Indian Soybean Meal Exports Unlikely to Recover in 2015/16

Though once a significant regional exporter of soybean meal, India is unlikely to regain export market share in the coming year. India's domestic use of soybean products has been expanding. Historically, the country consumed the oil and exported excess meal. Growth in domestic poultry and egg production has increased demand for protein meal. Rising demand for soybean meal has coincided with a drop in soybean production, tightening supplies and pushing local prices signficantly above world levels.

This has led to a decline in Indian soybean meal exports, particularly to distant markets. Last year, nearly half of the exports went by surface trade to neighboring markets, primarily Bangladesh and Pakistan. Yet these rapidly-growing markets are seeking alternative suppliers, purchasing not only more affordable soybean meal but also soybeans. India's strong domestic use and declining export prospects appear likely to continue into the future, potentially ending its status as a net exporter. These circumstances may provide opportunities for the United States and South America to expand shipments to Asia.

OVERVIEW

2015/16

Global soybean production is up this month as a record crop in the United States more than offsets reductions in India, Uruguay, and South Africa. Trade is raised to a new record on increased demand from China, boosting exports from the United States, Brazil, and Argentina. Global stocks are lowered this month, reflecting larger crush in Argentina and China. The U.S. season-average farm price is lowered.

2014/15

Global soybean production is lowered this month as a reduced estimate for Uruguay more than offsets an increase for the European Union. Exports are raised on larger shipments from Argentina which more than offset a reduction for Uruguay. Imports are raised on China's strong end-of-season demand. Global ending stocks are lowered in response to growing consumption and exports.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in October averaged $365/ton, up $5 from last month.

As of the week ending October 29, U.S. 2015/16 soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 14.9 million tons compared with 22.2 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 27.9 million tons, compared with 35.6 million for the same period last year.

2015/16 TRADE OUTLOOK

  • United States
    • Soybean exports are boosted 1.1 million tons to 46.7 million on larger supplies.
    • Soybean meal exports are up 181,000 tons to 10.8 million and soybean oil exports are raised 136,000 tons to 1.0 million on larger crush and strong global demand.
  • Argentina
    • Soybean exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 10.8 million on stronger demand by China.
    • Soybean meal exports are up 400,000 tons to 30.6 million on larger supplies and on expectations of improved competitiveness.
    • Soybean oil exports are up 150,000 tons to 5.4 million on strong demand in global markets.
  • Australia rapeseed exports are reduced 100,000 tons to 2.7 million reflecting a lower production forecast.
  • Brazil
    • Soybean exports are raised 550,000 tons to 57.0 million reflecting continued strong competitiveness resulting from a devalued real.
    • Soybean meal exports are up 400,000 tons to 15.6 million on higher crush and growing exportable supplies.
  • Canada rapeseed exports are up 400,000 tons to 8.2 million reflecting a larger production forecast and expected growth in sales to China.
  • China
    • Soybean imports are raised 1.5 million tons to 80.5 million reflecting continuing strong demand for protein feed.
    • Soybean oil imports are down 100,000 tons to 850,000 on larger domestic vegetable oil production.
    • Soybean meal exports are raised 200,000 tons to 1.8 million, replacing some regional trade previously supplied by India.
    • Rapeseed imports are up 200,000 tons to 4.1 million, offsetting declines in domestic oilseed production.
  • European Union soybean imports are raised 100,000 tons to 13.7 million to offset reductions in the sunflowerseed production forecast.
  • India
    • Soybean meal exports plummet 1.0 million tons to 700,000 on reduced crush due to a lower soybean production forecast.
    • Soybean oil imports are raised 300,000 tons to 3.2 million, with domestic production projected lower on a smaller crop.
  • Indonesia palm oil exports are up 500,000 tons to 25.5 million on moderate year-to-year growth in exports and continuing global demand for vegetable oil.
  • Uruguay soybean exports are reduced 380,000 tons to 2.9 million on a lower production forecast.

2014/15 TRADE CHANGES– based on trade data

  • Argentina
    • Soybean exports are raised 973,000 tons to 10.6 million.
    • Soybean meal exports are up 545,000 tons to 28.5 million.
    • Soybean oil exports grow 168,000 tons to 5.1 million.
  • China
    • Soybean imports surge 1.4 million tons to 78.4 million on final trade data.
    • Soybean meal exports are reduced 105,000 tons to 1.6 million on final trade data.
    • Soybean oil imports are down 127,000 tons to 773,000 on final trade data.
    • Palm oil imports are raised 146,000 tons to 5.7 million on final trade data.
  • India soybean oil imports are up 149,000 tons to 2.8 million on final trade data.
  • Indonesia palm oil exports are raised 500,000 tons to 25.0 million.
  • Pakistan soybean imports are raised 188,000 tons to 538,000 on final trade data.
  • Thailand soybean imports are up 186,000 tons to 2.4 million on final trade data.
  • Ukraine sunflowerseed meal exports are reduced 156,000 tons to 3.4 million on final trade data.
  • Uruguay soybean exports are down 380,000 tons to 2.9 million on a lower production estimate.