OVERVIEW

World corn production in 2015/16 is down, with smaller crops in the United States, Ukraine, Argentina, and Ethiopia more than offsetting a higher forecast for Brazil. Global trade is little changed overall, with lower exports for Argentina and Ukraine and a higher forecast for Brazil.

U.S. exports are unchanged and the season-average farm price is up slightly.

PRICES

Since the release of the September WASDE report, U.S. corn quotes rose slightly by $4/ton to $183, on uncertainty over crop production. USDA's September 30 Grain Stocks report confirmed abundant U.S. supplies, but nearby prices are uncompetitive and underscore recent lackluster sales and shipments. Argentine and Brazilian quotes were up slightly; Black Sea quotes dropped slightly over the same period.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16

Selected Exporters

  • Argentine corn is lowered 500,000 tons to 15.0 million on reduced crop prospects. (Exports for 2014/15 are also down 500,000 tons to 18.5 million.)
  • Brazilian corn is boosted 2.0 million tons to a new record 31.0 million on higher crop prospects and record old crop exportable supplies. Trade has been boosted to a new record each of the last 4 months as production estimates have risen.
  • Ukrainian corn is down 1.5 million tons to 17.0 million due to a sharp cut in production. (Exports for 2014/15 are up 300,000 tons to 19.8 million.)
  • Canadian barley is up 300,000 tons to 1.5 million because of greater exportable supplies and reduced competition.
  • Russian barley is lowered 500,000 tons to 4.0 million based on a sharply reduced crop.
  • Ukrainian barley is down 500,000 tons to 3.5 million based on higher-than-anticipated late-season shipments for 2014/15. (Exports for 2014/15 are up 500,000 tons to 4.0 million.)

Selected Importers

  • Saudi corn is lowered 500,000 tons to 4.0 million based on weaker-than-expected trade last year; however the trade and consumption forecast still reflect robust growth in poultry production. (Imports for 2014/15 are down 500,000 tons to 3.0 million.)
  • Saudi barley is cut 500,000 tons to 7.0 million on higher-than-anticipated late-season shipments for 2014/15. (Imports for 2014/15 are up 900,000 tons to 7.5 million.)

TRADE CHANGES IN 2014/15

Selected Exporters - based on trade data

  • U.S. corn is down 200,000 tons to 46.8 million.
  • EU corn is raised 200,000 tons to 4.0 million.
  • South African corn is lowered 200,000 tons to 800,000.
  • EU barley is boosted 1.0 million tons to a record 10.5 million based on licenses and trade data.
  • Australian sorghum is up 200,000 tons to a new record 1.7 million.

Selected Importers - based on trade data

  • Chinese corn is boosted 200,000 tons to a new record 5.7 million.
  • EU corn is lowered 400,000 tons to 8.6 million.
  • Chinese barley is raised 200,000 tons to a new record 9.0 million.