Global production for 2014/15 remains a record as larger crops in the EU, Pakistan, and Ukraine more than offset smaller crops in Algeria, Argentina, Australia, Canada, and Kazakhstan. Global trade is up slightly. Forecast exports for Canada, EU, Mexico, and the United States are raised, more than offsetting decreases in Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan. The season-average farm price is unchanged.

EU wheat production is projected at a record, with French, German, and United Kingdom crops much higher than last year. Since France and Germany are the primary exporting countries in the EU, their abundant supplies are pressuring prices. The French crop has quality issues and the industry wants to move it into export channels as quickly as possible to create space for a bumper corn crop. However, German wheat is higher-quality; therefore, demand from some traditional French markets in North Africa is expected to provide impetus for strong exports. German prices are currently below Russian prices, making it more competitive into Middle Eastern markets as well. Since August 1, French and German prices plunged $35/ton and $29/ton, respectively, versus a minor drop of $9/ton for Russian wheat.


Domestic: Prices for most wheat classes were down in September, pressured by large global supplies of both wheat and corn. Hard Red Spring (HRS) dropped the most, plunging $23/ton to$369. Hard Red Winter (HRW) is up $1/ton at $282. Soft Red Winter (SRW) fell $5/ton to $240, while Soft White Wheat (SWW) dipped $8 to $255.


Selected Exporters

• Argentina is lowered 300,000 tons to 6.0 million on a smaller crop.

• Australia is down 500,000 tons to 19.0 million based on lower production.

• Canada is up 500,000 tons to 22.5 million on the export pace of old-crop supplies and improving logistics.

• EU is boosted 2.0 million tons to 28.0 million with a record crop and improved competitiveness.

• Kazakhstan is cut 1.0 million tons to 5.5 million on a smaller crop.

• Mexico is raised 500,000 tons to 1.5 million based on strong demand for high-quality durum.

• United States is up 500,000 tons to 25.5 million with growing opportunities to export to Latin American markets based on reduced competition from Argentina and stronger demand in Mexico.

Selected Importers

• Algeria is up 500,000 tons to 7.5 million based on a smaller crop.

• EU is lowered 500,000 tons to 5.0 million based on record production and abundant supplies of feed-quality wheat.

• Mexico is raised 500,000 tons to 4.3 million on the strong early pace of imports.

• Pakistan is down 500,000 tons to 1.0 million with a bigger crop