Farmers expect lower levels of production for most field crops this year compared with the bumper crops on the Canadian Prairies in 2013. However, soybean production could climb to a sixth consecutive record high.

At the time of this survey, some Prairie farmers reported harvest areas being subject to damaging weather events, such as hail and snow.

Wheat

Nationally, total wheat production is expected to fall 26.8% from 2013 to 27.5 million tonnes. Harvested area is expected to decline 10.5% to 23.1 million acres, while average yield is expected to fall 18.2% to 43.7 bushels per acre.

Saskatchewan anticipates production to decline 26.9% to 13.4 million tonnes. Average yield is expected to be 38.8 bushels per acre, 19.0% lower than in 2013.

Alberta (-24.0%) and Manitoba (-34.5%) are also expecting lower production.

Canola

Canola production is anticipated to decline 21.6% from the record high in 2013 to 14.1 million tonnes. Most of this decrease can be attributed to lower expected average yield, down 19.8% to 32.1 bushels per acre nationally.

Farmers in Saskatchewan expect a 20.2% decline in yield this year. As a result, production is expected to decrease 22.9% to 6.9 million tonnes.

Alberta farmers expect production to decline 17.8% from 2013 to 4.9 million tonnes. This is mainly driven by a 19.2% drop in yield to 35.3 bushels per acre.

In Manitoba, production is anticipated to fall 25.7% from 2013 to 2.1 million tonnes.

Soybeans

Canadian farmers reported soybean production could reach another record level in 2014 at 6.0 million tonnes.

Production in Ontario is expected to increase 10.3% to 3.6 million tonnes. A 16.8% increase in harvested area is expected to drive the overall gain compared with 2013. Average yield is expected to decline 5.7% to 43.3 bushels per acre.

Farmers in Quebec expect overall output to reach the 1.0 million tonne mark for the first time in 2014. As in Ontario, a larger harvested area (+19.8%) is expected to boost production.

Manitoba is anticipating a stable level of production in 2014 at 1.1 million tonnes. Higher harvested area (+15.8%) is expected to be offset by a 5.0 bushel per acre decrease in yield from 2013 to 32.6 bushels per acre.

Corn for grain

Nationally, production of corn for grain is anticipated to decline 19.7% from the record high of 14.2 million tonnes in 2013 to 11.4 million tonnes this year.

In Ontario, farmers expect to harvest 1.9 million acres, a 15.8% decrease from 2013. Consequently, production is expected to decline 18.2% to 7.4 million tonnes.

Quebec farmers also expect a lower harvested area of corn for grain, down 13.8% to 873,500 acres. As a result, production is anticipated to decline 15.6% from 2013 to 3.2 million tonnes.

Barley and oats

Canadian farmers are expecting barley production to decrease 30.5% from 2013 to 7.1 million tonnes. A decrease in both harvested area (down 19.6% to 5.3 million acres) and yield (down 13.5% to 62.0 bushels per acre) are expected to account for the overall decline.

At the national level, production of oats is expected to decrease 31.2% to 2.7 million tonnes. The decrease results from anticipated declines in both harvested area (down 20.5% to 2.2 million acres) and an average yield of 79.7 bushels per acre, down 13.5% from 2013.

Note: The September Farm Survey of crop production covering about 9,300 Canadian farms was conducted from September 4 to 14, 2014. Farmers were asked to report their estimated area, yield and production of grains, oilseeds and special crops.

Final production estimates for 2014 will be released on December 4, 2014, and are subject to revision for two years.

Percentage changes are calculated using unrounded data.

September estimates of production of principal field crops

 

2012 (final), t

2013 (final), t

September 20141 (preliminary), t

2012 to 2013, %

2013 to Sep 2014, %

Total wheat2

27 205 200

37 529 600

27 481 300

38.0

-26.8

Spring wheat

18 845 400

27 238 700

19 936 700

44.5

-26.8

Durum wheat

4 626 600

6 504 500

4 755 900

40.6

-26.9

Winter wheat

3 733 200

3 786 400

2 788 700

1.4

-26.3

Canola

13 868 500

17 965 800r

14 079 900

29.5

-21.6

Corn for grain

13 060 100

14 193 800

11 396 900

8.7

-19.7

Barley

8 012 300

10 237 100

7 119 600

27.8

-30.5

Soybeans

5 086 400

5 358 900r

5 960 800

5.4

11.2

Dry field peas

3 340 800

3 960 800r

3 508 300

18.6

-11.4

Oats

2 811 900

3 905 600r

2 685 800

38.9

-31.2

Lentils

1 537 900

2 172 800r

1 755 600

41.3

-19.2

Flaxseed

488 900

723 900r

921 600

48.1

27.3

Total dry beans

274 400

205 900

287 600

-25.0

39.7

Mustard seed

118 600

154 500

178 700

30.3

15.7

Canary seed

149 700

131 000

138 800

-12.5

6.0

Chick peas

161 400

169 400

133 200

5.0

-21.4

Sunflower seed

86 900

51 900

74 800

-40.3

44.1

r revised

1. The methodology used for estimates for the Atlantic provinces and British Columbia was modified in 2014. For more information, see note to readers.

2. Represents the sum of winter wheat, spring wheat and durum wheat