OVERVIEW

For 2015/16, global production is still projected at a record, but marginally lower this month. Global trade, consumption, and stocks are little changed. U.S. exports are projected higher. For 2014/15, global production, consumption, and stocks are up from last month, but trade is down slightly. U.S. exports are lowered on the pace of shipments.

The United States has been the top supplier for rough rice in the global market. In recent years, however, exports have leveled off as some importers, concerned over U.S. quality have turned to other sources. Brazil's emergence as a supplier has eroded U.S. share particularly in the Western Hemisphere, a key destination for U.S. exports. Others, mainly Russia and India, have made inroads into the market supplying near-by countries. Nevertheless, the United States is expected to dominate rough rice trade due to logistical advantages and the ability to ship large quantities. Additionally, most exporting countries prefer selling milled rice and capturing the value added from milling in the country. Rough rice accounts for about a third of U.S. rice exports.

SELECTED TRADE CHANGES for 2015

  • Bangladesh's imports are up 100,000 tons to 700,000 on large purchases from India to date.
  • Philippines' imports are raised 100,000 tons to 1.8 million reflecting large shipments to date.
  • Tanzania's imports are halved to 100,000 tons on a larger crop.