OVERVIEW

World corn production for 2015/16 is lower with reductions for India and South Africa more than offsetting the gain for Canada. Global trade is little changed overall. Exports are raised for Brazil and Canada but lowered for the United States and India. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged.

PRICES

Since the release of the November WASDE report, U.S. and Black Sea corn quotes have dropped slightly. U.S. corn export prices have been pressured by a relative lack of competitiveness. In comparison, Argentine and Brazilian corn quotes are up (and are now above U.S. Gulf prices), supported by continued strong foreign demand and seasonally tightening old crop supplies.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16

Selected Exporters

  • U.S. corn is cut 1.5 million tons to 44.5 million, reflecting the sluggish pace of sales and shipments.
  • Brazilian corn is boosted 1.0 million tons to a new record 34.0 million based on the stronger-than-expected pace of shipments.
  • Canadian corn is doubled to 1.0 million tons on larger exportable supplies.
  • Indian corn is lowered 500,000 tons to 1.0 million on the reduced crop, which is expected to be the smallest since 2009/10.
  • South African corn is up 200,000 tons to 1.0 million based on higher-than-expected old crop shipments (despite lower prospects for 2015/16 production).
  • Argentine sorghum is down 300,000 tons to 1.2 million on a smaller crop. Mostly offsetting this reduction, U.S. and Australian sorghum are raised 100,000 tons each to 7.6 million and 1.0 million, respectively.

Selected Importers

  • Canadian corn is lowered 500,000 tons to 1.0 million with its second-largest crop on record.
  • Chilean corn is up 200,000 tons to 1.8 million as corn is expected to compensate for reduced oats feeding.
  • South African corn is boosted 300,000 tons to 500,000 with reduced crop prospects.
  • Taiwanese corn is cut 200,000 tons to 4.1 million on expectations of moderating growth based on the previous year. (2014/15 imports are also lowered 379,000 tons to 3.8 million).