OVERVIEW

Global production in 2015/16 is raised to a new record as larger crops in the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine more than offset smaller production in Brazil, Canada, and India. Global trade is up slightly, highlighted by larger imports for Brazil and Philippines and cuts for EU and Indonesia. Exports are raised for EU and Ukraine, but lowered for the United States. The seasonaverage farm price is forecast down from last month.

U.S. PRICES:

Domestic: Prices for most U.S. wheat classes were little changed in the last month. Markets are still pressured by abundant global supplies. Hard Red Spring (HRS) edged $1/ton higher to $236, while Hard Red Winter (HRW) eased $1/ton to $217. Soft Red Winter (SRW) and Soft White Wheat (SWW) slipped $6/ton to $202 and $5/ton to $215, respectively.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16

Selected Exporters

  • European Union is boosted 1.5 million tons to 32.5 million with a larger crop and abundant exportable supplies.
  • Ukraine is up 500,000 tons to a record 13.5 million based on higher production.
  • United States is down 500,000 tons to 25.0 million based on intensified competition from other exporters.

Selected Importers

  • Brazil is raised 500,000 tons to 7.0 million based on lower production.
  • European Union is down 500,000 tons to 6.0 million on abundant domestic supplies.
  • Indonesia is lowered 300,000 tons to 7.8 million based on slower anticipated consumption growth.
  • Philippines is up 300,000 tons to 4.8 million with the expectation of higher feed use.