Soybean Meal Leads Growth in Global Oilseed Meal Trade

Soybean meal represents about three-quarters of global trade in oilseed meals. Yet despite the large market share, growth in soybean meal trade for the period between 2011/12 and 2013/14 totaled only 1 million tons. Other meals, representing much smaller market shares, showed larger volume growth. During this period, tight soybean supplies constrained the production of soybean meal in exporting countries. In contrast, expanding supplies of rapeseed, sunflowerseed, and palm kernel provided alternative oilseed meals. Total import demand was kept in check by high meal prices, driven mostly by soybean meal.

However, with record soybean crops in the United States in 2014 and South America in early 2015, supplies are no longer restricting soybean meal availability. The U.S. season-average price has also declined from near $540/ton to a current forecast of $360/ton in 2015/16. These lower prices, along with stable to declining supplies of competing meals, are projected to boost soybean meal exports, allowing it to capture close to 90 percent of global meal trade growth in the coming forecast period.

OVERVIEW

2015/16

Global soybean production is raised this month, now slightly below the record set in the prior year. Trade is also forecast to rise. Stocks are lowered but still remain a record. Soybean meal trade is forecast to expand, with higher exports expected from Brazil. The U.S. season-average farm price is unchanged at $9.00 per bushel.

2014/15

Global soybean production is increased on a larger crop in Argentina. U.S. exports are raised to a new record on strong sales and commitments, while Russian exports are raised on a larger production forecast. Imports are raised as increases in Pakistan, Russia, Brazil, and Canada more than offset losses in Indonesia. Global stocks are lowered mainly on reductions in Brazil. The U.S. seasonaverage farm price is unchanged at $10.05 per bushel.

SOYBEAN PRICES

U.S. export bids, FOB Gulf, in May averaged $385 per ton, down $2 from last month, reflecting plentiful global supplies, following the record South American crop.

As of the week ending May 28, U.S. 2014/15 soybean commitments (outstanding sales plus accumulated exports) to China totaled 30.1 million tons compared to 27.6 million a year ago. Total commitments to the world are 50.1 million tons, compared to 45.0 million for the same period last year.

2014/15 TRADE OUTLOOK

  • United States
    • Soybean exports are up 272,000 tons to 49.3 million on strong export commitments.
  • Argentina soybean meal exports are down 485,000 tons to 28.5 million on a slower-thanexpected pace of trade.
  • Australia rapeseed exports are trimmed 100,000 tons to 2.4 million on weaker demand, mainly from the EU.
  • Brazil
    • Soybean imports are up 100,000 tons to 400,000 on stronger trade, mainly from Paraguay.
    • Soybean meal exports are raised 250,000 tons to 14.2 million reflecting the current pace of crush and trade.
    • Soybean oil exports are increased 200,000 tons to 1.4 million on stronger trade to date.
  • Canada soybean imports are up 100,000 tons to 400,000 on increased trade with the United States.
  • China soybean oil imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 900,000 on slower trade to date and expected weaker growth in oil consumption.
  • Egypt
    • Sunflowerseed oil imports are lowered 200,000 tons to 600,000 reflecting weaker trade to date in response to reduced global availability.
    • Palm oil imports are up 200,000 tons to 1.4 million, offsetting declines in sunflowerseed oil.
  • European Union
    • Sunflowerseed exports are down 100,000 tons to 600,000 on a slower pace of trade.
    • Rapeseed imports are lowered 350,000 tons to 2.5 million as abundant domestic supplies reduce the need for imports.
    • Soybean meal imports are raised 250,000 tons to 19.6 million reflecting the current pace of trade.
    • Sunflowerseed oil imports are increased 100,000 tons to 950,000 on trade to date.
  • India soybean oil imports are raised 250,000 tons to 2.2 million due to lower domestic crush of soybeans.
  • Indonesia soybean imports are trimmed 200,000 tons to 2.1 million on slower imports to date, a reflection of the slower growth rate of soybean use in the food sector.
  • Pakistan
    • Soybean meal imports are down 100,000 tons to 850,000 as higher import tariffs have limited trade volumes.
    • Soybean imports climb 250,000 tons to 350,000 on increased trade with the United States and Brazil, reflecting a shift toward domestic crush.
  • Russia soybean imports and exports are both up 130,000 tons to 1.6 million and 230,000 tons,respectively.

2015/16 TRADE OUTLOOK

  • Brazil
    • Soybean imports are lowered 100,000 tons to 450,000 on high domestic supplies.
    • Soybean meal exports are up 300,000 tons to 14.8 million on increased crush and availability.
    • Soybean oil exports are raised 130,000 tons to 1.4 million on larger exportable supplies.
  • Bangladesh soybean imports are up 100,000 tons to 800,000 on increased demand due to competitively priced beans as well as growing domestic crush capacity.
  • European Union rapeseed imports are reduced 200,000 tons to 2.4 million on a larger production forecast.
  • Indonesia soybean imports are trimmed 200,000 tons to 2.3 million reflecting a more moderate rate of consumption growth.
  • Pakistan soybean imports are increased 200,000 tons to 600,000 in line with the previous year's growth.
  • Russia soybean exports are raised 150,000 tons to 250,000 following a larger production forecast.
  • Ukraine rapeseed exports are reduced 200,000 tons to 1.5 million on a lower production forecast.