Coarse Grains. World Markets and Trade. April 2016 – USDA April 13, 2016
World corn production for 2015/16 is up with larger crops for Argentina and Mexico. Global corn trade is raised to a record level with larger imports for Vietnam and Mexico more than offsetting a cut to EU. Exports are boosted for Argentina, EU, Russia, and Ukraine. Global consumption is higher and ending stocks are projected at record levels. The U.S. season-average farm price is lowered slightly from last month.
Throughout March, U.S. export quotes strengthened based on robust sales and shipments, but dropped at the end of the month in response to larger-than-expected planting intentions for 2016 in the Prospective Plantings report. U.S. quotes have since recovered, ending at $163/ton, up $4 from last month. U.S. quotes remain competitive against all major exporters. Argentine and Black Sea quotes also moved higher this month (now $165/ton and $166/ton, respectively) with strong exports. Brazilian prices are seasonally unavailable.
TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16
- U.S. sorghum is cut 200,000 tons to 7.4 million on the slowing pace of sales, especially to China.
- Argentine corn is increased 1.0 million tons to 20.5 million on larger supplies.
- EU corn is up 300,000 tons to 1.4 million on the pace of licenses issued.
- Russian corn is raised 300,000 tons to 4.1 million with larger shipments to South Korea and Middle Eastern countries. Barley is boosted 300,000 tons to 3.3 million reflecting large shipments to Saudi Arabia.
- South African corn is trimmed 100,000 tons to 700,000 on tighter supplies and the current pace of trade.
- Ukrainian corn is raised 200,000 tons to 15.7 million on a continued strong pace.
- Argentine barley is boosted 400,000 tons to 2.6 million on a larger crop and the fast pace of shipments.
- Australian barley is cut 500,000 tons to 5.5 million on slower pace of trade to China.
- Kazakh barley is up 200,000 tons to 800,000 reflecting strong shipments to Iran.
- Egyptian corn is lifted 250,000 tons to 8.3 million as stronger demand for feed is reflected by a faster pace of imports.
- EU corn is cut 1.0 million tons to 15.0 million on expectations that a greater use of wheat in feed rations curbs demand for corn. In addition, the pace of issuing import licenses has slowed in recent months.
- Indian corn is down 150,000 tons to 250,000 on the recent cancellation of a tender.
- Mexican corn is raised 500,000 tons to 12.0 million on the fast pace of imports from the United States. Sorghum is up 200,000 tons to 700,000 on a smaller crop. Even with larger imports, sorghum feeding is expected to be lower based on tight domestic supplies and competitively-priced corn imports.
- Turkish corn is lowered 300,000 tons to 900,000 on a slower-than-expected pace of trade.
- Vietnamese corn is up 2.0 million tons to a record 5.0 million reflecting strong shipments from Brazil and Argentina.
- Iranian barley is boosted 400,000 tons to 1.9 million on strong shipments from Kazakhstan.
- Japanese barley is down 200,000 tons to 1.1 million and sorghum is cut 100,000 tons to 850,000, both on trade to date. Increased use of domestic rice in feed rations continues to erode demand for imported barley and sorghum.
- Saudi barley is up 500,000 tons to 8.5 million on larger-than-expected shipments from Argentina.
- Chinese sorghum is trimmed 200,000 tons to 6.8 million with the slowing pace in recent months