OVERVIEW

World corn production in 2015/16 is down marginally as smaller crops in China and EU more than offset gains in Brazil, Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. At the global level, trade is up, led by higher EU import demand. Exporters are shuffled, with higher projections for Argentina, Brazil, Russia, and Ukraine more than offsetting reduced forecasts for EU and Serbia. U.S. exports are lowered on strong competition from South America. U.S. imports are raised slightly, and the season-average farm price is reduced.

For 2014/15, world production is higher with larger crops in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico. Trade is higher, led by stronger demand from China, EU, South Korea, and Mexico. Exports for Argentina, EU, and Ukraine are raised. U.S. exports are unchanged, imports are up slightly, and the season-average farm price is unchanged.

PRICES

Quotes for corn from all origins are down since the release of the July WASDE report, generally touching 5-year lows. U.S. quotes dropped $25/ton to $170 on generally favorable growing conditions, a stronger dollar, and competition from South American supplies. Argentine and Brazilian quotes fell about $30/ton each to $157 and $163, respectively, maintaining a discount to U.S. prices. Black Sea quotes, although falling $6/ton to $191, remain elevated relative to other origins, likely reflecting tight old-crop supplies and strong demand from EU and China.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16

Selected Exporters

  • U.S. corn is down 1.0 million tons to 47.0 million on strong competition from South America.
  • Argentine corn is raised 500,000 tons to 15.5 million on larger exportable supplies from the recent (2014/15) harvest. (Exports for 2014/15 are up 1.0 million tons to 19.0 million.)
  • Brazilian corn is boosted 1.5 million tons to 28.0 million on higher crop prospects for both the 2014/15 and 2015/16 harvests.
  • EU corn is slashed 500,000 tons to 2.0 million as crop prospects are sharply lower this month. (Exports for 2014/15 are up 300,000 tons to 3.8 million.)
  • Russian corn is raised 500,000 tons to 4.0 million on larger exportable supplies, and greater EU demand.
  • Serbian corn is cut 1.0 million tons to 1.8 million as hot, dry conditions reduce crop prospects.
  • Ukrainian corn is up 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million on larger exportable supplies, greater EU demand, and lower Serbian competition. (Exports for 2014/15 are up 1.0 million tons to 19.0 million.)
  • Canadian barley is down 300,000 tons to 1.0 million because of tighter exportable supplies. Production, supplies, and ending stocks are at multi-decade lows.
  • EU barley is down 500,000 tons to 7.0 million because of tight exportable supplies. (Exports for the trade year ending September 2015 are boosted 200,000 tons to 9.0 million because of large early-season sales as indicated by export licenses.)
  • Ukrainian barley is doubled to 4.0 million tons on a much larger crop and lower competition. (Exports for 2014/15 are boosted 800,000 tons to 3.5 million.)
  • U.S. sorghum is raised 1.0 million tons to a new record 11.0 million based on greater exportable supplies and continued strong demand from China.
  • Argentine sorghum is lowered 200,000 tons to 1.5 million because of weak demand from Chile and Colombia. (Exports for 2014/15 are cut 300,000 tons to 1.2 million.)

Selected Importers

  • U.S. corn is raised 100,000 tons to 750,000 on a continued higher level of imports from the EU (Imports for 2014/15 are raised 50,000 tons to 750,000.)
  • EU corn is boosted by 1.0 million tons to 15.0 million as domestic grain supplies are projected lower again this month because of hot, dry conditions. EU surpasses Japan as the world's largest corn importer. (Imports for 2014/15 are raised 500,000 tons to 9.0 million.)
  • Japanese corn is cut 200,000 tons to 14.8 million because of slightly weaker demand from both feed and non-feed sectors.
  • Venezuelan corn is lowered 300,000 tons to 2.0 million because of weak demand arising from a sluggish economy. (Imports for 2014/15 are cut 400,000 tons to 2.0 million.)
  • Saudi barley is raised 500,000 tons to 7.0 million based on tighter carryin supplies and larger exportable supplies from Ukraine.
  • Chinese sorghum is up 1.0 tons to 11.0 million because of continued new-crop sales and larger exportable supplies from the United States.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2014/15

Selected Importers- based on trade data

  • Chinese corn is boosted 1.3 million tons to 4.3 million.
  • Mexican corn is up 300,000 tons to 10.3 million.
  • South Korean corn is up 400,000 tons to 10.0 million.
  • Chinese barley is raised 300,000 tons to 8.3 million.
  • Iranian barley is up 200,000 tons to 2.0 million.
  • Moroccan barley is lowered 200,000 tons to 300,000