Senegal milled rice production for 2015/16 increased 64% compared to the previous year / News / AgroChart

Report Highlights:

This report concerns only selected countries in West Africa. MY2015/16 milled rice production is expected to reach 5.9 mil lion tons, a 17 percent increase from last season production. Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, and Guinea are the major producers with 37 percent, 8 percent and 4 percent increase, respectively, compared to the previous year production. Senegal milled rice production for MY 2015/16 increased 64 percent compared to the previous year figure. MY 2015/16 rice imports may reach 3.9 million tons, an 8 percent increase compared to the past season. Post expects the total milled rice production in all the countries in MY 2016/17 to reach 6.4 million tons, a 7 percent increase.

Executive Summary

Milled rice production continues to increase in selected countries and is estimated at 5.9 million tons for MY 2015/16, a 17 percent increase from last season.

In MY 2015/16, Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal increased their production considerably, 37 percent and 64 percent, respectively due to continual investment in the sector, in alignment with their national rice production strategies.

For MY 2015/16, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, and Mali accounted for most of the increase with 79 percent of the total production.

All the countries combined intend to import 3.8 million tons in MY 2015/16, an 8 percent increase compared to the previous year.

Senegal and Cote d'Ivoire have made progress in their quest to reach self-sufficiency in rice, with a production increase of 37 percent for Cote d'Ivoire and 64 percent for Senegal in MY 2015/16.

Post projects that MY 2016/17 milled rice production to increase by 7.4 percent.

Data are based on country reports and Post estimates.

Production

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso MY 2015/16 milled rice production is estimated at 211,000 tons, a slight decrease (6.6 percent) from last season. Imports are estimated at 350,000 tons for MY 2015/16.

Area harvested reached 138.500 hectares representing 20 percent decrease compared to the previous year.

Besides the decrease of area harvested, other factors such as drought may explain the decline in rice production in Burkina Faso.

Post estimates MY 2016/17 milled rice production at 240, 000 tons.

Cote d'Ivoire

Cote d'Ivoire continues to increase milled rice production in alignment with the Government Revised National Rice Strategy (SNDR) 2012-2020 initiative, which aims to produce 2.0 million tons. For MY2015/16, milled rice production reached 1.8 million tons, a 37 percent increase from last season.

This production represents 31 percent increase compared to USDA official data. Post anticipates a production of 1.9 million tons for MY 2016/17.

Rice import remains stable with 1.2 million tons for MY 2015/16.

Mali

Mali milled rice production for MY 2015/16 increased 8 percent from last season to 1.5 million tons, but 5 percent less than USDA official data.

Area harvested is estimated at 725,000 ha in MY2015/16.

Post forecast MY 2016/17 rice production at 1.6 million tons.

Senegal

Senegal milled rice production increased considerably in MY 2015/16, representing 64 percent increase compared to last season and 53 percent increase compared to USDA official number.

Post estimates MY2016/17 milled rice production at 680,000 tons.

Consumption (including residual)

Post estimates MY 2015/16 rice consumption at 9.5 million tons, representing 10 percent increase over the previous production for selected countries. Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Senegal, and Guinea, are the major rice consumers.

Post expects rice consumption for MY 2016/17 to increase 6 percent (10.1 million tons).

Trade

MY 2015/16 rice import is estimated at 3.8 million tons, an 8 percent increase compared to MY 2014/15. Post believes that rice imports for MY 2016/17 will remain stable.

Cote d'Ivoire

Cote d'Ivoire rice import for calendar year 2015 reached 1.137 million tons, a 19 percent increase compared to the previous year. The top rice suppliers are Thailand (34 percent), India (25 percent), Vietnam (24 percent), and Pakistan (13 percent).

Senegal

Senegal rice import is estimated at 989, 000 tons for calendar year 2015, representing 3 percent increase compared to the previous year. The top rice suppliers are India (61 percent), Thailand (21 percent), and Pakistan (7 percent).

Countries	Production, Milled 1000 MT			Imports 1000 MT			Consumption 1000 MT
	2015	2016	2017	2015	2016	2017	2015	2016	2017
Burkina Faso	226	211	240	275	350	350	501	571	590
Chad	180	145	180	10	50	50	180	200	230
Cote d'Ivoire	1,340	1,836	1,950	952	1,140	1,100	2,340	2,832	3,150
Gambia	30	45	60	125	150	150	190	210	215
Guinea-Bissau	80	100	110	150	160	160	240	260	271
Guinea-Conakry	1,300	1,351	1,375	300	350	350	1,600	1,630	1,676
Mali	1,400	1,515	1,650	200	170	170	1,605	1,685	1,770
Niger	69	60	70	300	350	350	369	405	420
Senegal	380	623	680	1100	950	950	1,494	1,568	1,620
Togo	95	92	110	100	120	120	195	212	230
Total	5,100	5,978	6,425	3,512	3,790	3,750	8,714	9,573	10,172

Source: Country data from the CILSS meeting and FAS Dakar estimates

Note: Data for 2015, 2016, and 2017 correspond to the marketing year period (from Oct the previous year to Sept the following year), i.e., MY 2015/16 (Oct 2015-Sept 2016)

Policy

Cote d'Ivoire

Cote d'Ivoire national strategic plan 2012-2020 aims to reach self-sufficiency by producing 2.0 million tons of milled rice by 2020. It also expects to start exporting rice to the sub region.

Post believes that the Government of Cote d'Ivoire GOCI is on track to reaching self-sufficiency based on rice production increases (37 percent) from MY 2014/15 to MY 2015/16, assuming that trends continues.

Senegal

Senegal still continues to implement its national strategic plan (PRACAS) that aims to accelerate agriculture production in the country. It also aims to reach self-sufficiency in rice by producing one million ton of milled rice by 2017. Due to continual investment in agricultural equipment, Senegal produced 623,000 tons of rice in MY 2015/16.

Rice, Milled	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
Market Begin Year	Oct 2014		Oct 2015		Oct 2016
Senegal	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	135	135	155	236	0	260
Beginning Stocks	229	229	305	205	0	200
Milled Production	380	380	408	623	0	680
Rough Production	559	559	600	916	0	1000
Milling Rate (.9999)	6800	6800	6800	6800	0	6800
MY Imports	1200	1100	1000	950	0	950
TY Imports	1100	1250	1100	985	0	990
TY Imp. from U.S.	0	3	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	1809	1709	1713	1778	0	1830
MY Exports	10	10	10	10	0	10
TY Exports	10	10	10	10	0	10
Consumption and Residual	1494	1494	1500	1568	0	1620
Ending Stocks	305	205	203	200	0	200
Total Distribution	1809	1709	1713	1778	0	1830

Rice, Milled	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
Market Begin Year	Oct 2014		Oct 2015		Oct 2016
Cote d'Ivoire	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	1030	1030	1077	1400	0	1486
Beginning Stocks	206	206	476	446	0	500
Milled Production	1340	1340	1400	1836	0	1950
Rough Production	2062	2062	2154	2825	0	3000
Milling Rate (.9999)	6500	6500	6500	6500	0	6500
MY Imports	1300	1290	800	1200	0	1200
TY Imports	1100	950	800	1140	0	1100
TY Imp. from U.S.	0	14	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	2846	2836	2676	3482	0	3650
MY Exports	30	50	50	150	0	200
TY Exports	20	40	50	150	0	200
Consumption and Residual	2340	2340	2300	2832	0	3150
Ending Stocks	476	446	326	500	0	300
Total Distribution	2846	2836	2676	3482	0	3650

Rice, Milled	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
Market Begin Year	Oct 2014		Oct 2015		Oct 2016
Burkina	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	140	170	140	138	0	183
Beginning Stocks	20	20	26	20	0	10
Milled Production	226	226	235	211	0	240
Rough Production	348	348	362	325	0	369
Milling Rate (.9999)	6500	6500	6500	6500	0	6500
MY Imports	350	275	350	350	0	350
TY Imports	350	275	350	350	0	350
TY Imp. from U.S.	4	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	596	521	611	581	0	600
MY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
TY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
Consumption and Residual	570	501	590	571	0	590
Ending Stocks	26	20	21	10	0	10
Total Distribution	596	521	611	581	0	600

Rice, Milled	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
Market Begin Year	Oct 2014		Oct 2015		Oct 2016
Mali	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	684	684	743	725	0	750
Beginning Stocks	155	155	144	150	0	150
Milled Production	1409	1400	1593	1515	0	1650
Rough Production	2168	2154	2451	2331	0	2538
Milling Rate (.9999)	6500	6500	6500	6500	0	6500
MY Imports	180	200	130	170	0	170
TY Imports	180	200	130	170	0	170
TY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	1744	1755	1867	1835	0	1970
MY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
TY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
Consumption and Residual	1600	1605	1680	1685	0	1770
Ending Stocks	144	150	187	150	0	200
Total Distribution	1744	1755	1867	1835	0	1970

Rice, Milled	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
Market Begin Year	Oct 2014		Oct 2015		Oct 2016
Gambia, The	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	60	60	67	67	0	89
Beginning Stocks	35	35	0	15	0	5
Milled Production	10	30	35	45	0	60
Rough Production	15	46	54	69	0	92
Milling Rate (.9999)	6500	6500	6500	6500	0	6500
MY Imports	140	140	155	155	0	155
TY Imports	125	125	150	150	0	150
TY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	185	205	190	215	0	220
MY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
TY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
Consumption and Residual	185	190	185	210	0	215
Ending Stocks	0	15	5	5	0	5
Total Distribution	185	205	190	215	0	220

Rice, Milled	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
Market Begin Year	Oct 2014		Oct 2015		Oct 2016
Chad	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	0	250	0	235	0	250
Beginning Stocks	0	0	0	10	0	5
Milled Production	0	180	0	145	0	180
Rough Production	0	300	0	242	0	300
Milling Rate (.9999)	0	6000	0	6000	0	6000
MY Imports	0	10	0	50	0	50
TY Imports	0	10	0	50	0	50
TY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	0	190	0	205	0	235
MY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
TY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
Consumption and Residual	0	180	0	200	0	230
Ending Stocks	0	10	0	5	0	5
Total Distribution	0	190	0	205	0	235

Rice, Milled	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
Market Begin Year	Oct 2014		Oct 2015		Oct 2016
Guinea	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	1000	990	1000	1023	0	1040
Beginning Stocks	130	130	51	30	0	51
Milled Production	1301	1300	1320	1351	0	1375
Rough Production	1971	1970	2000	2047	0	2083
Milling Rate (.9999)	6600	6600	6600	6600	0	6600
MY Imports	300	300	350	350	0	350
TY Imports	300	300	350	350	0	350
TY Imp. from U.S.	3	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	1731	1730	1721	1731	0	1776
MY Exports	50	100	50	50	0	50
TY Exports	50	100	50	50	0	50
Consumption and Residual	1630	1600	1620	1630	0	1676
Ending Stocks	51	30	51	51	0	50
Total Distribution	1731	1730	1721	1731	0	1776

Rice, Milled	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
Market Begin Year	Oct 2014		Oct 2015		Oct 2016
Guinea-Bissau	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	86	86	107	107	0	115
Beginning Stocks	26	26	11	16	0	16
Milled Production	80	80	100	100	0	110
Rough Production	133	133	167	167	0	183
Milling Rate (.9999)	6000	6000	6000	6000	0	6000
MY Imports	160	150	160	160	0	160
TY Imports	160	150	160	160	0	160
TY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	266	256	271	276	0	286
MY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
TY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
Consumption and Residual	255	240	260	260	0	271
Ending Stocks	11	16	11	16	0	15
Total Distribution	266	256	271	276	0	286

Rice, Milled	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
Market Begin Year	Oct 2014		Oct 2015		Oct 2016
Niger	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	21	21	22	19	0	22
Beginning Stocks	0	0	0	0	0	5
Milled Production	69	69	70	60	0	70
Rough Production	106	106	108	92	0	108
Milling Rate (.9999)	6500	6500	6500	6500	0	6500
MY Imports	300	300	300	350	0	350
TY Imports	300	300	300	350	0	350
TY Imp. from U.S.	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	369	369	370	410	0	425
MY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
TY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
Consumption and Residual	369	369	370	405	0	420
Ending Stocks	0	0	0	5	0	5
Total Distribution	369	369	370	410	0	425

Rice, Milled	2014/2015		2015/2016		2016/2017
Market Begin Year	Oct 2014		Oct 2015		Oct 2016
Togo	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post	USDA Official	New Post
Area Harvested	49	49	51	48	0	55
Beginning Stocks	0	0	0	0	0	0
Milled Production	95	95	100	92	0	110
Rough Production	146	146	154	142	0	169
Milling Rate (.9999)	6500	6500	6500	6500	0	6500
MY Imports	100	100	100	120	0	120
TY Imports	100	100	100	120	0	120
TY Imp. from U.S.	1	0	0	0	0	0
Total Supply	195	195	200	212	0	230
MY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
TY Exports	0	0	0	0	0	0
Consumption and Residual	195	195	200	212	0	230
Ending Stocks	0	0	0	0	0	0
Total Distribution	195	195	200	212	0	230

Senegal milled rice production for 2015/16 increased 64% compared to the previous year June 2, 2016