OVERVIEW

Global production for 2015/16 is down from last month due to a smaller expected second crop in Thailand. Trade is adjusted lower due to reduced exports for major global suppliers Thailand and Vietnam and fewer imports from Indonesia, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Global stocks are down marginally and remain 14 percent lower than the prior year. U.S. exports are unchanged. The U.S. season-average farm price is lowered.

The United States exported nearly 300,000 tons of rice to Colombia in 2015, more than tripling the amount exported in 2014. As discussed in the July 2015 report, Colombia has an annual tariff rate quota under the U.S. – Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement, which was set at 90,152 metric tons in 2015. However, Colombia's tight domestic supplies, coupled with fewer imports from neighboring Venezuela led to higher local prices, spurring the need for out-ofquota imports. Although lower-priced rice was available on the global market, Colombia fulfilled its additional demand with imports of U.S. rice.

While domestic rice prices have fallen from the highs in 2015, Colombia's Ministry of Agriculture announced that 200,000 tons of imports would be needed in 2016 due to prolonged dry conditions. According to the declaration, the imports will be subject to normal duties, will be authorized only from countries that have satisfied Colombia's phytosanitary requirements, and will be imported by the private sector.

Global Rice Export Quotes

Over the past month, the premiums that U.S. and South American quotes hold over Asian have continued to shrink. After beginning the 2016 calendar year at $368/ton, Thai quotes rose 6 percent to $389/ton due to deliveries of pre-existing government-to-government sales. During the same period, continued weak demand resulted in Uruguay quotes sliding 6 percent to $470/ton and U.S. quotes falling $25 to $495/ton.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES for 2016

  • Indonesia's imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 1.9 million as larger carryin stocks reduce the need for additional imports in 2016.
  • Iran's imports are reduced 150,000 tons to 1.45 million on shipping and financing difficulties, reflecting stagnant demand growth.
  • Saudi Arabia's imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.45 million on indications of a slower rate of consumption growth in line with prior years.
  • Thailand's exports are cut 300,000 tons to 10.0 million on lower production.
  • Vietnam's exports are lowered 300,000 tons to 7.0 million on reduced exportable supplies.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES for 2015

  • India's exports are reduced 200,000 tons to 10.8 million as December exports were lower than expected.
  • Thailand's exports are up 579,000 tons to 9.8 million on final data.
  • Vietnam's exports are raised 105,000 tons to 6.6 million on final data.