OVERVIEW

World wheat production for 2015/16 is lowered, as sizeable reductions in Australia and India overshadow a slightly larger EU crop. Global trade is also down fractionally this month, as evidenced by lower imports for Egypt, Iraq, the Philippines, and Saudi Arabia. Higher exports for Argentina are more than offset by declines for Australia and Russia. U.S. exports and the season-average farm price are unchanged this month.

U.S. PRICES:

Prices for all U.S. wheat classes declined throughout February, pressured by abundant competitor supplies. Hard Red Winter (HRW), while experiencing a late rise, slid $6 to $207/ton. Hard Red Spring (HRS) fell $5 to $225/ton. Both Soft Red Winter (SRW) and Soft White Wheat (SWW) ended at $191/ton, registering $11 and $15 declines, respectively. Despite softening prices across all classes, U.S. wheat remains uncompetitive against most major exporters.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16

Selected Exporters

  • Argentina is raised 500,000 tons to 7.0 million on a stronger pace.
  • Australia is down 1.0 million tons to 16.5 million on account of tighter supplies and intensified competition from Argentina.
  • Russia is cut 500,000 tons to 23.0 million due to the recent slow trade to major markets. (Imports are up 200,000 tons to 700,000, based primarily upon strong trade from Kazakhstan.)

Selected Importers

  • Egypt is down 500,000 tons to 11.0 million due to a slower pace. (Exports are boosted 200,000 tons to 550,000 due to robust trade in flour and products.)
  • European Union is lifted 300,000 tons to 6.3 million based on import licenses and the expected utilization of Ukraine's entire calendar year 2016 tariff-rate quota by the close of the trade year (June 30, 2016).
  • Iraq is lowered 500,000 tons to 2.7 million on account of sluggish trade.
  • Philippines is dropped 500,000 tons to 4.3 million as a result of weaker-than-expected demand for feed-quality wheat.
  • Saudi Arabia is reduced 500,000 tons to 3.3 million based on slow trade.