Wheat Highlights July 13, 2015 July 13, 2015
- Thailand bought a cargo of Black Sea feed wheat
- Russia's Ag Min said Russia exported about 255 TMT of grain between July 1-8, 2015/16, including wheat -115 TMT, barley - 58 TMT, corn - 80 TMT
- European Commission estimated 2015/16 EU grain crop at 307.0 MMT down 6.7% from 2014/15 record crop (329.1 MMT). Including soft wheat crop at 139.9 MMT vs. 148.8 MMT in 2014/15
- USDA estimated 2015/16 US all wheat production at 2.148 billion bushels, that matched the average market guess, but up slightly from 2.121 BB in June and vs. 2.026 BB in 2014/15. USDA also boosted its 2015/16 US carryover estimate to 842 million bushels from 814 MB reported in June and vs. 753 MB in 2014/15, but below average trade estimates of 861 MB
- USDA projected global 2015/16 wheat production to reach 722.0 MMT, up by 0.4 MMT from previous estimate, but still below the 2014/15 record (725.9 MMT). In July's forecast larger 2015/16 crops in Russia (+ 2 MMT to 57 MMT), Kazakhstan (+1 MMT to 13.5 MMT), Ukraine (+1 MMT to 24 MMT), and the United States (+0.74 MMT to 58.5 MMT) more than offset lower production in EU (-2.8 MMT to 147.9 MMT) and Canada (-1.5 MMT to 27.5 MMT). Global trade is nearly unchanged as larger imports for China, EU, and India offset decreases for Iran, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, and the United States. Exports are raised for Russia, Ukraine, and the United States but lowered for Canada and EU.
- USDA sharply raised its global 2014/15 wheat carryover estimate by nearly 12 MMT to 212.06 MMT above the range of trade expectations of 195.40 -204.00 MMT, due to bigger stocks in China (+11.4 MMT to 74.29 MMT) and India (+0.7 MMT to 17.2 MMT). Chinese stocks for 2013/14 were also revised upward by 5 MMT to 65.27 MMT and for 2015/16 up by 17.15 MMT to 88.79 MMT. This changes has resulted in global 2015/16 wheat stocks at a record high of 219.8 MMT up from 202.4 MMT estimated in June and above trade expectations of 192.40-204.41 MMT
- Thailand's rice export association lowered its annual target from 10 to 9.5 MMT, due to a slowdown in global economy and fear that drought in Thailand could slash output for the year