Report Highlights:

This report concerns only selected countries in West Africa. MY2015/16 milled rice production is expected to reach 5.9 mil lion tons, a 17 percent increase from last season production. Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, and Guinea are the major producers with 37 percent, 8 percent and 4 percent increase, respectively, compared to the previous year production. Senegal milled rice production for MY 2015/16 increased 64 percent compared to the previous year figure. MY 2015/16 rice imports may reach 3.9 million tons, an 8 percent increase compared to the past season. Post expects the total milled rice production in all the countries in MY 2016/17 to reach 6.4 million tons, a 7 percent increase.

Executive Summary

Milled rice production continues to increase in selected countries and is estimated at 5.9 million tons for MY 2015/16, a 17 percent increase from last season.

In MY 2015/16, Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal increased their production considerably, 37 percent and 64 percent, respectively due to continual investment in the sector, in alignment with their national rice production strategies.

For MY 2015/16, Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea, and Mali accounted for most of the increase with 79 percent of the total production.

All the countries combined intend to import 3.8 million tons in MY 2015/16, an 8 percent increase compared to the previous year.

Senegal and Cote d'Ivoire have made progress in their quest to reach self-sufficiency in rice, with a production increase of 37 percent for Cote d'Ivoire and 64 percent for Senegal in MY 2015/16.

Post projects that MY 2016/17 milled rice production to increase by 7.4 percent.

Data are based on country reports and Post estimates.

Production

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso MY 2015/16 milled rice production is estimated at 211,000 tons, a slight decrease (6.6 percent) from last season. Imports are estimated at 350,000 tons for MY 2015/16.

Area harvested reached 138.500 hectares representing 20 percent decrease compared to the previous year.

Besides the decrease of area harvested, other factors such as drought may explain the decline in rice production in Burkina Faso.

Post estimates MY 2016/17 milled rice production at 240, 000 tons.

Cote d'Ivoire

Cote d'Ivoire continues to increase milled rice production in alignment with the Government Revised National Rice Strategy (SNDR) 2012-2020 initiative, which aims to produce 2.0 million tons. For MY2015/16, milled rice production reached 1.8 million tons, a 37 percent increase from last season.

This production represents 31 percent increase compared to USDA official data. Post anticipates a production of 1.9 million tons for MY 2016/17.

Rice import remains stable with 1.2 million tons for MY 2015/16.

Mali

Mali milled rice production for MY 2015/16 increased 8 percent from last season to 1.5 million tons, but 5 percent less than USDA official data.

Area harvested is estimated at 725,000 ha in MY2015/16.

Post forecast MY 2016/17 rice production at 1.6 million tons.

Senegal

Senegal milled rice production increased considerably in MY 2015/16, representing 64 percent increase compared to last season and 53 percent increase compared to USDA official number.

Post estimates MY2016/17 milled rice production at 680,000 tons.

Consumption (including residual)

Post estimates MY 2015/16 rice consumption at 9.5 million tons, representing 10 percent increase over the previous production for selected countries. Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Senegal, and Guinea, are the major rice consumers.

Post expects rice consumption for MY 2016/17 to increase 6 percent (10.1 million tons).

Trade

MY 2015/16 rice import is estimated at 3.8 million tons, an 8 percent increase compared to MY 2014/15. Post believes that rice imports for MY 2016/17 will remain stable.

Cote d'Ivoire

Cote d'Ivoire rice import for calendar year 2015 reached 1.137 million tons, a 19 percent increase compared to the previous year. The top rice suppliers are Thailand (34 percent), India (25 percent), Vietnam (24 percent), and Pakistan (13 percent).

Senegal

Senegal rice import is estimated at 989, 000 tons for calendar year 2015, representing 3 percent increase compared to the previous year. The top rice suppliers are India (61 percent), Thailand (21 percent), and Pakistan (7 percent).

Countries

Production, Milled

1000 MT

Imports

1000 MT

Consumption

1000 MT

2015

2016

2017

2015

2016

2017

2015

2016

2017

Burkina Faso

226

211

240

275

350

350

501

571

590

Chad

180

145

180

10

50

50

180

200

230

Cote d'Ivoire

1,340

1,836

1,950

952

1,140

1,100

2,340

2,832

3,150

Gambia

30

45

60

125

150

150

190

210

215

Guinea-Bissau

80

100

110

150

160

160

240

260

271

Guinea-Conakry

1,300

1,351

1,375

300

350

350

1,600

1,630

1,676

Mali

1,400

1,515

1,650

200

170

170

1,605

1,685

1,770

Niger

69

60

70

300

350

350

369

405

420

Senegal

380

623

680

1100

950

950

1,494

1,568

1,620

Togo

95

92

110

100

120

120

195

212

230

Total

5,100

5,978

6,425

3,512

3,790

3,750

8,714

9,573

10,172

Source: Country data from the CILSS meeting and FAS Dakar estimates

Note: Data for 2015, 2016, and 2017 correspond to the marketing year period (from Oct the previous year to Sept the following year), i.e., MY 2015/16 (Oct 2015-Sept 2016)

Policy

Cote d'Ivoire

Cote d'Ivoire national strategic plan 2012-2020 aims to reach self-sufficiency by producing 2.0 million tons of milled rice by 2020. It also expects to start exporting rice to the sub region.

Post believes that the Government of Cote d'Ivoire GOCI is on track to reaching self-sufficiency based on rice production increases (37 percent) from MY 2014/15 to MY 2015/16, assuming that trends continues.

Senegal

Senegal still continues to implement its national strategic plan (PRACAS) that aims to accelerate agriculture production in the country. It also aims to reach self-sufficiency in rice by producing one million ton of milled rice by 2017. Due to continual investment in agricultural equipment, Senegal produced 623,000 tons of rice in MY 2015/16.

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Senegal

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

135

135

155

236

0

260

Beginning Stocks

229

229

305

205

0

200

Milled Production

380

380

408

623

0

680

Rough Production

559

559

600

916

0

1000

Milling Rate (.9999)

6800

6800

6800

6800

0

6800

MY Imports

1200

1100

1000

950

0

950

TY Imports

1100

1250

1100

985

0

990

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

3

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1809

1709

1713

1778

0

1830

MY Exports

10

10

10

10

0

10

TY Exports

10

10

10

10

0

10

Consumption and Residual

1494

1494

1500

1568

0

1620

Ending Stocks

305

205

203

200

0

200

Total Distribution

1809

1709

1713

1778

0

1830

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Cote d'Ivoire

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

1030

1030

1077

1400

0

1486

Beginning Stocks

206

206

476

446

0

500

Milled Production

1340

1340

1400

1836

0

1950

Rough Production

2062

2062

2154

2825

0

3000

Milling Rate (.9999)

6500

6500

6500

6500

0

6500

MY Imports

1300

1290

800

1200

0

1200

TY Imports

1100

950

800

1140

0

1100

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

14

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

2846

2836

2676

3482

0

3650

MY Exports

30

50

50

150

0

200

TY Exports

20

40

50

150

0

200

Consumption and Residual

2340

2340

2300

2832

0

3150

Ending Stocks

476

446

326

500

0

300

Total Distribution

2846

2836

2676

3482

0

3650

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Burkina

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

140

170

140

138

0

183

Beginning Stocks

20

20

26

20

0

10

Milled Production

226

226

235

211

0

240

Rough Production

348

348

362

325

0

369

Milling Rate (.9999)

6500

6500

6500

6500

0

6500

MY Imports

350

275

350

350

0

350

TY Imports

350

275

350

350

0

350

TY Imp. from U.S.

4

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

596

521

611

581

0

600

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

570

501

590

571

0

590

Ending Stocks

26

20

21

10

0

10

Total Distribution

596

521

611

581

0

600

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Mali

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

684

684

743

725

0

750

Beginning Stocks

155

155

144

150

0

150

Milled Production

1409

1400

1593

1515

0

1650

Rough Production

2168

2154

2451

2331

0

2538

Milling Rate (.9999)

6500

6500

6500

6500

0

6500

MY Imports

180

200

130

170

0

170

TY Imports

180

200

130

170

0

170

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1744

1755

1867

1835

0

1970

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

1600

1605

1680

1685

0

1770

Ending Stocks

144

150

187

150

0

200

Total Distribution

1744

1755

1867

1835

0

1970

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Gambia, The

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

60

60

67

67

0

89

Beginning Stocks

35

35

0

15

0

5

Milled Production

10

30

35

45

0

60

Rough Production

15

46

54

69

0

92

Milling Rate (.9999)

6500

6500

6500

6500

0

6500

MY Imports

140

140

155

155

0

155

TY Imports

125

125

150

150

0

150

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

185

205

190

215

0

220

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

185

190

185

210

0

215

Ending Stocks

0

15

5

5

0

5

Total Distribution

185

205

190

215

0

220

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Chad

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

0

250

0

235

0

250

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

10

0

5

Milled Production

0

180

0

145

0

180

Rough Production

0

300

0

242

0

300

Milling Rate (.9999)

0

6000

0

6000

0

6000

MY Imports

0

10

0

50

0

50

TY Imports

0

10

0

50

0

50

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

0

190

0

205

0

235

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

0

180

0

200

0

230

Ending Stocks

0

10

0

5

0

5

Total Distribution

0

190

0

205

0

235

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Guinea

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

1000

990

1000

1023

0

1040

Beginning Stocks

130

130

51

30

0

51

Milled Production

1301

1300

1320

1351

0

1375

Rough Production

1971

1970

2000

2047

0

2083

Milling Rate (.9999)

6600

6600

6600

6600

0

6600

MY Imports

300

300

350

350

0

350

TY Imports

300

300

350

350

0

350

TY Imp. from U.S.

3

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

1731

1730

1721

1731

0

1776

MY Exports

50

100

50

50

0

50

TY Exports

50

100

50

50

0

50

Consumption and Residual

1630

1600

1620

1630

0

1676

Ending Stocks

51

30

51

51

0

50

Total Distribution

1731

1730

1721

1731

0

1776

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Guinea-Bissau

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

86

86

107

107

0

115

Beginning Stocks

26

26

11

16

0

16

Milled Production

80

80

100

100

0

110

Rough Production

133

133

167

167

0

183

Milling Rate (.9999)

6000

6000

6000

6000

0

6000

MY Imports

160

150

160

160

0

160

TY Imports

160

150

160

160

0

160

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

266

256

271

276

0

286

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

255

240

260

260

0

271

Ending Stocks

11

16

11

16

0

15

Total Distribution

266

256

271

276

0

286

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Niger

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

21

21

22

19

0

22

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

5

Milled Production

69

69

70

60

0

70

Rough Production

106

106

108

92

0

108

Milling Rate (.9999)

6500

6500

6500

6500

0

6500

MY Imports

300

300

300

350

0

350

TY Imports

300

300

300

350

0

350

TY Imp. from U.S.

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

369

369

370

410

0

425

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

369

369

370

405

0

420

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

5

0

5

Total Distribution

369

369

370

410

0

425

Rice, Milled

2014/2015

2015/2016

2016/2017

Market Begin Year

Oct 2014

Oct 2015

Oct 2016

Togo

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

USDA Official

New Post

Area Harvested

49

49

51

48

0

55

Beginning Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Milled Production

95

95

100

92

0

110

Rough Production

146

146

154

142

0

169

Milling Rate (.9999)

6500

6500

6500

6500

0

6500

MY Imports

100

100

100

120

0

120

TY Imports

100

100

100

120

0

120

TY Imp. from U.S.

1

0

0

0

0

0

Total Supply

195

195

200

212

0

230

MY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

TY Exports

0

0

0

0

0

0

Consumption and Residual

195

195

200

212

0

230

Ending Stocks

0

0

0

0

0

0

Total Distribution

195

195

200

212

0

230