Rice. World Markets and Trade. July 2015 – USDA

OVERVIEW

For 2015/16, global production is down from last month due to reduced crops for Thailand, Madagascar, North Korea, and the United States, but still at a record. Global trade, consumption, and stocks are all down slightly. U.S. exports are unchanged.

For 2014/15, global production is up marginally from last month. Gains for Laos, Brazil, and Argentina more than offset a reduction for the Philippines. Global trade is up slightly as other exporting countries backfill behind Thailand. Global consumption and stocks are marginally lower. U.S. exports are lowered slightly, reflecting slower shipments of medium/short-grains.

Just 4 months into the year, Colombia's imports from the United States have soared, doubling the total purchased during all of last year. The unprecedented pace is largely attributed to high Colombian prices in February (the highest since at least 1996) in response to tight domestic supplies. Prices have eased since then, but remain elevated well above last year's level. The import surge has far exceeded the safeguard trigger level established under the Trade Promotion Agreement (TPA). However, there is little impact as the punitive tariff is the same as the overquota rate of 80 percent since tariff reductions have not yet started. Under the TPA, tariff reductions start on January 1, 2018 (Year 7). Even with the over-quota tariff, imported U.S. rice remains competitive. As local supplies become more available with the summer harvest, imports for the remainder of the year are expected to slow.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES for 2015

  • Burma's exports are up 150,000 tons to 2.0 million on larger shipments to China and the European Union.
  • India's exports are boosted 1.2 million tons to a record 11.0 million on continued strong shipments to Nepal, Bangladesh, and countries in the Middle East.
  • Pakistan's exports are up 100,000 tons to 4.0 million reflecting a strong pace to date.
  • Thailand's exports are reduced 1.0 million tons to 10.0 million to reflect lagging sales.
  • South Africa's imports are down 100,000 tons to 1.0 million on trade data.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES for 2016

  • Thailand's exports are cut 800,000 tons to 10.2 million on reduced supplies.
  • Exports by Burma, Pakistan, and Vietnam are boosted 200,000 tons each to 2.2 million, 4.0 million, and 6.9 million respectively, backfilling behind Thailand.
  • South Africa's imports are down 200,000 tons to 1.0 million reflecting stable demand.