Senegal milled rice production for 2015/16 increased 64% compared to the previous year June 2, 2016
Report Highlights:
This report concerns only selected countries in West Africa. MY2015/16 milled rice production is expected to reach 5.9 mil lion tons, a 17 percent increase from last season production. Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, and Guinea are the major producers with 37 percent, 8 percent and 4 percent increase, respectively, compared to the previous year production. Senegal milled rice production for MY 2015/16 increased 64 percent compared to the previous year figure. MY 2015/16 rice imports may reach 3.9 million tons, an 8 percent increase compared to the past season. Post expects the total milled rice production in all the countries in MY 2016/17 to reach 6.4 million tons, a 7 percent increase.
Executive Summary
Milled rice production continues to increase in selected countries and is estimated at 5.9 million tons for MY 2015/16, a 17 percent increase from last season.
In MY 2015/16, Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal increased their production considerably, 37 percent and 64 percent, respectively due to continual investment in the sector, in alignment with their national rice production strategies.
For MY 2015/16, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, and Mali accounted for most of the increase with 79 percent of the total production.
All the countries combined intend to import 3.8 million tons in MY 2015/16, an 8 percent increase compared to the previous year.
Senegal and Cote d'Ivoire have made progress in their quest to reach self-sufficiency in rice, with a production increase of 37 percent for Cote d'Ivoire and 64 percent for Senegal in MY 2015/16.
Post projects that MY 2016/17 milled rice production to increase by 7.4 percent.
Data are based on country reports and Post estimates.
Production
Burkina Faso
Burkina Faso MY 2015/16 milled rice production is estimated at 211,000 tons, a slight decrease (6.6 percent) from last season. Imports are estimated at 350,000 tons for MY 2015/16.
Area harvested reached 138.500 hectares representing 20 percent decrease compared to the previous year.
Besides the decrease of area harvested, other factors such as drought may explain the decline in rice production in Burkina Faso.
Post estimates MY 2016/17 milled rice production at 240, 000 tons.
Cote d'Ivoire
Cote d'Ivoire continues to increase milled rice production in alignment with the Government Revised National Rice Strategy (SNDR) 2012-2020 initiative, which aims to produce 2.0 million tons. For MY2015/16, milled rice production reached 1.8 million tons, a 37 percent increase from last season.
This production represents 31 percent increase compared to USDA official data. Post anticipates a production of 1.9 million tons for MY 2016/17.
Rice import remains stable with 1.2 million tons for MY 2015/16.
Mali
Mali milled rice production for MY 2015/16 increased 8 percent from last season to 1.5 million tons, but 5 percent less than USDA official data.
Area harvested is estimated at 725,000 ha in MY2015/16.
Post forecast MY 2016/17 rice production at 1.6 million tons.
Senegal
Senegal milled rice production increased considerably in MY 2015/16, representing 64 percent increase compared to last season and 53 percent increase compared to USDA official number.
Post estimates MY2016/17 milled rice production at 680,000 tons.
Consumption (including residual)
Post estimates MY 2015/16 rice consumption at 9.5 million tons, representing 10 percent increase over the previous production for selected countries. Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Senegal, and Guinea, are the major rice consumers.
Post expects rice consumption for MY 2016/17 to increase 6 percent (10.1 million tons).
Trade
MY 2015/16 rice import is estimated at 3.8 million tons, an 8 percent increase compared to MY 2014/15. Post believes that rice imports for MY 2016/17 will remain stable.
Cote d'Ivoire
Cote d'Ivoire rice import for calendar year 2015 reached 1.137 million tons, a 19 percent increase compared to the previous year. The top rice suppliers are Thailand (34 percent), India (25 percent), Vietnam (24 percent), and Pakistan (13 percent).
Senegal
Senegal rice import is estimated at 989, 000 tons for calendar year 2015, representing 3 percent increase compared to the previous year. The top rice suppliers are India (61 percent), Thailand (21 percent), and Pakistan (7 percent).
Countries | Production, Milled 1000 MT | Imports 1000 MT | Consumption 1000 MT | ||||||
2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
Burkina Faso | 226 | 211 | 240 | 275 | 350 | 350 | 501 | 571 | 590 |
Chad | 180 | 145 | 180 | 10 | 50 | 50 | 180 | 200 | 230 |
Cote d'Ivoire | 1,340 | 1,836 | 1,950 | 952 | 1,140 | 1,100 | 2,340 | 2,832 | 3,150 |
Gambia | 30 | 45 | 60 | 125 | 150 | 150 | 190 | 210 | 215 |
Guinea-Bissau | 80 | 100 | 110 | 150 | 160 | 160 | 240 | 260 | 271 |
Guinea-Conakry | 1,300 | 1,351 | 1,375 | 300 | 350 | 350 | 1,600 | 1,630 | 1,676 |
Mali | 1,400 | 1,515 | 1,650 | 200 | 170 | 170 | 1,605 | 1,685 | 1,770 |
Niger | 69 | 60 | 70 | 300 | 350 | 350 | 369 | 405 | 420 |
Senegal | 380 | 623 | 680 | 1100 | 950 | 950 | 1,494 | 1,568 | 1,620 |
Togo | 95 | 92 | 110 | 100 | 120 | 120 | 195 | 212 | 230 |
Total | 5,100 | 5,978 | 6,425 | 3,512 | 3,790 | 3,750 | 8,714 | 9,573 | 10,172 |
Source: Country data from the CILSS meeting and FAS Dakar estimates
Note: Data for 2015, 2016, and 2017 correspond to the marketing year period (from Oct the previous year to Sept the following year), i.e., MY 2015/16 (Oct 2015-Sept 2016)
Policy
Cote d'Ivoire
Cote d'Ivoire national strategic plan 2012-2020 aims to reach self-sufficiency by producing 2.0 million tons of milled rice by 2020. It also expects to start exporting rice to the sub region.
Post believes that the Government of Cote d'Ivoire GOCI is on track to reaching self-sufficiency based on rice production increases (37 percent) from MY 2014/15 to MY 2015/16, assuming that trends continues.
Senegal
Senegal still continues to implement its national strategic plan (PRACAS) that aims to accelerate agriculture production in the country. It also aims to reach self-sufficiency in rice by producing one million ton of milled rice by 2017. Due to continual investment in agricultural equipment, Senegal produced 623,000 tons of rice in MY 2015/16.
Rice, Milled | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
Senegal | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Harvested | 135 | 135 | 155 | 236 | 0 | 260 |
Beginning Stocks | 229 | 229 | 305 | 205 | 0 | 200 |
Milled Production | 380 | 380 | 408 | 623 | 0 | 680 |
Rough Production | 559 | 559 | 600 | 916 | 0 | 1000 |
Milling Rate (.9999) | 6800 | 6800 | 6800 | 6800 | 0 | 6800 |
MY Imports | 1200 | 1100 | 1000 | 950 | 0 | 950 |
TY Imports | 1100 | 1250 | 1100 | 985 | 0 | 990 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 1809 | 1709 | 1713 | 1778 | 0 | 1830 |
MY Exports | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
TY Exports | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
Consumption and Residual | 1494 | 1494 | 1500 | 1568 | 0 | 1620 |
Ending Stocks | 305 | 205 | 203 | 200 | 0 | 200 |
Total Distribution | 1809 | 1709 | 1713 | 1778 | 0 | 1830 |
Rice, Milled | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
Cote d'Ivoire | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Harvested | 1030 | 1030 | 1077 | 1400 | 0 | 1486 |
Beginning Stocks | 206 | 206 | 476 | 446 | 0 | 500 |
Milled Production | 1340 | 1340 | 1400 | 1836 | 0 | 1950 |
Rough Production | 2062 | 2062 | 2154 | 2825 | 0 | 3000 |
Milling Rate (.9999) | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 0 | 6500 |
MY Imports | 1300 | 1290 | 800 | 1200 | 0 | 1200 |
TY Imports | 1100 | 950 | 800 | 1140 | 0 | 1100 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 2846 | 2836 | 2676 | 3482 | 0 | 3650 |
MY Exports | 30 | 50 | 50 | 150 | 0 | 200 |
TY Exports | 20 | 40 | 50 | 150 | 0 | 200 |
Consumption and Residual | 2340 | 2340 | 2300 | 2832 | 0 | 3150 |
Ending Stocks | 476 | 446 | 326 | 500 | 0 | 300 |
Total Distribution | 2846 | 2836 | 2676 | 3482 | 0 | 3650 |
Rice, Milled | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
Burkina | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Harvested | 140 | 170 | 140 | 138 | 0 | 183 |
Beginning Stocks | 20 | 20 | 26 | 20 | 0 | 10 |
Milled Production | 226 | 226 | 235 | 211 | 0 | 240 |
Rough Production | 348 | 348 | 362 | 325 | 0 | 369 |
Milling Rate (.9999) | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 0 | 6500 |
MY Imports | 350 | 275 | 350 | 350 | 0 | 350 |
TY Imports | 350 | 275 | 350 | 350 | 0 | 350 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 596 | 521 | 611 | 581 | 0 | 600 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
TY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Consumption and Residual | 570 | 501 | 590 | 571 | 0 | 590 |
Ending Stocks | 26 | 20 | 21 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
Total Distribution | 596 | 521 | 611 | 581 | 0 | 600 |
Rice, Milled | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
Mali | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Harvested | 684 | 684 | 743 | 725 | 0 | 750 |
Beginning Stocks | 155 | 155 | 144 | 150 | 0 | 150 |
Milled Production | 1409 | 1400 | 1593 | 1515 | 0 | 1650 |
Rough Production | 2168 | 2154 | 2451 | 2331 | 0 | 2538 |
Milling Rate (.9999) | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 0 | 6500 |
MY Imports | 180 | 200 | 130 | 170 | 0 | 170 |
TY Imports | 180 | 200 | 130 | 170 | 0 | 170 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 1744 | 1755 | 1867 | 1835 | 0 | 1970 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
TY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Consumption and Residual | 1600 | 1605 | 1680 | 1685 | 0 | 1770 |
Ending Stocks | 144 | 150 | 187 | 150 | 0 | 200 |
Total Distribution | 1744 | 1755 | 1867 | 1835 | 0 | 1970 |
Rice, Milled | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
Gambia, The | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Harvested | 60 | 60 | 67 | 67 | 0 | 89 |
Beginning Stocks | 35 | 35 | 0 | 15 | 0 | 5 |
Milled Production | 10 | 30 | 35 | 45 | 0 | 60 |
Rough Production | 15 | 46 | 54 | 69 | 0 | 92 |
Milling Rate (.9999) | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 0 | 6500 |
MY Imports | 140 | 140 | 155 | 155 | 0 | 155 |
TY Imports | 125 | 125 | 150 | 150 | 0 | 150 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 185 | 205 | 190 | 215 | 0 | 220 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
TY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Consumption and Residual | 185 | 190 | 185 | 210 | 0 | 215 |
Ending Stocks | 0 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
Total Distribution | 185 | 205 | 190 | 215 | 0 | 220 |
Rice, Milled | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
Chad | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Harvested | 0 | 250 | 0 | 235 | 0 | 250 |
Beginning Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5 |
Milled Production | 0 | 180 | 0 | 145 | 0 | 180 |
Rough Production | 0 | 300 | 0 | 242 | 0 | 300 |
Milling Rate (.9999) | 0 | 6000 | 0 | 6000 | 0 | 6000 |
MY Imports | 0 | 10 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 50 |
TY Imports | 0 | 10 | 0 | 50 | 0 | 50 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 0 | 190 | 0 | 205 | 0 | 235 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
TY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Consumption and Residual | 0 | 180 | 0 | 200 | 0 | 230 |
Ending Stocks | 0 | 10 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
Total Distribution | 0 | 190 | 0 | 205 | 0 | 235 |
Rice, Milled | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
Guinea | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Harvested | 1000 | 990 | 1000 | 1023 | 0 | 1040 |
Beginning Stocks | 130 | 130 | 51 | 30 | 0 | 51 |
Milled Production | 1301 | 1300 | 1320 | 1351 | 0 | 1375 |
Rough Production | 1971 | 1970 | 2000 | 2047 | 0 | 2083 |
Milling Rate (.9999) | 6600 | 6600 | 6600 | 6600 | 0 | 6600 |
MY Imports | 300 | 300 | 350 | 350 | 0 | 350 |
TY Imports | 300 | 300 | 350 | 350 | 0 | 350 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 1731 | 1730 | 1721 | 1731 | 0 | 1776 |
MY Exports | 50 | 100 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 50 |
TY Exports | 50 | 100 | 50 | 50 | 0 | 50 |
Consumption and Residual | 1630 | 1600 | 1620 | 1630 | 0 | 1676 |
Ending Stocks | 51 | 30 | 51 | 51 | 0 | 50 |
Total Distribution | 1731 | 1730 | 1721 | 1731 | 0 | 1776 |
Rice, Milled | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
Guinea-Bissau | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Harvested | 86 | 86 | 107 | 107 | 0 | 115 |
Beginning Stocks | 26 | 26 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 16 |
Milled Production | 80 | 80 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 110 |
Rough Production | 133 | 133 | 167 | 167 | 0 | 183 |
Milling Rate (.9999) | 6000 | 6000 | 6000 | 6000 | 0 | 6000 |
MY Imports | 160 | 150 | 160 | 160 | 0 | 160 |
TY Imports | 160 | 150 | 160 | 160 | 0 | 160 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 266 | 256 | 271 | 276 | 0 | 286 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
TY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Consumption and Residual | 255 | 240 | 260 | 260 | 0 | 271 |
Ending Stocks | 11 | 16 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 15 |
Total Distribution | 266 | 256 | 271 | 276 | 0 | 286 |
Rice, Milled | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
Niger | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Harvested | 21 | 21 | 22 | 19 | 0 | 22 |
Beginning Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Milled Production | 69 | 69 | 70 | 60 | 0 | 70 |
Rough Production | 106 | 106 | 108 | 92 | 0 | 108 |
Milling Rate (.9999) | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 0 | 6500 |
MY Imports | 300 | 300 | 300 | 350 | 0 | 350 |
TY Imports | 300 | 300 | 300 | 350 | 0 | 350 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 369 | 369 | 370 | 410 | 0 | 425 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
TY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Consumption and Residual | 369 | 369 | 370 | 405 | 0 | 420 |
Ending Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
Total Distribution | 369 | 369 | 370 | 410 | 0 | 425 |
Rice, Milled | 2014/2015 | 2015/2016 | 2016/2017 | |||
Market Begin Year | Oct 2014 | Oct 2015 | Oct 2016 | |||
Togo | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post | USDA Official | New Post |
Area Harvested | 49 | 49 | 51 | 48 | 0 | 55 |
Beginning Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Milled Production | 95 | 95 | 100 | 92 | 0 | 110 |
Rough Production | 146 | 146 | 154 | 142 | 0 | 169 |
Milling Rate (.9999) | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 6500 | 0 | 6500 |
MY Imports | 100 | 100 | 100 | 120 | 0 | 120 |
TY Imports | 100 | 100 | 100 | 120 | 0 | 120 |
TY Imp. from U.S. | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Supply | 195 | 195 | 200 | 212 | 0 | 230 |
MY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
TY Exports | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Consumption and Residual | 195 | 195 | 200 | 212 | 0 | 230 |
Ending Stocks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total Distribution | 195 | 195 | 200 | 212 | 0 | 230 |