Pakistan's 2016/17 vegetable oil imports are forecast to be a record 3.3 MMT, up 9.6% y/y May 29, 2016

Report Highlights:

Pakistan's MY 2016/17 vegetable oil imports are forecast to be a record 3.3 million metric tons, up 9.6 percent from a year ago. Palm oil continues to be the major imported oil accounting for 95 percent of imports. Soybean oil imports are expected to increase to 300,000 MT in MY 2016/17. Given a duty structure that favors soybean imports over soybean meal and the poultry industry's rising inclusion of soybean meal in its feed rations, MY 2016/17 soybean imports are projected at a record 2.0 million metric tons. Cottonseed continues to be Pakistan's largest domestically produced oilseed and is expected to reach 3.9 million metric tons in 2016/17. In general, all signs point to continued growth in demand for products with the oilseed complex. Growing and modernizing poultry, dairy, and possibly beef sectors suggest that demand for oilseed meals will grow and rising Gross Domestic Product bodes well for slow but steady growth in the consumption of vegetable oils.

OILSEED

Production:

Marketing year (MY) 2016/17 (Oct-Sep) oilseed production is forecast at 4.3 million metric tons (MMT) up 27 percent from the current marketing year due to projected increase especially in cottonseed production. Current year's cottonseed production is estimated at3.0 MMT, down 34 percent from the last year's production and the lowest level since 1998. While Pakistan is a significant importer of products within the oilseed complex, production of all oilseeds except cottonseed is minimal. Winter or “Rabi" oilseeds like rapeseed and sunflower suffer from competition from wheat. Wheat farmers enjoy a guaranteed support price for the portion of their crop that is marketed to the public sector and for those who consume their wheat on-farm or in the village (about half of the wheat crop) wheat is seen as a staple and life-sustaining crop. Sunflower can also be produced during the Kharif or summer season but corn, rice, and sugarcane are generally deemed more remunerative. Declining global oilseed prices are expected to prompt farmers to reduce area even further in 2016/17 as farmers opt for the price-supported wheat that is now priced significantly higher than the international wheat market, a price differential that is expected to hold based on current futures prices. While there have been attempts at producing soybeans, the crop has failed to catch on due to the harsh summer conditions and a lack of planting seeds, despite a growing poultry and dairy sectors.

Cottonseed:

Cottonseed is the principal oilseed crop grown in Pakistan, accounting for 91 percent of domestic oilseed production. Cotton is a key cash crop and an important input for Pakistan's textile sector, a major contributor to the country's gross domestic product. MY 2015/16, cottonseed production is estimated (based on the official cotton production estimate) at 3.0 million tons, the lowest level since 1998. MY 2016/17 cottonseed production is forecast at 3.9 million tons, 29 percent higher over the current year's estimate. The province of Punjab accounts for about 75 percent of cotton production, while the province of Sindh contributes the balance of the crop.

Rapeseed:

Rapeseed is a winter or “Rabi" crop that is grown in Punjab and Sindh. MY 2016/17 area and production are forecast lower given the expectation that farmers will opt to plant wheat instead of rapeseed.

Sunflower seed

According to official figures, for the last couple of years, sunflower area and production is almost stagnant. MY 2016/17 area and production is not expected to change due to competition from wheat crop.

Consumption:

Oilseed consumption continues to play an important role within the overall oilseed complex. However, annual consumption levels will vary depending on changing import policies and competing prices for imported oil and meal. In general the trend in terms of demand for oilseed complex products is up as the poultry sector grows, segments of the dairy industry modernize, and investors consider modern beef production. Additionally, traditional Pakistani cooking uses large amounts of oil and consumption tends to increase as incomes improve, especially as consumers move into the middle class, a trend that continues as part of slow but steady growth in gross domestic product. Oilseed crush for MY 2016/17 is forecast at 6.45 MMT, up 29 percent from the last year's level mainly due to a record import of soybeans. Revisions to the 2014/15 and 2015/16 marketing years reflect the most recent data from the Solvent Extractors' Association. In general, the industry is in the process of upgrading its crushing capacity to improve both efficiency and quality.

Duty Structure on Edible Oil, SBM and Oilseeds

(Figures in Pak. Rupees)

RBDPO: Refined Bleached Deodorized Palm Oil

CPO: Crude Palm Oil

CDSBO: Crude Deodorized Soybean Oil

SBM: Soybean Meal

Trade:

Pakistan augments its domestic oilseed production with imports. Pakistan's tariff structure is designed to facilitate oilseed imports through reduced tariffs and fees as a means of shifting value addition to the domestic industry. Tariffs on rapeseed, canola, and sunflower seed have been lower than vegetable oil tariffs since 2005. In July of 2015, the tariff on soybeans was dropped to three percent while the tariff on soybean meal, which was increased in July of 2014, was left at 11 percent, making soybean imports potentially more attractive compared to meal imports. Oilseed imports are driven by demand for both oil and meal along with crushing margins. Landed prices plus tariffs play a significant role in determining the import mix between seeds, oil, and meal.

According to data provided by the All Pakistan Solvent Extractors' Association (APSEA) oilseed imports during 2014/15 were 1.5 MMT and 2015/16 imports are on pace to reach 1.95 MMT which may be a record based on a cursory review of historical data. Pakistan imported 538,000 MT of soybeans during MY 2014/15, of which 315,000 MT was imported from the United States. Importers are gradually shifting away from Indian soymeal to take advantage of competitively-priced soybeans from other countries. Rapeseed and canola used to be the dominant oilseed imports; however, imports are expected to drop to 650,000 MT in 2015/16 as imports of soybeans are expected to jump to 1.3 MMT given the current tariff structure. Soybean imports during MY 2016/17 are projected to reach to a record 2.0 MMT. Total oilseed imports for 2016/17 are forecast at 2.5 MMT.

Policy:

In an attempt to address food security concerns, Pakistan's agricultural policy is largely focused on the enhancement of wheat production; principally through a support price mechanism at which the government purchases that guarantees a minimum wheat price. The government procures about half of the wheat crop that is marketed off-farm, which is generally sufficient to create a price floor in the market for wheat. As most oilseeds are Rabi or winter crops, farmers tend to opt for wheat over oilseeds. For sunflower and soybeans, two crops that could be produced during the Kharif or summer season, farmers tend to view cotton, rice, and sugarcane as more remunerative options.

In an effort to curb expenditures on imports, and enhance local oilseed production, the Pakistan Oilseed Development Board (PODB) was established in 1995. PODB's efforts have not resulted in farmers opting to plant oilseeds on a large scale. With no support price mechanism to compete with wheat, and a lack of funding to improve research, seed quality and technology are key constraints that deter farmers. Additionally, the domestic crushing industry is content to process imported seeds, provided tariffs are favorable, in lieu of taking steps to incentivize farmers to produce oilseeds.

Pakistan does not currently restrict imports of biotech oilseeds or products derived from biotech oilseeds. Nearly all of Pakistan's cottonseed oil and meal are derived from biotech cotton and products such as soybeans and canola and their products are regularly imported from countries where biotech versions of these crops are widely grown.

MEAL

Production:

MY 2016/17 oilseed meal production is forecast at 3.7 MMT, up 32 percent from MY 2015/16 mainly due to the anticipated increase in soybean imports. The share of local oilseed meal has decreased considerably due to shrinking area and production of oilseed crops. The supply of soybean meal is forecast to surpass cottonseed meal based on the favorable duty structure and rising demand for soybean meal from the poultry industry. Larger carry-in stocks will help to augment the lower production. Cottonseed meal is by far the dominant local meal, accounting for about 90 percent of total production. Changes in 2014/15 production estimates reflect final estimates from the Pakistan Solvent Extractors' Association.

Consumption:

MY 2016/17 oilseed meal requirements are forecast to increase to 4.1 MMT, about 380,000 MT above the revised 2015/16 estimate. Demand for oilseed meals is expected to grow due to the anticipated expansion of the poultry, livestock, and aquaculture sectors. Pakistan's poultry meat production is expected to grow by more than 10 percent annually and poultry producers are rapidly increasing their meal inclusion rates in poultry feeds; some are approaching the international standard of 35 percent. The layer industry is also expanding rapidly as it is able to provide a relatively cheap protein source. Several poultry feed manufacturers have started producing dairy feed to meet the needs of Pakistan's more progressive dairy farmers. The revised estimate for 2014/15 reflects final data from the Pakistan Solvent Extractor's Association.

Trade:

Pakistan's meal imports are comprised of soybean meal from Argentina, India and the United States of America. During MY 2014/15 Pakistan imported over a million tons of soybean meal, 73 percent of which was sourced from Argentina followed by India (22 percent) and the United States. Current year imports are expected to reach 700,000 MT and the forecast for MY 2016/17 is projected at 600,000MT. India has been the dominant supplier in the past, but importers have broadened their sourcing to other suppliers. Pricing has been a significant factor in the shift to other sources. While meal demand is growing, the increase in the soymeal tariff and the lower tariff on soybeans is limiting the growth in meal imports.

OIL

Production:

Pakistan produces about 20 percent of its vegetable oil needs domestically and 2016/17 production is forecast to increase from the revised 2014/15 and 2015/16 estimates that reflect official estimates.

Consumption:

MY 2016/17 total oil consumption is forecast at a record 4.47 MMT, up ten percent from the current marketing year. Palm oil dominates the imported vegetable oil market and is commonly blended with others and sold as cooking oil. For health reasons, well-to-do consumers are gradually shifting from hydrogenated oils to soft oils.

Trade:

Pakistan is a leading importer of vegetable oil. In MY 2016/17, total imports are forecast at 3.3 MMT, up 9.6 percent from the revised 2015/16 estimate. 2014/15 imports are estimated lower based on official data. Refined palm oil accounts for about 95 percent of Pakistan's total edible oil imports. Imports of soybean oil are expected to increase to 300,000 MT in MY 2016/17 as importers look to alternative supply sources based on pricing. Demand for imported oil is likely to continue to expand as lower income consumers who are moving up the economic ladder increase the amount of vegetable oil (a key component in Pakistani cooking) in their cooking. Per capita consumption is at 20 kg, but there is still room for growth as gross domestic product grows, albeit slowly.