OVERVIEW

World corn production in 2015/16 is down with smaller crops in the EU and the United States. Trade is slightly higher, led by stronger demand from EU, Mexico, and Vietnam. Exports for Brazil and Ukraine are raised, more than offsetting a reduction for EU. The U.S. season-average farm price is raised slightly on a smaller crop and tighter carryin.

For 2014/15, world production is slightly higher with larger crops in Chile and India. Trade is boosted on stronger demand from China, Mexico, and Vietnam. U.S. exports are up and the season-average farm price is slightly lower.

PRICES

Since the release of the August WASDE report, U.S. corn quotes rose $8/ton to $172, widening their premium over South American origins amid lingering concerns over crop yields. Argentine quotes are up $5/ton to $158 as sales of the 2014/15 crop slow seasonally. Brazilian quotes are up just $2/ton to $161 and shipments are expected to accelerate. Black Sea quotes have dropped $18/ton to $173 as the new-crop harvest has progressed, rapidly eroding their premium over U.S. prices.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16

Selected Exporters

  • Brazilian corn is boosted 1.0 million tons to a new record 29.0 million on greater demand from the EU and record exportable supplies from the 2014/15 crop.
  • EU corn is halved to 1.0 million tons on sharply lower crop prospects.
  • Ukrainian corn is raised 1.0 million tons to 18.5 million because of higher demand from the EU.
  • Canadian barley is up 200,000 tons to 1.2 million because of greater exportable supplies and strong demand, especially from China.
  • Russian barley is up 800,000 tons to 4.5 million because of a huge boost to exportable supplies.

Selected Importers

  • Brazilian corn is lowered 200,000 tons to 600,000 because of large domestic supplies. (Imports for 2014/15 are also down 200,000 tons to 600,000.)
  • Chilean corn is down 200,000 tons to 1.6 million because of larger crop prospects. (Imports for 2014/15 are down 200,000 tons to 1.4 million.)
  • EU corn is boosted 1.0 million tons to 16.0 million as domestic supplies are projected sharply lower again this month because of hot, dry conditions.
  • Mexican corn is raised 200,000 tons to 10.5 million based on early-season purchases and continued strong domestic demand. (Imports for 2014/15 are up 700,000 tons to 11.0 million.)
  • Philippine corn is up 200,000 tons to 500,000 because of a smaller crop.
  • Turkish corn is lowered 300,000 tons to 900,000 because of greater crop prospects.
  • Vietnamese corn is boosted 1.2 million tons to 3.0 million as imported corn substitutes for cassava in feed rations. Cassava is being exported to China and used for domestic ethanol production. (Imports for 2014/15 are boosted 1.5 million to 3.5 million.)
  • Saudi barley is raised 500,000 tons to 7.5 million based on larger exportable supplies from Canada, EU, and Russia.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2014/15

Selected Exporters - based on trade data

  • U.S. corn is up 1.0 million tons to 47.0 million.
  • Paraguayan corn is raised 700,000 tons to 2.7 million.
  • Ukrainian corn is up 500,000 tons to 19.5 million.
  • EU barley is boosted 500,000 tons to 9.5 million.
  • Russian barley is raised 300,000 tons to 5.5 million.
  • U.S. sorghum is up 200,000 tons to 9.2 million.
  • Australian sorghum is up 900,000 tons to 1.5 million.

Selected Importers - based on trade data

  • Chinese corn is boosted 1.2 million tons to a record 5.5 million.
  • Japanese corn is lowered 200,000 tons to 14.7 million.
  • Turkish corn is up 200,000 tons to 2.2 million.
  • Chinese barley is raised 500,000 tons to 8.8 million.
  • Chinese sorghum is up 1.5 million tons to 10.0 million.