Record Brazilian Corn Exports

Brazilian corn exports are projected to rise to a new record for 2015/16 (Oct/Sep basis) based on a forecast record harvest in 2014/15, supporting Brazil as the world's second-largest corn exporter. This is a continuation of a higher plane of production and exports for Brazil that began in response to elevated global corn prices a few years ago. Production and exports have also been bolstered by 4 years of favorable weather (particularly for second-crop corn), government support programs for producers, and strong global import demand.

Larger supplies are able to meet both growing demand for feed use and exports. The bulk of export shipments are from the safrinha crop and occur from August through December, after the soybean export program, and compete directly with U.S. and Ukrainian corn supplies during the Northern Hemisphere harvests.

In recent years, close to half of Brazilian shipments were to Southeast and East Asia, eroding market share for both the United States and Argentina. Brazil has also been a top supplier to the Middle East where it competes with Ukraine and Argentina. In 2015/16, Brazil should benefit from larger import demand from the EU and tighter exportable supplies from both Ukraine and Argentina.

OVERVIEW

World corn production in 2015/16 is down as smaller crops in the United States and the EU more than offset higher production in Brazil and China. Global trade is higher on stronger demand from the EU. U.S. exports are lowered and the season-average farm price is boosted on tighter exportable supplies.

For 2014/15, world production is higher with larger crops in the EU and Brazil. Trade is higher based on stronger demand from the EU and indications of higher-than-expected exports from Argentina and Brazil as shipments resume seasonally. U.S. exports are unchanged, but the season-average farm price is raised.

PRICES

Corn quotes from all origins jumped after USDA's June 1 Grain Stocks report implied higher disappearance and the Acreage report showed smaller area planted and harvested. Since the release of the June WASDE reports, U.S. quotes are up $21/ton to $191, supported by the USDA reports and concerns over excess rain in parts of the U.S. Corn Belt. Argentine and Brazilian quotes are each up about $20/ton to $185 and $188, respectively, but remain competitive relative to other origins as their harvests progress. Ukrainian quotes jumped $21/ton to $196 as unfavorable weather in the EU raised prospects for higher EU corn imports.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16

Selected Exporters

  • U.S. corn is down 500,000 tons to 48.0 million as tighter exportable supplies are making prices uncompetitive compared with Brazil.
  • Argentine corn is lowered 1.0 million tons to 15.0 million as more is expected to be shipped prior to October in advance of Brazilian and U.S. shipments. (Consequently, exports for 2014/15 are boosted 1.0 million tons to 18.0 million.)
  • Brazilian corn is boosted by 2.5 million tons to a record 26.5 million because of a record 2014/15 crop and greater exportable supplies. (Exports for 2014/15 are raised 500,000 tons to 22.0 million.)
  • Serbian corn is cut 200,000 tons to 2.8 million with smaller exportable supplies.
  • Australian barley is up 500,000 tons to 6.0 million because of strong global demand and slightly larger exportable supplies.
  • Canadian barley is down 200,000 tons to 1.3 million because of lower exportable supplies. (Exports for 2014/15 are up 200,000 tons to 1.5 million on trade data.)
  • Russian barley is up 200,000 tons to 3.7 million on a larger crop and competitive prices compared with the EU. (Exports for 2014/15 are boosted 200,000 tons to 5.2 million.)
  • U.S. sorghum is raised 1.5 million tons to a new record 10.0 million based on greater crop prospects as indicated by the June 30 Acreage report and strong demand from China.

Selected Importers

  • EU corn is boosted sharply by 2.0 million tons to 14.0 million as grain supplies are projected lower this month because of hot, dry conditions. Continued elevated global demand for EU barley exports and larger exportable corn supplies out of Brazil will lead to substitution of corn into feed rations.
  • Chinese sorghum is up 1.0 million tons to a new record 10.0 million based on strong demand and greater U.S. supplies.
  • U.S. oats are lowered 100,000 tons to 1.6 million on prospects for a larger crop and reduced Canadian supplies.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2014/15

Selected Exporters

  • EU corn is raised 500,000 tons to 3.5 million; barley is raised 300,000 tons to 8.8 million, both based on licenses and trade data.
  • Indian corn is cut 500,000 tons to 1.0 million as relatively high domestic prices make exports uncompetitive.
  • Australian sorghum is lowered 200,000 tons to 600,000 because of smaller new-crop supplies.

Selected Importers

  • EU corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 8.5 million based on licenses and trade data.
  • Iranian barley is raised 300,000 tons to 1.8 million based on trade data.