Malaysia's 2016/17 palm oil production is forecast to increase to 21 MMT from 19.5 MMT in 2015/16 May 1, 2016

Report Highlights:

Palm oil production is forecast to drop from 19.8 million tons in 2014/15 to a low of 19.5 million tons in 2015/16 as there were long periods of dry weather which affected the major palm producing states of Sabah and Johore in mid-2015 and expectation that it would last till mid-2016. In addition, replanting incentives for plantation companies, tree stress, disease problems and varying agronomic practices hindered production growth in 2015/16 and beyond. Exports of U.S. soybeans are forecast to drop slightly from 294,000 tons in 2014/15 to 290,000 tons in 2015/16 and remain stagnant in 2016/17.

Executive Summary:

U.S exports of soybeans to Malaysia are forecast to drop slightly to 290,000 tons in 2015/16 and remain stagnant in 2016/17. Total imports, however, increased slightly from 643,000 tons in 2014/15 to 650,000 tons in 2015/16 and to 653,000 tons in 2016/17. This in line with projected population growth of 1.3 percent annually from year 2010 to 2016 and thereafter projected at 1.2 percent till 2020. The U.S. remains the largest supplier of soybeans to Malaysia; whereas, for soybean meal, Argentina has over 95 percent market share.

Long dry weather affecting the states of Sabah and Johore throughout 2015 expected to last till mid-2016, caused production for 2015/16 to be low and forecasted at 19.5 million tons. This is consistent during the event of El-Nino, whereby in 1997/98, production dropped as low as 5.5 %. In addition, the introduction of a replanting program for plantation companies in October 2015, tree stress, disease problem and varying agronomics practices especially in pesticide usage and fertilizer contributed to low production for year 2015/16. Steep depreciation of Malaysian currency saw drastic increase in imported fertilizer prices, leading most smallholders to reduce use. As a result, lower yields are expected to mean lower production of 19.5 million tons, a drop of 3% from year 2014/15 production of 19.8 million tons. Palm oil output, however, is forecast to rebound to 21.0 million tons in 2016/17 due to favorable weather patterns for the year.

Palm oil exports are expected to stagnate and forecasted at 17.4 million tons, in 2015/16, due to stiff competition from Indonesia and other edible oils. China, India and Pakistan remain major export markets for Malaysia's palm oil. Exports to the United States run1.0 million tons valued at US$250 million annually.

OILSEEDS

Soybean

There is no commercial cultivation of soybeans in Malaysia.

Imports

Imports of soybean are projected to increase slightly to 650,000 tons in 2015/16 from 643,000 tons, valued at US$307 million in 2014/15, in line with the projected slight increase in demand for swine and poultry feed, and also a slight increase in soy for direct human consumption. The U.S remains the top supplier of soybean commanding 44 percent of market share. Paraguay, Canada and Brazil are the other major suppliers to Malaysia. Depreciation of Malaysia currency increased the price of imported soybean and squeezed small margins of swine and poultry farmers, thus limiting the growth of the industry.

Consumption

Soybean crushing activity is growing in line with slow growth in the poultry industry. In 2015/16, crushing activity was at 450,000 tons and forecast to slightly increase to 455,000 tons in 2016/17. Most of soybeans imported are for crushing to produce oil and meal for local consumption in poultry industry. Human consumption only accounts for 25 percent and imported from Canada for the production of soy drinks and a local delicacy called “tempe" (a fermented soybean cake).

Trade Policy & Market Access

A labeling requirement for GE content went into effect in July 2014, but it has not been enforced yet. Under the GE labeling requirement, products that contain less than 3 percent GE content, and highly refined processed foods and meat from animals fed with GE grains are exempt from the GE labeling requirement.

Beginning in 2015, the Malaysian Department of Agriculture and the Agriculture and Quarantine Inspection Service began to require that soybean importers obtain an import permit and that a phytosanitary certificate accompany all consignments. These new requirements did not cause any disruptions in U.S. soybean imports.

Soybean imports

Copra

Copra production in Malaysia continues to decline as it isn't profitable vis-à-vis alternative uses for land. Although there is some coconut plantation replanting, the new trees are for production of coconut juice rather than for desiccated coconut or coconut cream.

OILMEALS

Soybean Meal

Production and Imports

In tandem with steady growth in population, meal imports are expected to moderately increase. Imports forecast at 1.5 million tons in 2015/16 and will slightly increase to 1.51 million tons in 2016/17. In 2014/15, soybean meal imports were 1.45 million tons valued at US$684 million. Argentina remains the dominant supplier of soybean meal controlling 95% of total Malaysia's import.

Consumption

As demand for poultry and swine products remains firm and as a function of population growth, soybean meal consumption is forecast to increase marginally at 3 percent in 2015/16 and at 0.6 percent in 2016/17.

Soybean meal imports

Palm Kernel Meal

Palm kernel meal production is expected to increase in 2016/17, from 2.67 million tons in 2015/16 to 2.88 million tons in 2016/17. As palm kernel meal commands a higher price in overseas markets, most of the production goes to New Zealand and the EU. Around 10 percent is consumed domestically.

OILS

Palm Oil

Palm oil production for the period of October to December 2015 and January 2016 show a huge drop of 14.5% from 7.27 million tons recorded from October to December 2014 and January 2015 to 6.21 million tons from October to December 2015 and January 2016. This huge drop is consistent with El Nino weather conditions recorded in mid-2015 and expected to last till mid-2016. Tree stress, replanting program for plantation companies, disease problems and varying agronomic practices were other factors that hindered production growth in 2015/16. Production is expected to recover to 21.0 million tons in 2016/17. Depreciation of Malaysian currency makes imported fertilizer cost more and forces plantation companies and small holders to reduce usage, thus reducing yield and production of palm oil.

Palm planted area is expected to expand to 6.0 million hectares in 2016/17 (which include replanted plantation and new plantation areas with 0 - 3 year old palm trees that are yet to produce any fruits ) with expansion mainly in East Malaysia, area harvested increased to 4.9 million hectares (area with palm trees that producing fruit at least once or twice a year) while fully matured hectare equivalent (MHE) area, plantation with palm trees that producing fruits at least 4 times a year, is estimated at 2.75 million hectares. Yields are expected to drop in 2015/16 due to adverse weather condition and will rebound in 2016/17 as the weather improves in line with increases in mature hectare equivalent (MHE). Consequently, output is forecast to grow to 21.0 million tons.

The following MHE/yield table is based on the October/September marketing year:

Trade

For the year 2015/16, Malaysia's palm oil exports are forecasted to stagnate at 17.4 million tons and to increase to 18 million tons in 2016/17. The drop in 2015/16 exports are attributed to stiff competition from Indonesia and other competing vegetable oils. In addition low production forecasted in 2015/16, are expected to increase the price of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) and reduce the margin factor between the price of CPO and Soy Oil, thus making the price of Soy Oil competitive compared to Palm Oil.

Trade Policy

No export tax has been imposed since May 2015 to March 2016. Malaysia has raised its crude palm oil export duty to 5% for April and May.

Palm Kernel Oil

Production of Palm Kernel Oil (PKO) is expected to stagnate at 2.3 million tons in 2015/16 and forecasted to increase to 2.5 million tons or 8.4% in 2016/17. PKO exports are expected to remain at 1.05 million tons in 2015/16 and forecast to rebound to 1.1 million tons or 4.7% in 2016/17. The main destinations are the United States, Singapore, Egypt, Australia, Russia and China.

Coconut Oil

Total coconut oil imports for 2015/16, is projected at 150,000 tons. Most of the imports are further refined and re-export to third countries, namely Singapore, Ukraine and Australia with exports forecast at 128,000 tons in 2015/16. Coconut oil accounts for less than 1 percent of local consumption.