OVERVIEW

For 2015/16, global production is down from last month, but still a record, with declines in Argentina, Cambodia, Iraq, South Korea, Thailand, and the United States. Global trade and stocks are up marginally, while consumption is down slightly. U.S. exports are revised down slightly.

For 2014/15, global production is virtually unchanged this month, while trade is reduced due to lower exports by Argentina and Thailand. U.S. exports are also lowered this month.

Thailand is expected to lose its position as top exporter in 2015 due to stiffer competition from India. Prices for Thai 100B have been higher than comparable Indian rice (5 percent broken) for the past year. While Thai exports to the Philippines and Iraq are substantially larger than a year ago, shipments to Africa, Europe, and Western Hemisphere are 10 to 20 percent smaller. The situation is expected to be short-lived, as exports are currently forecast to rebound in the coming year. However, low reservoir levels and limited availability of irrigation water could impact the upcoming crop and export prospects.

India's exports to nearby markets, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, have been robust and shipments to markets in Africa and the Middle East are running well ahead of last year's pace. Continued foreign demand has boosted India's prices, and the gap has converged with Thai 100B. However, the pace of India's exports is expected to slow in the coming year as supplies tighten.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES for 2015

  • Argentina's exports are cut 160,000 tons to 400,000 because of a slow pace of sales and shipments.
  • Thailand's exports are reduced 1.0 million tons to 9.0 million reflecting stiffer competition from India in key markets.
  • Brazil's imports are down 100,000 tons to 500,000 to reflect a slow pace of shipments from Argentina and Uruguay.
  • Sri Lanka's imports are up 100,000 tons to 350,000 on continued large purchases from India.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES for 2016

  • Argentina's exports are cut 100,000 tons to 480,000 on a smaller crop.
  • Cambodia's exports are cut 200,000 tons to 1.0 million on reduced production.
  • India's exports are up 500,000 tons to 9.0 million reflecting competitiveness.
  • Vietnam's exports are boosted 100,000 tons to 7.0 million to partly offset reduced exports by Cambodia.