Global production for 2014/15 is down from last month, primarily driven by reduced crops in India, Sri Lanka, and Pakistan, and is no longer a record. Global consumption and trade are nearly unchanged, while stocks are lowered. U.S. production is forecast slightly higher on yield, while trade is unchanged.

The gap between quotes for U.S. #2/4 and Thai 100B has narrowed in recent months. For the United States, expected large supplies are causing quotes to slide, now at $550 per ton, the lowest since May 2012. In comparison, Thai quotes have rebounded when the government put a hold on sales of stocks, while inspections were underway. Since then, sales of stocks have been limited. With the approaching harvest of a bumper main-season crop, it is unknown if the government will increase the pace of sales in order to minimize the impact on domestic prices.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES

• Brazil’s 2014 exports are down 110,000 tons to 840,000 on trade trends.

• Sri Lanka’s imports for 2015 are up 180,000 tons to 200,000 due to a reduced crop