Pakistan Oilseed Processors Seize Opportunity to Crush Soybeans

Pakistan, long an importer of soybean meal, is transitioning to become a significant soybean importer. Pakistan imported more than 500,000 tons of soybeans in 2014/15, a record, and is projected to import as much as 1.5 million tons in the current marketing year. There are many factors driving this change, not the least being the increase in import duties on soybean meal which have risen from zero to 21 percent over the past 18 months. While this has increased the profitability of crushing soybeans versus importing meal, it also reflects the changing dynamics taking place in Pakistan.

In recent years, growth in total SME (soybean meal equivalent) use has accelerated in line with the expansion and modernization of the poultry sector. This has increased the demand for highquality soybean meal. India, which has historically been the primary supplier of soybean meal to Pakistan, has seen exportable supplies dwindle as domestic demand has risen while soybean production has fallen. This tight domestic supply situation has contributed to the strength of its soybean meal price, despite the overall decline in global soybean and meal prices. As a result, Pakistan has turned to alternative protein sources.

With growing demand for protein feed for poultry, continued growth in demand for vegetable oil, and large supplies of soybeans available in the global market, Pakistan is expected to continue to shift toward imported soybeans during the 2015/16 marketing year.

OVERVIEW

Global soybean production is reduced this month as a lower estimate for India more than offsets higher crops in Canada, Ukraine, and Russia. Exports are raised on higher shipments from Argentina and Ukraine, more than offsetting reductions for Bolivia and India. Global stocks are lowered this month, reflecting smaller crops as well as higher global crush. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in November averaged $349/ton, down $16 from last month.

As of the week ending November 26, U.S. 2015/16 soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 18.9 million tons compared with 24.9 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 32.9 million tons, compared with 39.6 million for the same period last year.

2015/16 TRADE OUTLOOK

  • Algeria soybean meal imports are down 175,000 tons to 1.4 million reflecting a slower protein meal consumption growth.
  • Argentina
    • Soybean exports are up 500,000 tons to 11.3 million on continued strong demand from China.
    • Soybean meal exports are raised 200,000 tons to 30.8 million on larger supplies and stronger fourth quarter 2015 exports.
    • Soybean oil exports are up 150,000 tons to 5.5 million on strong demand in global markets.
  • Australia rapeseed exports are reduced 100,000 tons to 2.6 million reflecting a lower production forecast.
  • Benin palm oil imports are raised 100,000 tons to 600,000; at the same time exports are up 140,000 tons to 580,000 reflecting growing demand for vegetable oil in the West Africa region.
  • Bolivia
    • Soybean exports plummet 175,000 tons to 150,000 reflecting growing domestic crush.
    • Soybean meal exports are up 100,000 tons to 1.7 million on higher crush and growing exportable supplies.
  • Burma palm oil imports are up 100,000 tons to 850,000 on moderate year-to-year growth.
  • Canada
    • Rapeseed exports are raised 300,000 tons to 8.5 million on a larger production forecast.
    • Rapeseed meal exports are up 100,000 tons to 3.8 million reflecting growing export opportunities.
    • Rapeseed oil exports are raised 200,000 tons to 2.8 million on larger demand by India.
  • Egypt palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.5 million reflecting a lower re-export forecast.
  • India
    • Soybean exports are cut 100,000 tons to 200,000 following a lower production forecast.
    • Soybean meal exports plummet 400,000 tons to 300,000 on reduced crush due to a lower soybean production forecast.
    • Rapeseed meal exports are slashed 700,000 tons to 400,000 on reduced crush due to a lower rapeseed production forecast.
    • Soybean oil imports are raised 200,000 tons to 3.4 million, offsetting reductions in domestic vegetable oil production.
    • Rapeseed oil imports are up 200,000 tons to 400,000, reflecting higher domestic demand for vegetable oil and larger exportable supplies in Canada.
    • Palm oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 9.7 million on lower exportable supplies in Indonesia.
  • Indonesia
    • Palm oil exports are reduced 1.0 million tons to 24.5 million on a lower production forecast.
    • Palm kernel meal exports are down 150,000 tons to 3.9 million on reduced crush following a lower palm kernel production forecast.
    • Soybean meal imports are reduced 200,000 tons to 4.5 million in line with a reduction in previous marketing year trade.
  • Iran
    • Palm oil imports plummet 550,000 tons to 200,000 reflecting domestic policy changes in vegetable oil consumption.
    • Soybean imports are raised 150,000 tons to 1.3 million on import trends and strong demand for protein meal.
  • South Korea
    • Rapeseed meal imports are down 200,000 tons to 335,000 on lower exports from India.
    • Soybean meal imports are raised 100,000 tons to 1.8 million offsetting shrinking supplies of rapeseed meal.
  • Malaysia palm oil imports are reduced 100,000 tons to 400,000 on lower exports from Indonesia.
  • Pakistan
    • Soybean imports rocket 650,000 tons to 1.5 million reflecting the growing profitability of domestic processing; hence rapeseed imports are down 225,000 tons to 600,000.
    • Soybean meal imports are reduced 100,000 tons to 900,000 on growing crush and higher tariffs on imports.
    • Palm oil imports are raised 200,000 tons to 3.2 million on continuing demand for vegetable oil.
  • Serbia soybean exports are up 120,000 tons to 150,000 reflecting larger exportable supplies.
  • Singapore palm oil imports are reduced 265,000 tons to 535,000 on lower industrial consumption related to biodiesel.
  • South Africa soybean meal imports are raised 100,000 tons to 525,000 on growing demand for protein feeds.
  • Taiwan soybean imports are up 170,000 tons to 2.6 million on a higher forecast crush and growing protein meal demand.
  • Thailand rapeseed meal imports are reduced 160,000 tons to 250,000 reflecting lower exportable supplies in India.
  • Turkey palm oil imports are down 200,000 tons to 600,000 reflecting a slowdown in forecast vegetable oil consumption.
  • Ukraine soybean exports are raised 100,000 tons to 2.1 million following a larger production forecast.