OVERVIEW

Global production in 2015/16 is up slightly as larger crops in Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and the United States more than offset lower production in EU and Canada. Global trade is nearly unchanged as larger imports for China, EU, and India offset decreases for Iran, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, and the United States. Exports are raised for Russia, Ukraine, and the United States but lowered for Canada and EU. The season-average farm price is raised from last month.

For 2014/15, global trade is nearly unchanged. U.S. imports and exports are lowered slightly.

U.S. PRICES:

Prices for all classes rose over the last month on weather concerns and spillover from rising corn prices. Hard Red Winter (HRW) jumped $15/ton to $254 and Soft Red Winter (SRW) surged $27/ton to $243. Hard Red Spring (HRS) was up $5/ton to $285. Soft White Winter (SWW) surged $40 higher to $277 based on hot and dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16

Selected Exporters

  • Canada is lowered 1.0 million tons to 20.0 million with a smaller crop.
  • EU is slashed 1.5 million tons to 31.0 million based on lower production and intensified competition from Russia and Ukraine.
  • Pakistan is down 400,000 tons to 600,000 due to large, competitive supplies in the Black Sea.
  • Russia is boosted 1.0 million tons to 22.0 million based on a larger crop.
  • Ukraine is raised 1.0 million tons to 12.5 million on higher production.
  • United States is up 750,000 tons to 26.3 million based on reduced competition from Canada.

Selected Importers

  • China is raised 800,000 tons to 2.0 million based on recent purchases and tight supplies of high-quality wheat.
  • EU is boosted 1.0 million tons to 6.5 million with larger imports of competitively-priced feed-quality wheat from Ukraine.
  • India is doubled to 1.0 million on tight supplies of high-quality wheat and reports of purchases from Australia.
  • Iran is cut 1.0 million tons to 4.5 million as purchases are expected to slow in light of large domestic supplies.
  • Kazakhstan is down 375,000 tons to 25,000 based on a larger crop.
  • Nigeria is lowered 350,000 tons to 4.5 million on slower-than-expected demand growth.
  • United States is cut 300,000 tons to 3.5 million with smaller imports expected from Canada.