IGC raises 2014/15 world wheat, corn production outlooks Sept. 1, 2014
The International Grains Council (IGC) on 29th August raised its forecast for global wheat production in 2014/15 to reflect larger-than-expected crops in Russia, the European Union and China.
The IGC, in a monthly update, put world wheat production in 2014/15 at a new record - 713.4 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 702.3 MMT and last year's harvest result (712.5 MMT).
The largest revision was for Russia where the crop was put at 60 MMT, up 5 MMT from last month's forecast and well above the prior season's 52.1 MMT.
The EU's wheat crop was forecast to total 150.8 MMT, up from a previous projection of 147.0 MMT and well above last year's harvest (143.1 MMT).
China's crop was put at 125 MMT, up from an earlier estimate of 122 MMT and last year's crop (121.9 MMT).
The world harvest will include an above average proportion of low/medium grade supplies and, while strong competition from corn is expected in most markets, feed wheat consumption is forecast to rise.
Owing to demand growth, carryover stocks are placed only slightly higher than before.
Global carryover stocks at the end of the 2014/15 season were seen at 194.5 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 193.4 MMT and a year earlier total of 187.5 MMT.
The IGC projected world corn production at 972.7 MMT, up 3.8 MMT from last month's forecast but still below the prior season's record harvest (981.9 MMT).
Northern hemisphere yield prospects continued to improve in August, including in the US, where crops have benefitted from a prolonged period of benign weather.
The IGC raised its forecast for the U.S. corn crop by 2 MMT to 355 MMTwhile projections for Ukraine and the European Union were also upwardly revised.
Global carryover corn stocks at the end of the 2014/15 season were put at 190 MMT, up from a previous forecast of 187 MMT and a year earlier total of 173 MMT.
The Council’s global ending stocks forecast is increased for a fourth consecutive month, with cumulative carryovers seen at their largest since 1987/88. Major exporter stocks appear ample