Canadian farmers expect production to return to more normal levels in 2014 for wheat, canola and corn for grain following record levels set in 2013. Soybean production is anticipated to increase to another record level this year, as farmers reported cultivating nearly a million additional acres.

At the time of the survey, farmers on the Prairies reported that excessive rains in late June were likely to affect harvestable area.

Wheat

At the national level, total wheat production is expected to reach 27.7 million tonnes in 2014, down 26.2% from 2013.

This anticipated decrease is the result of 2.6 million fewer harvested acres, and an overall yield decline of 17.6% to 44.0 bushels per acre.

In Saskatchewan, total wheat production is expected to decline 26.9% from 2013 to 13.4 million tonnes. This decrease is the result of 1.4 million fewer acres harvested and a lower yield (-19.0%) to 38.8 bushels per acre.

Production decreases are also expected in Alberta (-21.7%) and Manitoba (-34.9%).

Soybeans

Nationally, soybean production is expected to reach 5.9 million tonnes in 2014, surpassing the record 5.2 million tonnes set in 2013.

In Ontario, soybean production is expected to increase 15.8% to a record 3.6 million tonnes. This is due to a 21.4% increase in harvested area to 3.0 million acres, as average yield is expected to decrease 4.6% to 43.2 bushels per acre.

Quebec farmers project a 16.9% increase in soybean production to a record 990 000 tonnes. Harvested area is expected to increase 17.8% to 836,500 acres. However, yield is anticipated to decrease 0.7% to 43.5 bushels per acre.

In Manitoba, harvested area of soybeans is expected to increase 17.7% to 1.2 million acres, while yield is anticipated to decrease 14.6% to 32.1 bushels per acre. Consequently, soybean production (+0.6%) could reach a level similar to the 2013 record of 1.1 million tonnes.

Canola

Canadian farmers anticipate producing 13.9 million tonnes of canola in 2014, down 22.6% from 2013, mostly the result of a 20.0% decrease in average yield to 32.0 bushels per acre.

In Saskatchewan, 6.7 million tonnes of canola are expected to be produced, down 25.0% from 2013. This is due to a 21.3% decrease in the average yield to 29.6 bushels per acre and 495,000 fewer harvested acres.

In Alberta, farmers anticipate canola production to fall 16.8% to 5.0 million tonnes. This decline is the outcome of an 18.8% decrease in anticipated average yield, as harvested area is expected to increase 2.5% to 6.2 million acres.

In Manitoba, farmers expect canola production of 2.1 million tonnes, down 27.2% from 2013. The decrease is attributable to anticipated declines in both harvested area (-8.3%) and yield (-20.7%).

Corn for grain

At the national level, corn for grain production is expected to decrease 19.5%, from the record 14.2 million tonnes in 2013, to 11.4 million tonnes in 2014.

Following record corn for grain production in 2013, Ontario farmers anticipate a 16.8% decrease in 2014 to 7.5 million tonnes. This is mostly due to a 15.3% decrease in seeded area, since average yield (-1.7%) is expected to be relatively stable.

Quebec farmers project a 19.7% decrease in corn for grain production to 3.0 million tonnes, as a result of decreases in both harvested area (-15.4%) and average yield (-5.2%).

In Manitoba, production of corn for grain is anticipated to reach 739 200 tonnes, down from a record 1.2 million tonnes in 2013, as a result of lower harvested area (-26.7%) and lower yield (-17.3%).

Barley and oats

Nationally, barley production is anticipated to decline 30.0% to 7.2 million tonnes in 2014. This decrease is driven by lower expectations of both harvested area, down 19.9% to 5.2 million acres, and average yield, down 12.6% to 62.7 bushels per acre.

Canadian farmers expect oat production to fall 32.1% to 2.6 million tonnes, the result of anticipated declines in both harvested area and yield.

Note: The July Farm Survey of crop production covering about 12,850 Canadian farms was conducted from July 23 to August 4, 2014. Farmers were asked to report their estimated area, yield and production of grains, oilseeds and special crops


July estimates of production of principal field crops

2012 (final), t

2013 (final), t

July 2014(preliminary), t

2012 to 2013, %

2013 to July 2014, %

Total wheat2

27 205 200

37 529 600

27 704 700

38.0

-26.2

Spring wheat

18 845 400

27 238 700

19 972 300

44.5

-26.7

Durum wheat

4 626 600

6 504 500

4 953 200

40.6

-23.8

Winter wheat

3 733 200

3 786 400

2 779 200

1.4

-26.6

Canola

13 868 500

17 960 100

13 908 000

29.5

-22.6

Corn for grain

13 060 100

14 193 800

11 430 500

8.7

-19.5

Barley

8 012 300

10 237 100

7 163 600

27.8

-30.0

Soybeans

5 086 400

5 198 400

5 900 700

2.2

13.5

Dry field peas

3 340 800

3 849 300

3 558 000

15.2

-7.6

Oats

2 811 900

3 888 000

2 639 400

38.3

-32.1

Lentils

1 537 900

1 880 500

1 929 900

22.3

2.6

Flaxseed

488 900

712 300

908 100

45.7

27.5

Total dry beans

274 400

205 900

300 200

-25.0

45.8

Mustard seed

118 600

154 500

222 300

30.3

43.9

Canary seed

149 700

131 000

145 700

-12.5

11.2

Chick peas

161 400

169 400

142 500

5.0

-15.9

Sunflower seed

86 900

51 900

78 200

-40.3

50.7

Figures may not add up to totals as a result of rounding.

1. Farm surveys collect data from Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta at all six survey occasions during the crop year (which extends from the March to the November occasion). However, data are collected twice a year (in the June Farm survey on seeded areas and in the November Farm survey on final crop production) for Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and British Columbia, which represent between 2% and 4% of national totals. As of July 2014 for these provinces, July and September production estimates are calculated using the final estimates of the last three crop years. The harvested area is first estimated based on the ratio obtained from the sum of harvested areas of the last three years over the sum of the seeded areas of the last three years. This average ratio is applied to their 2014 reported seeded acreage from the June survey. This estimated harvested area is then multiplied by the average yield of the last three years to estimate production.

2. Represents the sum of winter wheat, spring wheat and durum wheat