4331

4325

4731

4659

0

4789

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Oilseed, Copra

Production

Coconut production continues its decline. The sector is highlighted by aging plantations, falling yields, and low profitability. Indonesia's National Statistical Agency (BPS) continues to report declining area planted to coconut. Additionally, there are few programs oriented at improving coconut productivity, with the Government of Indonesia remaining focused on expanding rice, corn and soybean production. This is compounded by the fact that coconut plantations are primarily owned and operated by smallholders, many of whom lack the financial means to replant aging plantations. Based on these factors, Post expects copra production to fall to 1.59 million metric tons in MY 2015/16 and 1.58 million metric tons in MY 2016/17

Consumption

The Indonesian copra sector uses 45 to 47 percent of total national coconut production. Around 97 percent of total annual copra is processed into crude coconut oil, while palm sugar and fresh-in-shell coconut are the major non-copra uses of coconuts. Post expects that copra mills will process 1.53 MMT of copra in MY 2015/16 and 1.52 MMT in MY 2016/17.

Trade

Indonesian copra exports are low, reaching about three percent of total production. Exports are stagnant, as most local production is processed locally. As a result, exports are expected to remain at 50,000 metric tons in 2015/16 and 2016/17.

Stocks

Ending stocks remain low and stable, at 17,000 metric tons in 2015/16 and 22,000 metric tons in 2016/17.

Oilseed, Copra

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

3800

3800

3800

3780

0

3760

Trees

0

0

0

0

0

0

Beginning Stocks

8

8

10

12

0

17

Production

1600

1600

1600

1590

0

1580

MY Imports

1

1

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1609

1609

1610

1602

0

1597

MY Exports

50

52

30

50

0

50

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

1545

1540

1570

1530

0

1520

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

4

5

4

5

0

5

Total Dom. Cons.

1549

1545

1574

1535

0

1525

Ending Stocks

10

12

6

17

0

22

Total Distribution

1609

1609

1610

1602

0

1597

(1000 HA) ,(1000 TREES) ,(1000 MT)

Oil, coconut

Production

Indonesia's coconut oil sector consumes approximately 97 percent of Indonesia's total copra production. Assuming that more than 1.5 million metric tons of copra will be crushed in 2015/16 and 2016/17, coconut oil production is expected to reach 970,000 metric tons in 2015/16 and 960,000 metric tons in 2016/17.

Consumption

Limited amounts of coconut oil are used for food and industrial consumption in Indonesia, as low cost palm oil products are readily available. Industrial users primarily process coconut oil into higher value added oleo products. Post thus expects that total consumption will grow to 235,000 metric tons in 2015/16 and 240,000 metric tons 2016/17.

Trade

Indonesia typically exports a large portion of its coconut oil production. Exports are expected to decline slightly in 2015/16 and 2016/17 due to lower cost palm kernel oil, which competes with coconut oil in the oleo-chemical sector. As a result, coconut oil exports will reach 750,000 metric tons in 2015/16 and 720,000 metric tons in 2016/17.

Stocks

Post expects ending stocks to decline to 5,000 metric tons in MY 2015/16 and MY 2016/17. Post attributes the decline in stocks to falling production and firm demand for the coconut oil from the oleo-chemical sector.

Oil, Coconut

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct-15

Oct-16

Oct-17

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

1545

1540

1570

1530

0

1520

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.6343

0.6312

0.6331

0.6340

0

0.6316

Beginning Stocks

53

53

48

20

0

5

Production

980

972

994

970

0

960

MY Imports

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1033

1025

1042

990

0

965

MY Exports

765

775

700

750

0

720

MY Exp. to EU

150

150

150

150

0

150

Industrial Dom. Cons.

120

120

190

125

0

130

Food Use Dom. Cons.

100

110

100

110

0

110

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Dom. Cons.

220

230

290

235

0

240

Ending Stocks

48

20

52

5

0

5

Total Distribution

1033

1025

1042

990

0

965

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Meal, Copra

Production

Based on copra crush and coconut oil production, Indonesia is expected to produce 515,000 MT of copra meal in 2015/16 and 510,000 in MY 2016/17. Declines in meal production keep pace with declines in coconut production.

Consumption

Copra meal is primarily used as a feed ingredient. Copra meal consumption is expected to rise to 205,000 MT in MY 2015/16 and 210,000 MT in 2016/17, following the general trend of animal feed production growth in Indonesia.

Trade

2015/16 exports are revised up from last year's estimate of 250,000 metric tons based on trade data indicating stronger than previously expected exports. 2016/17 copra meal exports are set at 310,000 metric tons, in line with 2015/16 performance.

Stocks

2015/16 copra meal ending stocks are revised downward, following the increase in exports. Stocks are thus set at 18,000 metric tons in 2015/16 and 9,000 metric tons in 2016/17.

Meal, Copra

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct-14

Oct-15

Oct-16

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Crush

1545

1540

1570

1530

0

1520

Extr. Rate, 999.9999

0.3301

0.3377

0.3248

0.3366

0

0.3355

Beginning Stocks

4

4

5

17

0

18

Production

510

520

510

515

0

510

MY Imports

1

1

1

1

0

1

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

515

525

516

533

0

529

MY Exports

315

308

230

310

0

310

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Industrial Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Food Use Dom. Cons.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

195

200

280

205

0

210

Total Dom. Cons.

195

200

280

205

0

210

Ending Stocks

5

17

6

18

0

9

Total Distribution

515

525

516

533

0

529

(1000 MT) ,(PERCENT)

Oilseed, Peanut

Production

Indonesian peanut production is expected to decline due to government emphasis on alternate crops (rice, corn, and soy), crop land conversions to non-agricultural uses, and higher returns from alternate crops. As a result, production is set at 1.13 million metric tons in 2015/16 and 1.125 in 2016/17.

Consumption

Peanut consumption is divided into household, home industry and large scale industry consumers, with the vast majority being consumed by home based industries (81 percent). Post notes that despite growth in the snack foods industry, overall consumption is stagnant. Another exception is the livestock feed sector, which has increased consumption of peanuts as alternate ingredient prices have risen. Peanut oil consumption in Indonesia is generally low due to lower cost alternatives such as palm and coconut oil. Based on these factors, post expects the crush level to remain unchanged at 50 thousand metric tons in 2015/16 and 2016/17. Food use declines will be offset by slight increases in feed consumption, leaving total consumption estimates stable at 1.395 million metric tons in 2015/16 and 2016/17.

Trade

Assuming stagnant peanut consumption, peanut imports are expected to remain unchanged or decline slightly. Post's 2015/16 import estimate is therefore revised slightly to 250,000 metric tons. 2016/17 import estimates are also estimated at 250,000 metric tons.

Stocks

Post expects Indonesia peanut ending stocks will drop from 80,000 MT in MY 2015/16 to 50,000 MT in MY 2016/17, as the result of declining production and stagnant imports.

Oilseed, Peanut

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Indonesia

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Planted

0

0

0

0

0

0

Area Harvested

630

630

615

615

0

610

Beginning Stocks

80

80

13

100

0

80

Production

1150

1150

1130

1130

0

1125

MY Imports

225

275

350

250

0

250

MY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

MY Imp. from EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1455

1505

1493

1480

0

1455

MY Exports

7

5

7

5

0

5

MY Exp. to EU

0

0

0

0

0

0

Crush

65

50

65

50

0

50

Food Use Dom. Cons.

1330

1250

1360

1240

0

1235

Feed Waste Dom. Cons.

40

100

47

105

0

110

Total Dom. Cons.

1435

1400

1472

1395

0

1395

Ending Stocks

13

100

14

80

0

55

Total Distribution

1455

1505

1493

1480

0

1455

(1000 HA) ,(1000 MT)