Tight Markets to Boost Soybean and Product Demand

Soybean supplies are expected to expand in 2015/16, whereas supplies of rapeseed and sunflowerseed are forecast to contract. Declining rapeseed and sunflowerseed harvests, combined with continued strong demand, are forecast to drive stocks down to levels not seen in years. The stocks-to-use ratio, an indicator of the tightness of the market, is expected to drop dramatically, decreasing more than 30 percent year-to-year. When measured as a percent of demand, rapeseed stocks are expected to shrink to the lowest level in over a decade, whereas sunflowerseed stocks could fall to the lowest in more than 15 years.

In contrast, soybeans are expected to have a more robust stocks-to-use ratio in the coming year as stocks continue to climb. As supplies of rapeseed and sunflowerseed tighten, buyers may find it more advantageous to switch purchases to soybean meal and oil as their relative prices are expected to be more competitive in the coming months. As a result, trade in soybeans and products are all forecast to rise to compensate for the more limited supplies of the alternatives.

OVERVIEW

2015/16

Global soybean production is raised this month, mostly due to expanded U.S. area and production. In contrast, global rapeseed and sunflowerseed production is adjusted down, below the previous year's record. Soybean trade is forecast at a new record, while soybean meal trade is reduced as several markets shift to importing beans and crushing domestically. The U.S. season-average farm price is raised to $9.25 per bushel.

2014/15

Global soybean production is up on a larger crop in Argentina. World trade is raised, supported by higher imports by China, Russia, EU, and Iran. Exports are raised for Brazil and the United States. U.S. soybean stocks are down based on higher projected crush and exports. In addition, residual use is raised based on indications from USDA's Grain Stocks report. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in June averaged $388/ton, up $3 from last month.

As of the week ending July 2, U.S. 2014/15 soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 30.0 million tons compared to 27.6 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 50.5 million tons, compared to 45.6 million for the same period last year.

2014/15 TRADE OUTLOOK

  • United States
    • Soybean exports are up 408,000 tons to 49.7 million on strong export commitments.
  • Argentina soybean meal exports are reduced 1.1 million tons to 27.4 million on reduced crush and exports.
  • Brazil
    • Soybean exports are raised 1.2 million tons to 46.8 million on a stronger pace of trade to date.
    • Soybean meal exports are up 400,000 tons to 14.6 million, reflecting the current pace of trade.
  • China
    • Soybean imports are up 500,000 tons to 74.0 million on stronger trade with South America.
    • Rapeseed imports are raised 100,000 tons to 4.2 million, reflecting an increased volume of oilseed imports relative to products.
  • European Union soybean imports are raised 200,000 tons to nearly 13.0 million, reflecting increasing crush and greater demand for soybean meal.
  • India
    • Soybean meal exports are down 100,000 tons to 1.2 million reflecting sluggish exports to date.
    • Palm oil imports are raised 150,000 tons to 9.0 million and soybean oil imports are increased 250,000 tons to 2.5 million on growing demand for vegetable oil.
  • Indonesia palm oil exports are up 500,000 tons to 23.0 million on stronger trade to date and increased availability due to lower domestic production of biodiesel.
  • Iran
    • Soybean meal imports are trimmed 250,000 tons to 2.3 million on growing domestic crush and a shift away from purchases of Indian meal.
    • Soybean imports are raised 200,000 tons to 700,000 due to growing availability of soybeans in the global market.
  • Japan soybean meal imports are reduced 200,000 tons to nearly 1.8 million reflecting a slower pace of trade to date.
  • Pakistan
    • Soybean meal imports are down 100,000 tons to 750,000 on slowing trade resulting from the implementation of a higher import tariff.
    • Soybean imports are raised 100,000 tons to 450,000 as domestic crush becomes more competitive.
  • Paraguay soybean exports are down 200,000 tons to 4.6 million due to lower production.
  • Russia soybean imports are up 270,000 tons to 1.9 million reflecting the stronger pace of trade.
  • South Africa soybean meal imports are reduced 100,000 tons to 450,000 as rising domestic production reduces the need for imports.
  • Thailand
    • Soybean meal imports are raised 100,000 tons to 3.0 million on current trade to date.
    • Palm oil exports plummet 150,000 tons to 50,000 due to lower production.
  • Turkey soybean imports are trimmed 150,000 tons to 2.0 million reflecting a slowdown in trade to date.
  • Ukraine soybean exports are increased 100,000 tons to 2.1 million on a stronger pace of trade.

2015/16 TRADE OUTLOOK

  • Argentina
    • Soybean exports are up 200,000 tons to 8.7 million on greater demand anticipated in 2016.
    • Soybean meal exports are down 800,000 tons to 30.2 million reflecting 2014/15's reduced crush and trade volume.
  • Australia rapeseed exports are raised 100,000 tons to 2.8 million on anticipated stronger export demand.
  • Brazil soybean exports are up 1.0 million tons to 50.8 million reflecting higher demand and this season's record monthly export volumes.
  • Canada rapeseed exports are reduced 100,000 tons to 8.1 million on a lower production forecast.
  • European Union soybean imports are raised 300,000 to 13.1 million reflecting growing demand for protein feed amid lower rapeseed and sunflowerseed production forecasts.
  • India
    • Soybean meal exports are lowered 300,000 tons to 2.0 million on competition from other suppliers and reduced exports to nearby markets.
    • Palm oil imports are raised 150,000 tons to 9.6 million while soybean oil imports are up 200,000 tons to 2.7 million on continued growth of vegetable oil demand.
  • Indonesia palm oil exports are increased 500,000 tons to 24.0 million on increased availability as growth in domestic industrial use remains limited.
  • Iran
    • Soybean meal imports are down 350,000 tons to 2.4 million on growing domestic crush.
    • Soybean imports are raised 150,000 tons to 750,000 due to the larger domestic crush.
  • Japan soybean meal imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 1.9 million on slow protein meal growth.
  • Pakistan
    • Soybean meal imports are reduced 300,000 tons to 700,000 reflecting the new higher import tariff for soybean meal.
    • Soybean imports climb 400,000 tons to 1.0 million due to increased utilization of crush capacity.
  • Russia soybean imports are up 200,000 tons to 1.8 million reflecting continued strength in domestic demand.
  • South Africa soybean meal imports are down 144,000 tons to 400,000 as rising domestic production reduces the need for imports.