OVERVIEW

World corn production in 2015/16 is slightly lower as reduced projections for Zambia, Zimbabwe, Nepal, and the EU offset a larger forecast crop in Russia. Global trade is higher. U.S. exports and the season-average farm price are unchanged.

For 2014/15, world production is higher with larger crops in Brazil and Argentina. Global imports are unchanged as increases in Turkey and Peru offset declines in Japan and Venezuela. Argentine and Russian exports are raised. U.S. exports and the season-average farm price are both unchanged.

PRICES

Since the release of the May WASDE report, U.S. corn quotes have become more competitive relative to other origins, falling $4/ton to $170/ton on reports of mostly favorable growing conditions in the Corn Belt. With its new-crop harvest about half-way complete, Argentina's quotes rose and are now just above U.S. prices. Brazilian quotes are also up, nearly equaling U.S prices. Ukrainian quotes are slightly higher than other origins at $172/ton.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2015/16

Selected Exporters

  • Russian corn is raised sharply by 1.0 million tons to 3.5 million based on higher crop prospects. (Exports for 2014/15 are up 300,000 tons to 2.8 million.)
  • Zambian corn is boosted 300,000 tons to 800,000 on large exportable supplies despite a smaller crop. Regional demand, particularly from Zimbabwe, is robust.

Selected Importers

  • Chilean corn is up 200,000 tons to 1.7 million because of tighter domestic feed grain supplies (smaller oats crop).
  • Japanese corn is lowered 200,000 tons to 15.0 million because of slow trade in the current year and feed demand that is expected to remain sluggish. (Imports for 2014/15 are down by 400,000 tons to 15.0 million).
  • Zimbabwean corn is raised 200,000 tons to 800,000 on reduced crop prospects.

TRADE CHANGES IN 2014/15

Selected Exporters

  • Argentine corn is up 1.0 million tons to 17.0 million on strong new-crop shipments and greater exportable supplies.
  • Russian barley is raised 300,000 tons to 5.0 million based on trade data.

Selected Importers

  • Turkish corn is boosted 500,000 tons to 2.0 million based on trade data (shipments from Russia).
  • Venezuelan corn is lowered by 200,000 tons to 2.4 million because of sluggish shipments.